PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Nate Diaz ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Jorge Masvidal ( 3% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Khabib Numagomedov ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Tony Ferguson ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against Frankie Edgar ( 2% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[In 2020 Conor McGregor's first UFC fight to be] against someone else ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-10-25; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[Commodities] As of February 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of January 2020 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-03-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 39% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-02-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 46% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-02-14; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Nov-Dec-Jan 2019/2020 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2020-02-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

WTI crude futures to have been in contango on average in January 2020 (i.e., M4 > M1) ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for December 2019 to exceed 50% ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2020-02-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for December 2019 to exceed 110 ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-01-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for January 2020 to exceed 110 ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2020-02-25; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.9 ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[Commodities] As of January 2020, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of December 2019 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2020-02-14; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of January 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] January 2019 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-02-10; judged right by Cato on 2020-02-29.

[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of January 2020 to be LOWER than the rate as of] December 2019 ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2020-02-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-02-29.

Business, UK – Ryanair sues the UK government in relation to agreements between the UK government and Flybe before deadline. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2020-01-18; known on 2020-02-18; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2020-02-28.

The summed computational powers of all computers is comparable to the total brainpower of the human race. —Ray Kurzweil ( 55% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-27; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

Google's Project Jacquard will be wildly successful. We will use clothes/furniture to control both the behaviour of our devices and the data stored on — or accessed via — said devices. ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 7 ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.6 ( 90% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.5 ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.7 ( 85% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

[USDCNY: As of January 2020 EOM, the price of a dollar in terms of Chinese yuan to be] greater than 6.8 ( 81% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-08-02; known on 2020-02-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

VR technology will be available to middle-class consumers for home entertainment use by 2020 ( 75% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Ardenlk on 2017-12-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

“China does not manage to avert economic crisis (subjective)” ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

“No city where a member of the general public can ride self-driving car without attendant” ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

“Kamala Harris leads the Democratic field” ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2021 ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

Sous-vide cookers in half as many American households as microwaves. —Nancy Lebovitz ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Joe Biden ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

[US Democratic primary: Iowa winner to be] Elizabeth Warren ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-09-18; known on 2020-02-04; judged wrong by Andrew MacFie on 2020-02-26.

[US Democratic primary: New Hampshire winner to be] Cory Booker ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers )