PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Gold hit above $1400/oz at least once in 2019 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by objclone on 2019-06-20; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by objclone on 2019-06-23.

“Narendra Modi will continue as Indian prime minister after the 2019 elections” ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-06-20.

BJP will win no greater than 220 seats in 2019 general elections. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by roshni on 2014-10-26; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-06-20.

[US FOMC June rate decision to be:] raise rate ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-20.

[US FOMC June rate decision to be:] reduce rate ( 14% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-20.

[US FOMC June rate decision to be:] leave rate unchanged ( 78% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-06-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-20.

I won't deal with main project for over 2 hours tomorrow ( 90% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-13; known on 2019-06-14; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-06-20.

Fed not cut rate at June FOMC meeting ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by objclone on 2019-06-18; known on 2019-06-19; judged right by objclone on 2019-06-20.

Mueller does not indict Trump. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by TracyPoff on 2020-09-02.

Five years from today, at least one team in the 2014 YEI fellowship will be worth $100 million or more. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-06-12; known on 2019-06-12; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2019-06-14.

HBO's Game of Thrones is not cancelled before covering all ASoIaF books (including upcoming ones). ( 51% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by muflax on 2011-12-31; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by davatk on 2019-06-13.

Connor Leahy will publicly released his GPT-2-1.5b model by the end of July 2019. ( 62% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2019-06-06; known on 2019-08-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2019-06-13.

[Commodities] The next edition of BP's “Statistical Review of World Energy” to report a HIGHER global R/P ratio for oil than the present 50.2 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-11-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-13.

[IPO] Crowdstrike IPO in 2019 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-13.

[IPO] Crowdstrike IPO in 2019 H1 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-13.

[Commodities] As of June 2019, EIA's forecast for 2020 average daily US crude oil production to be higher than its forecast as of May 2019 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-10; known on 2019-06-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-12.

[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] Venezuela to produce at least 1.2 MMbpd ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-06-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-12.

[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] Nigeria to produce at least 1.5 MMbpd ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-06-16; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-12.

[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] UK to produce at least 1.3 MMbpd ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-06-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-12.

[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] OPEC to produce at least 31 MMbpd ( 39% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-06-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-12.

[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] OECD inventory to exceed 2900 MMb ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-06-16; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-12.

[Commodities: Crude oil in May 2019] Iran to produce at least 2.6 MMbpd ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2019-06-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-06-12.

HP MoR: Harry will, at some point in the story or an epilogue, literally tear apart stars (for star lifting purposes perhaps), and this is what the “tear apart the very stars in heaven” phrase in the prophecy was referring to. ( 62% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-07-28; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-01-31.

[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the summary by June 1st ( 10% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-05-02; known on 2019-06-02; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-06-10.

[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the table by June 1st ( 50% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-05-02; known on 2019-06-02; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-06-10.

[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] the intro by June 1st ( 60% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-05-02; known on 2019-06-02; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-06-10.

[[REDACTED PROJECT] will publish] next steps by June 1st ( 5% confidence )

Created by marcus_a_davis on 2019-05-02; known on 2019-06-02; judged wrong by marcus_a_davis on 2019-06-10.

Apple will launch an ~4 inch iphone in the next 18 months, that has the same full screen display of the newer models and 5-7nm CPUs ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2019-01-09; known on 2020-06-10; judged right by lettergram on 2020-04-15.

Apple will launch an ~4 inch iphone in the next 18 months, that has the same full screen display of the newer models and 5-7nm CPUs ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2019-01-09; known on 2020-06-10; judged right by lettergram on 2020-04-15.

Politics, US – In Timbs v. Indiana, the Supreme Court rules that the Excessive Fines Clause of the Eighth Amendment applies to states. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2019-05-30; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-06-09.

Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) in the next 12 months. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-05-30; known on 2019-05-30; judged wrong by stepan on 2019-06-08.

[Fighting] UFC 238 to be held as scheduled on June 8, 2019 ( 98% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-06-08; judged right by stepan on 2019-06-08.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $70 and $79.99 ( 35% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-20; known on 2019-06-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-06-07.

[Average Brent crude spot price during May 2019 to be] between $50 and $59.99 ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers )