PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Mike Tomlin doesn't get fired ( 70% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.

Randy Fitchner doesn't get fired ( 95% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-05; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2019-03-05.

[Politics] Eesti 200 to win at least one seat in the Estonian election. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-11; known on 2019-03-04; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.

[Fighting] Jon Jones to test positive for prohibited substances before UFC 235 ( 2% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-18; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Cato on 2020-01-03.

[Fighting: UFC 235] Exactly one of the models to outperform chance ( 35% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.

[Fighting: UFC 235] Exactly two of the models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.

[Fighting: UFC 235] None of the models to outperform chance ( 25% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.

[Fighting: UFC 235] “Reach” to perform best ( 18% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.

[Fighting: UFC 235] “Laplace” to perform best ( 28% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-04.

[Fighting: UFC 235] “Market” to perform best ( 55% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.

[Fighting] Diaz and Masvidal to fight at UFC 235. ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-04.

[Fighting: UFC 235] All three models to outperform chance ( 15% confidence )

Created by Cato on 2019-02-19; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Cato on 2019-03-04.

Tumblr will revert the decision to ban pornography (to take effect in Dec 17) in the next 3 months. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jazzsolo on 2018-12-03; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by jazzsolo on 2019-03-04.

[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Tyron Woodley to beat Kamaru Usman ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-03-03; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-03.

[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Ben Askren to beat Robbie Lawler ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-03.

[[Fighting] At UFC 235, ] Jon Jones to beat Anthony Smith ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-03-03; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-03-03.

I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X>=4 ( 5% confidence )

Created by dmwit on 2019-02-11; known on 2019-03-11; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-03-02.

I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=3 ( 5% confidence )

Created by dmwit on 2019-02-11; known on 2019-03-11; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-03-02.

I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=2 ( 30% confidence )

Created by dmwit on 2019-02-11; known on 2019-03-11; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-03-02.

I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=1 ( 45% confidence )

Created by dmwit on 2019-02-11; known on 2019-03-11; judged right by dmwit on 2019-03-02.

Britain will have a second referendum on “Brexit.” ( 18% confidence; 19 wagers )

Created by balfours_ghost on 2018-12-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-04-24.

I will get 56 hours of sleep this week (starting the night of 2019-02-22). ( 8% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-23; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-01.

NASA ISS Expedition 59 to successfully launch on February 28 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-11; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-03-01.

The Democratic Party will control the House after 2018 midterms. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2019-03-01.

[Politics] Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump to meet by February EOM ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-28.

[Politics] Kim Jong Un and Donald Trump's next meeting, should it occur before February EOM, to take place in Vietnam ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-02-28.

I will leave the country at least once before March 1. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-03-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-28.

WTI forward curve to be upsloped for all of 1Q19. ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-01-04; known on 2019-04-05; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-02-28.

[SSBU] Salem dropped by team liquid in 2019 ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ambisinister on 2019-02-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by fairfax on 2019-02-27.

Nintendo announces Melee HD for Switch before end of 2018. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2019-01-11; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-02-27.

Fewer than 63 'ThinSats' from Twiggs Space Lab will be launched on the Autumn Antares in 2018. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-26; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-27.

There will be a story mode in Smash for Switch. ( 45% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-27.

Smash for Switch will support 8-player smash. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2019-02-27.

I will discover X ideas in chapters 7-23 of the Haskell School of Music that are new to me and provoke (previously unplanned) changes to github.com/dmwit/twitch-music; X=0 ( 15% confidence )

Created by dmwit on 2019-02-11; known on 2019-03-11; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-02-26.

Within one month, MD will have concluded that JQ worked out ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford on 2019-01-25; known on 2019-02-25; judged right by peter_hurford on 2019-04-09.

3D XPoint will be released by January 1, 2017 ( 89% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-01-02; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-25.

Bank nonperforming loans will exceed 2% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 38 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-09-23; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-25.

Trump will not be impeached ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by bklorimer on 2019-02-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2020-08-13.

[Fighting: UFC on ESPN+ 3: Blachowicz vs. Santos] All three models to outperform chance ( 15% confidence )