Tech, AI – OpenAI publishes GPT-2 model weights before 2019-04-01 ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-01.

Felix Sater gives a new explanation for his email remarks linking the engineering of Trump's election victory to a Putin-team buy-in. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-01.

[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 Q1 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 Q1 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 5% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

US & China to announce end to trade war in Q1 2019. ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[Politics] Either Juan Guaidó or Nicolás Maduro to flee Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[Estonian governing coalition] to be formed by end of March 2019 ( 50% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

All charges against Meng Wanzhou to be dropped in Q1 2019. ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] greater than $70/barrel ( 14% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] less than $50/barrel ( 12% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[The average spot price of Brent crude oil in March 2019 will be] between $50 and $60/barrel ( 18% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[Politics] Nicolás Maduro to resign as president of Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q1 EOQ ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

Donald Trump and Xi Jinping to meet in March 2019 ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

[Politics] Nicolás Maduro to resign as president of Venezuela in 2019 Q1. ( 9% confidence; 15 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-04-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-04-01.

Politics, UK – Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings before the 30th of March 2019. ( 20% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.

Politics, UK – Before 30 March 2019, the UK revokes Article 50. ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-30.

The UK to leave the EU without a deal on 29 March ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-03-30; judged wrong by 6thNapoleon on 2019-03-30.

I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-22). ( 7% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-03-29; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-29.

Felix Sater testifies publicly before the House Intelligence Committee on March 27th 2019 ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-03-28; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-27.

Emergent Ventures will provide a grant to Kernel (my project) ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by bendini on 2018-11-22; known on 2019-02-19; judged wrong by bendini on 2019-03-26.

[Fighting] Borys Mańkowski to beat Norman Parke at KSW 47 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-03-24; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-23.

I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-15). ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-15; known on 2019-03-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-22.

Another Soyuz Fregat stage suffers some form of failure that leads to the loss or incorrect insertion of one or more satellites in the next two years. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-22; known on 2019-03-22; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-22.

Etherium will be more valuable than Bitcoin. ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by s.zirai@live.de on 2018-03-20; known on 2019-03-20; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-03-21.

[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-03-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-21.

[US FOMC March rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-03-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-21.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Mewtwo ( 50% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Marth ( 20% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Rob ( 65% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Diddy Kong ( 15% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Fox ( 10% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Donkey Kong ( 58% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Captain Falcon ( 40% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.