Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI through May 2019 EOM ( 91% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-03.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in May for which data are published ( 60% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-03.
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[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before May 2019 EOM ( 56% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-03.
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[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $4500/mo ( 20% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.
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[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5000/mo ( 60% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.
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[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $5500/mo ( 75% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.
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[We will be offered the apartment for <= ] $6000/mo ( 90% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-05-19; known on 2019-05-22; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-06-03.
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A confirmed dip of at least 10% in the brightness of Tabby's Star (KIC 8462852) will be observed. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-27; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2019-06-01.
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Politics, Central America – Before 1 July 2019, Daniel Ortega ceases to be president of Nicaragua. ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-08; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-06-01.
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[US-China] Trump and Xi to meet when Trump visits Asia later in May 2019 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-06-01.
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Felix Sater testifies publicly before the end of May ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-01.
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NASDAQ, S&P500 all end 2017 lower than they started in 2017 (priced in USD) ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by bonchka on 2019-05-31.
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Virgin Galactic to pass Karman line (100km altitude) within 12 months. ( 47% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-30.
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This prediction will have fewer than five wagers ( 52% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-26; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-29.
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[Politics] NDA to win a majority of seats in Indian general election ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-28.
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German Humanist Party will get at least one seat in the European Parliament 2019 ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2018-02-04; known on 2019-05-27; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2019-05-27.
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The Brexit Party to come first in Britain in the 2019 European Parliament elections ( 64% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-02-09; known on 2019-05-27; judged right by stepan on 2019-05-27.
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[Politics] Right-populists to gain in EU parliamentary election ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-27; judged right by amadeu on 2019-05-26.
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Russia will win 2019 IIHF World Championship ( 70% confidence )
Created by stepan on 2019-05-22; known on 2019-05-26; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-05-26.
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Wikipedia's English version to be blocked in China a month from now ( 76% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-25; known on 2019-05-24; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-24.
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Someone else makes a wager on this prediction ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-24; known on 2019-05-24; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-05-24.
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House Baratheon (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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House Targaryen (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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House Stark (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged right by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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White Walkers to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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House Lannister (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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House Greyjoy (or anyone who descends from that lineage in the male line) to rule at least four regions of Westeros at the end of the TV series ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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Kingdom of Westeros to be dissolved by the end of the TV-series (No house rules more than 4 regions) ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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U.S will experience a recession before 2019 according to FRED data ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-12-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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Theranos will get more than 100 FDA approvals for blood-tests by 2019 ( 36% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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Deportations in 2018 up > 50% vs 2016 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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“Skulk” will be an evergreen keyword in Magic: The Gathering within 3 years. ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Sniffnoy on 2016-04-04; known on 2019-04-04; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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The Tyrells were (partly) responsible for the Purple Wedding. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-15; known on 2019-04-15; judged right by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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Littlefinger was (partly) responsible for the Purple Wedding. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-04-15; known on 2019-04-15; judged right by HonoreDB on 2019-05-21.
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[Politics: Indonesia's 2019 general election] to re-elect Joko Widodo as president ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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Taiwan to participate in World Health Assembly in May 2019 (observer status counts) ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Qyburn ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Yara Greyjoy ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Petyr Baelish/Littlefinger ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Melisandre ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Game of Thrones] Daenerys Targaryen's two remaining dragons Drogon and Rhaegal to both be alive and under DT's control at the end of the TV series ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-11; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Game of Thrones] Viserion the ice dragon to revert to Daenerys Targaryen's control at least once by the end of the TV series ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-11; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Jorah Mormont ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Gregor “The Mountain” Clegane ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Gendry ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Davos Seaworth ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Theon Greyjoy ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Missandei ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Sandor “The Hound” Clegane ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.
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[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Bronn ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.