Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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The “2020 Iowa Democratic Caucuses Winner?” Augur market will resolve invalid ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2020-02-13; known on 2020-04-23; judged wrong by enolan on 2020-03-09.
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[Personal] I'll finish my LW sequence on Machine Learning with 1 post per week (end of Sunday CET) without ever being late ( 50% confidence )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-01-16; known on 2021-05-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2020-03-08.
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[Bill Wurtz releases a new video by] 3/1 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tumblewood on 2020-02-21; known on 2020-10-02; judged wrong by Tumblewood on 2020-03-07.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Elizabeth Warren to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Andrew Yang to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states, including DC, not won by Biden, Buttigieg, Sanders, Warren, or Yang to be] 41 to 51 ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Pete Buttigieg to be] 0 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Bernie Sanders to be] 0 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primaries: Number of states (including DC) won by Joe Biden to be] 0 ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-11-22; known on 2020-08-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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Andrew Yang will win the Democratic nomination. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2020-07-20; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2020-03-05.
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WTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in February 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1) ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-07; judged right by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-03-05.
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Politics, US – Michael Bloomberg wins more total delegates in the elections held on March 3, 2020 than are won by either Joe Biden or Pete Buttigieg individually. ( 33% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-28; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-05.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Julian Castro ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Joe Biden ( 41% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged right by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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My step-sister's marriage will still be intact (not separated or divorced or remarried) five years from now. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-27; known on 2019-06-27; judged right by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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Bitcoin at 40,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-13; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] any other candidate ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Joe Biden ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged right by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 10% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Julian Castro ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Virginia winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-02; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Andrew Yang ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Kamala Harris ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] any other candidate ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Amy Klobuchar ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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[US Democratic primary: Texas winner to be] Beto O'Rourke ( 1% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-03-04; judged wrong by stepan on 2020-03-04.
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Politics, UK – Flybe receives a loan or other transfer of money aside deferred tax payments from the UK government or agent thereof before deadline. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-25; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-02.
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Health, UK – NSFT communications manager reported to have stepped down by the BBC before deadline. ( 30% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-25; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
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Politics – Seven day “reduction in violence” starting 2020-02-21 between the Taliban and US is considered to have held by both parties. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-22; known on 2020-02-29; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
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Politics, UK – UK government changes its decision to permit Huawei components in non-core parts of the UK's 5G network before 2020-02 EOM. ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-03-01.
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Health, UK – Confirmed person to person transmission of 2019-nCoV within UK before deadline. ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2020-02-01; known on 2020-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2020-02-29.
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[US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] leave rate unchanged ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-01-30; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] reduce rate ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-01-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US FOMC January 2020 rate decision to be] raise rate ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-19; known on 2020-01-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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Someone to climb Uluru within three months after doing so is banned on October 26, 2019 ( 12% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-07; known on 2020-02-27; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Bernie Sanders ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Pete Buttigieg ( 17% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Donald Cerrone ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.
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[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Justin Gaethje ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.