Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[I (Bruno Parga) have been a major contributor to at least this many new features on Predictionbook] 1 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-11.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-04). ( 15% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-01-11; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-11.
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A close friend or relative will commit suicide within the next 2 years ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Ham Nox on 2014-06-27; known on 2016-06-27; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2019-01-08.
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1k PPI VR display of at least 3.5"/eye size will be in a consumer VR headset in 2018 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known on 2018-12-30; judged wrong by icrbow on 2019-01-07.
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“Environmentalism is embraced by the conservative Christian right.” ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-06-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-07.
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Dodd-Frank fully or almost fully repealed by US midterm elections. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2017-01-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2019-01-05.
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I have a conversation with a colleague in Chinese in 2018 ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Temeraire on 2018-01-14; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Temeraire on 2019-01-05.
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No major health-care reform legislation gets passed. ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2019-01-05.
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No large-scale deportation of Dreamers. ( 92% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Temeraire on 2019-01-05.
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The GOP will hold 49 or fewer Senate seats after 2018 midterms. ( 46% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05.
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Technology – New iPhone model released with lowest option priced over $800 in the US before the end of 2018 ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-27.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2018-12-28). ( 33% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2018-12-28; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-04.
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Personal, Accounts – My Money Dashboard totals are below -£1000 at the start of 2019-01-04. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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EA – GiveWell publishes at least two reports on interventions to influence policy by end of 2018 ( 65% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Technology – A fake picture, video, or audio sample of a famous person doing/saying “something awful” causes a scandal reported by the BBC in 2018 ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, Columbia – FARC peace deal remains in place on January 1, 2019 ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Technology – Tesla will deliver at least 180,000 Model 3's to customers in 2018 ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, Middle East – There is a lethal confrontation between the national military forces of Iran and the United States before 1 January 2019 ( 8% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Politics, US – Before 1 January 2019, either house of Congress passes a bill that would limit the president's authority to impose tariffs. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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Tech – Bloomberg substantially retracts their story alleging Chinese infiltration of Apple and Amazon via compromised hardware before the end of November 2018. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-10-20; known on 2018-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-04.
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EA – GiveWell's end of year donation recommendations for 2018 once again recommend a majority of direct donations go to Against Malaria Foundation ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-03.
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EA – Machine Intelligence Research Institute raises more in a 2018 fundraiser than in its 2017 fundraiser ( 55% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by pranomostro on 2019-01-03.
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My biomanufacturing partner will have a job within a month ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by absurdseagull on 2018-12-01; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by absurdseagull on 2019-01-02.
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Bashar al-Assad ceases to be president of Syria before 1 January 2019 ( 13% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, US – Before 2019, the President, Vice President, White House Press Secretary, White House Chief of Staff, or Attorney General names a suspected author of the New York Times “Resistance” op-ed. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-28; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Econ – The yield curve for 2-year and 10-year U.S. Treasuries inverts before 2019, as defined as the former having a higher figure in the Daily Treasury Yield Curve Rate on any one day prior to then. ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, Middle East – Iran withdraws from the deal limiting its nuclear program before the end of 2018. ( 16% confidence; 8 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Cyber attack on UK with Russia clearly identified as culprit in 2018, described as retaliation for Syria bombing. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-04-16; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, Libya – Libya still has two rival governments on January 1, 2019 ( 78% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Rationalist Community – LessWrong.com has at least 20 front page posts approved during December 2018 ( 77% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Rationalist Community – Slate Star Codex gets mentioned in the New York Times (by someone other than Ross Douthat) between 1st of July and end of 2018 ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Technology – Ethereum market cap is below Bitcoin market cap at end of 2018 ( 85% confidence; 12 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Politics, UK – Before the end of 2018, UK government representative states that the view of the government is that the Russian government is likely not responsible for the attempted murder of Sergei Skripal ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Personal – I buy an ebike conversion kit (defined as one or more parts with the intent of fitting them to my bike to convert it into an ebike) before the end of 2018 ( 85% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-09-07; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Personal, Productivity – I have a model that appears to adequately identify potential spam user signups suitable for some choice of action before 2019-01-01. ( 55% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-22; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Personal, Productivity – I do French practice every day between 2018-12-10 and 2018-12-16 inclusive ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-09; known on 2018-12-17; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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Ripple (XRP) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Personal – I buy a coat before the 1st of January 2019. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-12-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-02.
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By the end of 2018, the all-time peak value for “Total IPv6 adoption” in https://www.google.com/intl/en/ipv6/statistics.html will exceed 25%. ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-24; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2019-01-02.
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By the end of 2018, the all-time peak value for “Percentage of pages loaded over HTTPS in Chrome by platform” on Mac will exceed 85%. ( 71% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-24; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2019-01-02.
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Ripple (XRP) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-02.
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Stellar (XLM) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 15% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-01-02.
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NEO is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-01-02.
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Cardano (ADA) is purchasable on Coinbase (GDAX) by the end of 2018 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-02-05; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-01-02.
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The US Republican Party ends the legislative filibuster in the Senate by the end of 2018 ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2019-01-02.
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PredictIt shows Bernie Sanders having highest chance to be Dem nominee at end of 2018. ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-02; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-02.
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LP identifies as vegetarian by end of 2018 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by penten on 2019-01-02.
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I will have visited every city in this province by 2018 EOY. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-02.
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Donald Trump will explicitly express support for Taiwanese independence this year. ( 6% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2018-07-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-02.