PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

The African National Congress wins the South African presidential elections ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-09-11; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.

[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 135 ( 5% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.

[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 130 ( 50% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.

[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 125 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.

[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 115 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.

[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 105 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.

[Personal: I have exercised at least this many days this year:] 85 ( 90% confidence )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-07-01.

[Commodities] Brent > WTI for all of 2019 through June EOM ( 90% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[Internet] The majority of top 30 global websites to be either Chinese or blocked in China as of 2Q19 EOQ ( 97% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[IPO] Palantir IPO in 2019 H1 ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[IPO] Slack IPO in 2019 H1 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[IPO] Rackspace IPO in 2019 H1 ( 25% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[IPO] Airbnb IPO in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[IPO] Didi IPO in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[In 2019 H1 Twitter to ban/suspend] a sitting head of state or government ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most gold medals ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most silver medals ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most bronze medals ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[2019 European Games] Russia to win the most medals ( 90% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[2019 European Games] Estonia to win at least 1 gold medal ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[US-China] Xi and Trump to meet during June 2019 G20 meeting in Japan ( 87% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-13; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[IPO] Cloudflare IPO in 2019 H1 ( 34% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

US & China to announce end to trade war in Q2 2019 ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[Fighting] Khabib Nurmagomedov's next fight to be against Tony Ferguson, and to happen in 2019 H1 ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[Economy] An OECD member to see its credit rating downgraded by S&P, Moody's, Fitch, or DBRS in 2019 H1 ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.

Taiwan to declare independence in 2019 H1 ( 2% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

China's Belt & Road Initiative (BRI) to see at least one loan default by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[Politics] The US to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[Politics] The EU to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 4% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[Politics] Canada to enact Uighur-related sanctions on China by 2019 Q2 EOQ ( 7% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in June for which data are published ( 70% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-07-01.

[Politics] Theresa May to lose a vote of no confidence in 2019 H1 ( 32% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-01.

Alex Trebek will die before July 1st, 2019. ( 27% confidence; 12 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by skateboard34 on 2019-03-25; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by skateboard34 on 2019-07-01.

A PC standalone, F2P version of AutoChess will launch (defined as open to everyone, even if it's early access or beta) within 2019. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by bshih on 2019-02-27; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by bshih on 2019-07-01.

'Cosmetic surgery has doubled its market size' (in 2017 compared to 2010) ( 74% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2019-06-30.

There will be national or global economic data that is widely regarded (by econ bloggers and mainstream media outlets) as a bursting of the higher education bubble. ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dnti808 on 2018-06-29; known on 2019-06-29; judged wrong by dnti808 on 2019-06-30.

[Politics] Andrew Yang to appear in June 2019 Democratic candidates' primary debate ( 84% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-28.

Mammophant embryo created successfully ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by penten on 2017-02-20; known on 2019-02-20; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.

[Politics] 10 or more candidates to qualify for first Democratic primary debate ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.

Worldwide treaty banning all nuclear weapons + plan to reduce weapon stocks to 0 in place. ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-08; known on 2019-06-15; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-06-27.

I will win my bet with Huw Price that 2/3rds of a panel of three physicists will assign less than 50% credence to cold fusion or other new-physics energy production by Andrea Rossi/Industrial Heat or Robert Godes/Brillouin Energy on New Year's Eve 2018. ( 99% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by CarlShulman on 2016-02-09; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by CarlShulman on 2019-06-26.

Estonia to be elected to the UN Security Council for the 2020-2021 period. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-09-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-25.

[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 4 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-25.

[2019 European Games] Estonia to win at least one medal in fencing ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-25.

[2019 European Games] Host country Belarus to win at least 1 gold medal ( 93% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-25.

Mueller does not indict Trump. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by TracyPoff on 2020-09-02.

[US economy] Conference Board “Leading Economic Index” for May 2019 to exceed 110 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-30; known on 2019-06-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-24.

Facebook will report more than 1.5 billion DAUs for December 2018, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2019-02-07; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2019-06-23.

Facebook will report more than 1.6 billion DAUs for December 2018, compared to 1.23 billion for December 2016 at https://investor.fb.com/investor-news/press-release-details/2017/Facebook-Reports-Fourth-Quarter-and-Full-Year-2016-Results/default.aspx ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-02-20; known on 2019-02-07; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2019-06-23.

By the end of 2018, the all-time peak value for “Percentage of pages loaded over HTTPS in Chrome by platform” on Windows will exceed 75%. ( 74% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-24; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2019-06-23.

Statistics

Judged Predictions