PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Jaime Lannister ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Varys ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Tyrion Lannister ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Samwell Tarly ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Bran Stark ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Gilly ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Arya Stark ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Sansa Stark ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Tormund Giantsbane ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Night King ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Daenerys Targaryen ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Cersei Lannister ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-21.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Jon Snow ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.

[Among “Game of Thrones” characters still alive as of the end of the show—including zombies—is] Brienne of Tarth ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-10; known on 2019-05-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-21.

[Game of Thrones] Daenerys Targaryen to kill Jon Snow ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-06; known on 2019-05-21; judged wrong by AlexLamson on 2019-05-20.

[Game of Thrones] Jon Snow to kill Daenerys Targaryen ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-06; known on 2019-05-21; judged right by AlexLamson on 2019-05-20.

GoT: gurba terlwbl xvyyf xvat bs gur veba vfynaqf ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-20.

Public demonstration of an AI that can learn the rules of, and play at a superhuman level, most board/card games without supervision, just watching many games and being told who won, in 2018. ( 64% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by HonoreDB on 2017-12-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2019-05-20.

[US Politics] Mueller report to state explicitly that Donald Trump is guilty of a crime, or that sufficient evidence exists to justify indictment ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-21; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-19.

Austria to call an early election ( 80% confidence )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-18; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by amadeu on 2019-05-18.

Austria's vice chancellor to resign by June 30 ( 90% confidence )

Created by amadeu on 2019-05-18; known on 2019-06-30; judged right by amadeu on 2019-05-18.

[IPO] Pinterest IPO in 2019 ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-17.

[IPO] Pinterest IPO in 2019 H1 ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-17.

MtG: There will be at least one reference to homosexuality per block in the next four blocks. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Roxolan on 2013-09-28; known on 2019-05-16; judged wrong by Roxolan on 2019-05-16.

[US politics: As of 2019-07-25] Andrew Yang will have been listed by PredictIt as the number 5 contender for the Democratic Party nomination for at least one day ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-26; known on 2019-07-26; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-16.

Uber IPO valuation bigger than Lyft's, conditional on 2019 IPOs ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-13.

[Fighting] Douglas Lima to beat Michael Page at Bellator 221 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2019-05-11; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-12.

[Fighting] Jose Aldo to beat Alex Volkanovski at UFC 237 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-05-05; known on 2019-05-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-12.

[Fighting] Namajunas and Andrade to fight at UFC 237 as scheduled ( 80% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-12; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-12.

[Fighting] Namajunas vs. Andrade to be the main event at UFC 237, conditional on their bout not being canceled/postponed ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2019-05-12; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-12.

[Fighting] Rose Namajunas to beat Jessica Andrade at UFC 237 ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-05-12; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-12.

I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-05-04). ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-04-29; known on 2019-05-11; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-12.

I will complete my Work Marathon 5 baseline targets without decreasing the scope. ( 60% confidence )

Created by olimay on 2019-05-09; known on 2019-05-12; judged wrong by olimay on 2019-05-12.

House Judiciary Committee votes to hold William Barr in contempt of congress ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-08; known on 2019-05-09; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-08.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Feb-Mar-Apr 2019 to be] -0.5 or lower, indicating La Niña conditions ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-05-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-08.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Feb-Mar-Apr 2019 to be] between -0.5 and 0.5, indicating neutral conditions ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-05-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-08.

[Climate: Oceanic Niño Index for Feb-Mar-Apr 2019 to be] 0.5 or higher, indicating El Niño conditions ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-22; known on 2019-05-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-08.

The winner of the 2019 World Snooker Championship to be British ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-05-07; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-07.

Twitter will archive content of web links and tweets before 2018 ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-09-21; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-05-06.

[In 2019 H1 Twitter to ban/suspend] an official government account ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-19; known on 2019-07-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.

Post done by end of the evening ( 55% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-05-05.

[Fighting] Al Iaquinta to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.

[Fighting] Al Iaquinta to be UFC champion in at least one weight class as of 2019 EOY ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-17; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2020-01-02.

[Politics] At least one of the eight current main candidates for 2020 Democratic presidential nominee to withdraw within the next three months ( 34% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.

[Interest rates] US yield curve to be inverted (at any maturity) as of the last day in April for which data are published ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 9] Matt Sayles to beat Kyle Nelson ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-22; known on 2019-05-05; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 9] Arjan Bhullar to beat Juan Adams ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-04-22; known on 2019-05-05; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.

[Commodities] US inventories of propane/propylene to be HIGHER at end of April than at end of March 2019 ( 82% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-05-05.

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] September 18 FOMC meeting ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.

[Interest rates: After the US central bank's May 1 rate decision, the market probability of a funds rate INCREASE to be higher than that of a rate DECREASE at the] June 19 FOMC meeting ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-05-02; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-05-05.

Statistics

Judged Predictions