PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Inkling ( 50% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Sheik ( 15% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Link ( 45% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Samus ( 55% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Falco ( 55% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Ike ( 65% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] King Dedede ( 75% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Kirby ( 75% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Zelda ( 80% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Jigglypuff ( 72% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
[As of the date considered, the following character will have been generally judged low tiered (bottom half) in Smash for Switch.] Ganondorf ( 69% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-03-18.
No new states adopt the National Popular Vote Interstate Compact ( 56% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-12; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-03-18.
The Yellow Jackets are still active and present in media in March ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Osuniev on 2019-01-27; known on 2019-03-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-17.
The web page had different behavior before a recent code change. ( 75% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-16; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-16.
Blackout in Venezuela continues through Monday, 3/18/2019 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-13; known on 2019-03-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-16.
Blackout in Venezuela continues through Friday ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-12; known on 2019-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-16.
I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-08). ( 8% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-09; known on 2019-03-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-15.
NASA ISS Expedition 59 to successfully launch on March 14, 2019 ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-28; known on 2019-03-15; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-14.
Blackout in Venezuela continues through Wednesday ( 66% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-10; known on 2019-03-14; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-03-14.
R+L=J ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-03-13; known on 2019-03-13; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-03-13.
Blackout in Venezuela continues through Monday ( 79% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-10; known on 2019-03-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-12.
[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] “Market” to perform best ( 60% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-12.
[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] “Reach” to perform best ( 20% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-12.
[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] “Laplace” to perform best ( 20% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-12.
[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] None of the models to outperform chance ( 20% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-12.
[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] Exactly one of the models to outperform chance ( 40% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-12.
[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] Exactly two of the models to outperform chance ( 20% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-12.
[UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. dos Santos] All three of the models to outperform chance ( 20% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-12.
[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Tim Means to beat Niko Price ( 75% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-10.
[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] EZdS to beat Curtis Millender ( 75% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-10.
[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Alex White to beat Dan Moret ( 75% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-10.
[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Sergio Moraes to beat Anthony Martin ( 70% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-10.
[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 4] Matt Schnell to beat Louis Smolka ( 70% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-06; known on 2019-03-10; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-10.
I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-03-01). ( 10% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-01; known on 2019-03-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-09.
The Hyatt cyberattacks will not be definitively traced to nation-state actors before January 1st, 2017. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-08.
Bank nonperforming loans will exceed 2.5% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-09-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-08.
I will purchase an Oculus Rift by March 30, 2016 ( 21% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-08.
Reality Winner gets the death penalty ( 13% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-24; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-08.
By January 2020, there will be a commercial house cleaning robots (like a Roomba) that can take voice commands to go to specific parts of the house and clean those. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-02-13; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-08.
Theranos still exists as an independent company in 2025 (it's allowed to rename). ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ChristianKl on 2015-12-16; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-08.
The combination of VMware and Dell will proceed (in spite of the October shareholder vote) with Dell paying no more than $22 billion in cash and stock to buy back the tracking stock securities that correspond with Dell's interest in VMware. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by prophetofprofit on 2018-08-29; known on 2019-06-30; judged wrong by prophetofprofit on 2019-03-07.
Tempur Sealy International Inc stock will fall 15% below the current price of 55.39 in the next six months and remain (at least) below 5% of the current price at the end of the six months ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by prophetofprofit on 2018-09-01; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by prophetofprofit on 2019-03-07.
Firefox mobile OS: > 5% mobile market share in five years ( 10% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lavalamp on 2014-02-25; known on 2019-02-24; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-03-07.
Open Phil's ratio of grants between global catastrophic risks and (human-focused) US policy will be higher in 2018 than in 2016. ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-07; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2019-03-05.
Politics, US – Before 1 March 2019, the U.S. imposes Global Magnitsky Sanctions on any member of Saudi Arabia's Council of Ministers for the death of journalist Jamal Khashoggi, ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-05.
Personal – I suffer malaria symptoms before the end of the clinical trial. ( 40% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-13; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-03-05.
Science – Conditional on being given an answer, I'm told that a majority of participants in the VAC066 trial did not develop malaria at the end of the monitoring period. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-03-05.
The Steelers don't continue with Antonio Brown ( 70% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.
Keith Butler gets fired ( 50% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.
Keith Butler gets fired ( 50% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.