Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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ARCA Space will fail to reach its goal of a flight in 2018. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-02; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-22.
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Politics, UK – Current Labour MP resigns the whip before 2019-04-01 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-02-17; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-02-19.
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L will be working as an irl sexworker three months from now ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Somni on 2018-11-16; known on 2019-02-16; judged wrong by Somni on 2019-02-19.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] “Market” to perform best ( 50% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] “Laplace” to perform best ( 30% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] “Reach” to perform best ( 20% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] Exactly two of the three models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] None of the three models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] All three models to outperform chance ( 20% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting: UFC on ESPN 1] Exactly one of the three models to outperform chance ( 30% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-12; known on 2019-02-18; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Fighting] Cain Velasquez to beat Francis Ngannou at UFC on ESPN 1 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-02-18; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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[Books] I will finish Vogel's biography of DXP by February EOM. ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-18.
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Politics, US – U.S. Customs and Border Protection reports >=8000 “Southwest Family Unit Subject and Unaccompanied Alien Children Apprehensions” for the El Centro and San Diego sectors in January 2019. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-22; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
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Econ – The percent change in the U.S. Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) for the 12 months ending in December 2018 is between 2.3% and 2.5% inclusive. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2019-01-31; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
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Econ – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.7 or higher. ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
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Econ – The Bureau of Labor Statistics reports the U.S. civilian unemployment rate (U3) for the month of December 2018 to be 3.6 or lower. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-02-17.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-08). ( 18% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-09; known on 2019-02-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-16.
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[Commodities] US crude oil production in 2019-01 to exceed production in 2018-12 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-16; known on 2019-02-14; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-13.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by bklorimer on 2019-02-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-13.
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Trump will not be impeached ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by bklorimer on 2019-02-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-13.
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I will read one book per month until the end of 2019 (regardless of book length). ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by avi on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by avi on 2019-02-13.
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AR gives us the okay for publishing our project on CC-PA ( 80% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2019-01-24; known on 2019-02-08; judged right by peter_hurford on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 10 books ( 15% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 4 books ( 68% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 12 books ( 5% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 13 books ( 3% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 7 books ( 45% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 6 books ( 50% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 11 books ( 10% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 2 books ( 93% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 5 books ( 55% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 3 books ( 83% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 8 books ( 35% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 14 books ( 1% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 1 book ( 97% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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[Holiday reading challenge: By 2019-02-10 EOD I will have finished at least] 9 books ( 25% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-02-01; known on 2019-02-11; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-11.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-02-01). ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-02; known on 2019-02-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-09.
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Politics, US – Trump declares a state of emergency prior to the 1st of February 2019. ( 6% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-07; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-02-08.
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The Hometrack London house price index will be lower by the end of 2018 than today ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by elephantower on 2016-07-22; known on 2018-12-16; judged wrong by elephantower on 2019-02-05.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-25). ( 15% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-25; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-02.
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The RWBY Wiki entry for Cinder Fall lists her as “Deceased” at the conclusion of Volume 6. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-14; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-01.
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The market capitalization of Ethereum (ETH) will overtake the market capitalization of Bitcoin (BTC) before the end of January 2019. ( 20% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Anidrania on 2018-02-26; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-02-01.
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Tesla's stock will be above $310 per share as of February 1st, 2019. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2018-08-01; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2019-02-01.
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Brent crude to be above $60/barrel by end of January ( 61% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-01.
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I will finish “Stories of the Sahara” in January. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-01.
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[Books] I will finish reading “Restless Empire” by January EOM. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-01.
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23 or more US senators will be women by the end of January 2019 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-30; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
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Australia will have an election before the end of January ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-25; known on 2019-01-31; judged wrong by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
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[Commodities] US crude oil inventories to be lower as of 2019-01-25 relative to 2019-01-18 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-30; judged wrong by tony77 on 2019-01-31.
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Presidente interino MT será conduzido à condição de Presidente da República e exercerá seu mandato até o final. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2016-05-18; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-30.