Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] December 11 FOMC meeting ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] July 31 FOMC meeting ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] October 30 FOMC meeting ( 25% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[US FOMC May rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-05-02; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[US FOMC May rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[US FOMC May rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 56% confidence; 12 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 4% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during April 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-05-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.
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I will not masturbate for 2 days. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-02; known on 2019-05-03; judged right by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-04.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for March 2019 to exceed 50% ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-04-30; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-05-03.
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I will not masturbate for 1 day. ( 50% confidence )
Created by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged right by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-03.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2019 ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2020-06-01; judged right by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-02.
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A smart personal assistant will be available within 5 years ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Dori on 2015-06-26; known on 2020-06-16; judged right by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-02.
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Trump fires Lee Francis Cissna before the end of April ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-02.
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Felix Sater testifies publicly before the end of April ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-02.
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There'll be press report of significant protest in China in the next 5 years against anti-Chinese video released on the internet. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-15; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by deleteyourbrain on 2019-05-01.
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I will get something resembling a face during current run #dl #ml ( 30% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2019-05-01; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by crabman on 2019-05-01.
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Next US financial crash, and consequent recession to hit between December of 2018, and March of 2019 ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sdr on 2018-10-19; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-05-01.
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“Over a ten-year period commencing on January 1, 2008, and ending on December 31, 2017, the S & P 500 will outperform a portfolio of funds of hedge funds, when performance is measured on a basis net of fees, costs and expenses.” ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-01-31; judged right by amadeu on 2019-04-30.
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[Politics] Andrew Yang to be a guest on a major American late-night talk show before April 2019 EOM ( 36% confidence; 22 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-04-30.
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Emperor Akihito to abdicate as scheduled on 2019-04-30 ( 93% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-30.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-04-22). ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-22; known on 2019-04-29; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-29.
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Any film to outgross “Captain Marvel” in 2019 ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-29.
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[Fighting] Ronaldo Souza to beat Jack Hermansson at UFC on ESPN 3 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-12; known on 2019-04-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-29.
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[Fighting] John Lineker to beat Cory Sandhagen at UFC on ESPN 3 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-12; known on 2019-04-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-29.
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[Fighting] Jim Miller to beat Jason Gonzalez at UFC on ESPN 3 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-12; known on 2019-04-28; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-29.
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[US Politics] Mueller report to state explicitly that Donald Trump is guilty of a crime, or that sufficient evidence exists to justify indictment ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-19.
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[US Politics] Mueller report to state explicitly that Donald Trump is guilty of a crime, or that sufficient evidence exists to justify indictment ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-19.
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[US Politics] Mueller report to state explicitly that Donald Trump is guilty of a crime, or that sufficient evidence exists to justify indictment ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-19.
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I will not have eaten any meat intentionally for the next 30 years, starting now ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by arpanagarawal on 2016-02-21; known on 2046-02-21; judged wrong by Sahil on 2019-04-25.
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Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.
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[Estonian governing coalition] to include Social Democrats (SDE) ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-24.
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[Estonian governing coalition] to include Pro Patria (Isamaa) ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-24.
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[Estonian governing coalition] to include Conservatives (EKRE) ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-24.
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[Politics] Centre Party (Keskerakond) to remain in government after the 2019 Estonian elections. ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-03-04; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-24.
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[Personal] I will be able to 100 consecutive push-ups six weeks from now ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-14; known on 2019-04-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-24.
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Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.
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A CRISPR-edited human baby will be born by 2018 ( 34% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-02-07; known on 2019-06-01; judged right by Pablo on 2019-04-22.
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“better than 50/50 chance Kepler-186f has technological life” —Hontas Farmer ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2014-04-21; known on 2019-04-21; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-04-22.
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“Game of Thrones” S8E1 to officially air in 2019 H1 ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-22.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-04-13). ( 6% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-14; known on 2019-04-20; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-22.
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A redacted version of the Mueller report is released before the end of April ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-19.
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A redacted form of the Mueller report is released by Friday ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-15; known on 2019-04-20; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-19.
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[Politics] Robert Mueller's final report on Trump-Russia investigation to be made public by end of July 2019, assuming Mueller has submitted it to attorney general ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-04-19.