Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[US economy: Civilian unemployment rate as of July 2019 to be LOWER than the rate as of] June 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-14; known on 2019-08-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] higher than $100 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $90 and $99.99 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $80 and $89.99 ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 27% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $60 and $69.99 ( 28% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] between $40 and $49.99 ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Average Brent crude spot price during July 2019 to be] under $40 ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-08-08; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through July EOM ( 89% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-08; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-08.
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[Commodities] As of August 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of July 2019 ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-08-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-07.
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Politics, US – In Madison v. Alabama, the Supreme Court rules that the State of Alabama may not execute Vernon Madison. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-08-05.
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Politics, UK – Fitch, Moody's, or S&P next downgrade the United Kingdom's long-term local or foreign currency issuer ratings on or before the 31st of July 2019. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-08-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-08-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-08-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-05.
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[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for May-Jun-Jul 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-08-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-05.
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[US Economy] “Recession probability” indicator for June 2019 to exceed 50% ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-03; known on 2019-08-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-05.
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Before 1 August 2019, Facebook announces that Mark Zuckerberg will cease to be the company's sole Chairman or CEO. Leave of a absence counts. ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-05.
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Microsoft is gonna change its OS's name from Windows to something else within 5 years because people hate Windows. ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by spacemammoth on 2014-08-02; known on 2019-08-02; judged wrong by IlliaHalaituk on 2019-08-03.
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TSLA Q2 2019 net income will be $150M or less. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by jacobgreenleaf on 2019-08-03.
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Destin Sandlin (host of Smarter Every Day) hired by NASA ( 10% confidence )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-02-22; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2019-08-01.
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Next MacBook Pro release excludes 3.5mm headphone jack or becomes incorporated in a different IO port. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-25; known on 2016-06-16; judged wrong by jesselevine on 2019-08-01.
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[US Politics] Democratic candidates participating in the July debate to outnumber those participating in the June debate ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-12; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in July 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate ( 87% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[Politics] 10 or more candidates to qualify for second Democratic primary debate ( 79% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in July for which data are published ( 62% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[Personal] I will get a dog before July EOM ( 4% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 54% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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[US FOMC July rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-08-01.
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USD cash outperforms SPY during 01/15/19 to 07/15/19 ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by objclone on 2019-01-16; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-07-27.
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The Alison discourse on rattumb will continue for at least a week ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by enolan on 2019-07-20; known on 2019-07-27; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-07-27.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 3 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-26.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 2 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 20% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-26.
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[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the top contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 11% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-26.
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[Politics] Afghanistan to hold presidential elections as (re)scheduled on July 20, 2019 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-07-21; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-21.
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[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for June 2019 to exceed 110 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-07-25; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-21.
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[Politics] A Democratic candidate other than Yang to propose UBI before the second debate ( 14% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-08-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-18.
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The winner of the 2019 World Series of Poker main event to be a US citizen ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-17; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-17.
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The winner of the 2019 World Series of Poker main event to be a first-time champion ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-17; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-17.
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TPP ratified in Canada ( 83% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-17.
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The Steelers don't pick up Dupree's $9M option ( 80% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2019-07-16.
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Electric car will be charged >=90% ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-07-16; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2019-07-16.
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python-ethereum makes it into ubuntu ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-11-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-16.
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Bryan Caplan's The Case Against Education will have a Wikipedia page about it within one month of publication, and the page will not be deleted for one year after publication of the page. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-05; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-16.
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Other to rule Westeros at the end of the TV-series ( 9% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by BiasedCalibration on 2014-05-24; known on 2019-07-16; judged wrong by ejlflop on 2019-07-16.
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The first exaflop performance supercomputer will be online before July 2019. ( 46% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Arenamontanus on 2009-10-14; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-15.
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Scotland & Canada are one country on July 15th, 2019 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-20; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-07-15.
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Rafael Nadal will win Wimbledon 2019. ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by skateboard34 on 2019-07-08; known on 2019-07-15; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-07-15.
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We will launch bookshare working on iOS in the next 30 days to users ( 60% confidence )
Created by Cliffw on 2019-06-14; known on 2019-07-14; judged wrong by Cliffw on 2019-07-14.