Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Alexander Acosta (Rene Alexander Acosta) will not be the United States Secretary of Labor before the end of 2019 ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-02-23; known on 2020-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2019-07-12.
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Charlottesville car driver shown to be taking money from Soros ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-11.
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Charlottesville car driver supports Trump ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged right by two2thehead on 2019-07-10.
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[Commodities] As of July 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of June 2019 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-07-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] end of production cuts ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-07-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration but reducing scale (i.e., cutting less than 1.2 MMbpd) ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-07-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration and deepening of cuts (i.e., cutting more than 1.2 MMbpd) ( 27% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-07-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Commodities: At next meeting, OPEC+ to announce] extension of duration of present cuts but no change in scale from 1.2 MMbpd ( 23% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-18; known on 2019-07-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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Libyan crude oil production to average above 1 MMbpd for 2019 Q2 ( 56% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-12; known on 2019-07-15; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Apr-May-Jun 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-07-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Apr-May-Jun 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-07-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Apr-May-Jun 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 75% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-07-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-10.
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Indonesia will devolve into a full-fledged islamic theocracy or decay into civil war-torn provinces largely dominated by Sharia law till the end of Ramadan 2019. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Neonblitz on 2017-05-23; known on 2019-06-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-07-09.
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[US Politics] At least one Democratic candidate who participates in the first (June) debate to end/suspend campaign before the second (July) debate ( 72% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of June 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] May 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-07-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of June 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] June 2018 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-07-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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Soyuz MS-13 to launch as scheduled on July 6, 2019 ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-07-06; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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[Fighting] UFC 239 to be held as scheduled on July 6, 2019 ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-07-06; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Conservative Party. ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-09.
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Youtube channel Tech Ingredients will reach 200,000 subscribers (Currently 14k) within 2 years ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by bendini on 2018-03-28; known on 2020-03-28; judged right by bendini on 2019-07-07.
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iPen and iPaper from Apple in 5 years ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-13; known on 2019-08-13; judged right by Antbak on 2019-07-06.
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Luna (dating on blockchain) will have more than 200 000 users (created accounts) by the end of 2018 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_grint on 2018-01-31; known on 2019-07-02; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-07-06.
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[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 30 June 2019 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 135 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 150 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 165 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 180 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 195 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year so far:] 200 ( 5% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 200 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 210 ( 75% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 220 ( 70% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 230 ( 65% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 240 ( 60% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 250 ( 55% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 260 ( 50% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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[My total days exercised this year:] 262 ( 5% confidence )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-05.
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We would predict the complexity of stories using probabilities and stuff… ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by DiseuseDeBonneAventure on 2014-11-21; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by DiseuseDeBonneAventure on 2019-07-04.
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Politics, UK – There is a new prime minister of the United Kingdom before 1 July 2019, and they're from the Labour Party. ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-07-03.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for May 2019 to exceed 50% ( 6% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-07-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] under $40 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 29% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 30% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during June 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-07-07; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-02.
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The African Continental Free Trade Agreement has 22 ratifications or more. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.