Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[Personal] I will get out of this city this weekend ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-28; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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[Personal] I will leave the country this weekend. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-28; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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[Commodities] US crude oil inventories to be lower as of 2019-01-18 relative to 2019-01-11 ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-22; known on 2019-01-25; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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[Fighting] Bader to beat Emelianenko at Bellator 214. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-01-27; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-28.
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Technology – New iPhone model released with lowest option priced over $800 in the US before the end of 2018 ( 68% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2019-01-27.
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Within five years, Pope Francis (or a successor) makes a comment in an official or unofficial capacity that there is no literal hell. ( 11% confidence; 21 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by adbge on 2014-01-07; known on 2019-01-07; judged right by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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Number of countries bombed by the US in 2017 is > 7 ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Osuniev on 2019-01-27.
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Tom Brady is under 40. ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-26; known on 2019-01-26; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-26.
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The US government shutdown will end before April 1, 2019. ( 93% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-04-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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The US government shutdown will end before March 1, 2019. ( 78% confidence; 13 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-03-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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The US government shutdown will end before February 1, 2019. ( 66% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-05; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by amadeu on 2019-01-25.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-18). ( 10% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-18; known on 2019-01-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-25.
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My donation will arrive in time for me to be included in the CEA donor lottery ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by enolan on 2019-01-20; known on 2019-01-24; judged right by enolan on 2019-01-23.
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Personal, Accounts – My Money Dashboard totals are below -£2000 at the start of 2019-01-04. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2018-11-20; known on 2019-01-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-23.
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UK – Drone sighting over Heathrow on 2019-01-08 fails to be substantiated (reinforced by other evidence and authorities describe as credible) before or on 2019-01-15. ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-01-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-23.
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UK – Drone sighting over Heathrow on 2019-01-08 leads to an arrest before or on 2019-01-15. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-01-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2019-01-23.
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[Personal] I will go to the gym 12x in the remaining 24 days in January. ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-08; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-23.
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I will do eight hours of productive work today. ( 20% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-01-22; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-01-22.
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I will attend go club today. ( 30% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-01-22; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-01-22.
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I will do six hours of productive work today. ( 90% confidence )
Created by dmwit on 2019-01-21; known on 2019-01-22; judged wrong by dmwit on 2019-01-22.
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My date proposal will be rejected ( 75% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2019-01-20; known on 2019-01-21; judged right by enolan on 2019-01-21.
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[Personal] I will travel to a different city this weekend. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-01-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-21.
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[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Betting Odds ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.
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[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Naïve) ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.
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[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Reach (Sophisticated) ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.
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[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] One-Sided Laplace ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.
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[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Naïve) ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-21.
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[[Fighting] UFC Fight Night 143: As measured by Brier score, the model that best predicts winners will be] Two-Sided Laplace (Sophisticated) ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-09; known on 2019-01-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-21.
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A commercial Falcon Heavy launch to take place before the end of 2018. ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-01-25; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by enolan on 2019-01-20.
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I'll go through my decision-making process and score capitol hill as the best place for me to live ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bill on 2019-01-19; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Bill on 2019-01-20.
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Hernandez to beat Cerrone at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-20.
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[Personal] I will set a bench weight PR today. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-18; known on 2019-01-19; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-20.
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Gillespie to beat Medeiros at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-01-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-20.
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VanZant to beat Ostovich at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-01-20; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-20.
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Dillashaw to beat Cejudo at UFC Fight Night 143 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-02; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-20.
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I will work for at least 8h today ( 55% confidence )
Created by KatjaGrace on 2019-01-19; known on 2019-01-19; judged right by KatjaGrace on 2019-01-19.
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[Personal] All documents to be approved and returned by tomorrow EOD ( 80% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-17; known on 2019-01-19; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-18.
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I will get 56 hours of sleep next week (starting the night of 2019-01-11). ( 15% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-11; known on 2019-01-18; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-18.
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[Personal] I will set a deadlift volume PR today. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-16; known on 2019-01-17; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-17.
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I will have a major haircut in 2018 ( 10% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-01-16.
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I will consider myself vegan at any point in 2018 ( 30% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-01-16.
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I will drop out of my PhD in 2018 ( 2% confidence )
Created by splorridge on 2018-01-09; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by splorridge on 2019-01-16.
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[Commodities] US crude oil production in 2018-12 to have exceeded production in 2018-11 ( 90% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-01-16; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-16.
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[Personal] We will successfully settle on a book to read today. ( 40% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-15; known on 2019-01-16; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-16.
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On Jan 1, 2019 my bmi will be between 19 and 21.5. (Withdrawn if I’m >3 months pregnant in 2018.) ( 87% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-03-20; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2019-01-15.
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[Fighting] At least one more change to the UFC Fight Night 143 fight card to be announced (i.e., other than Mario Bautista, Karl Roberson, and Dwight Grant replacing John Lineker, Ion Cutelaba, and Randy Brown) ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-14; known on 2019-01-21; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-15.
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“An all-new Star Wars film will be released to theatres this century.” ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2100-01-01; judged right by pranomostro on 2019-01-14.
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[Personal] I will go to the cinema before Monday. ( 70% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-01-14; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-14.
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[Personal] I will see the opera on Saturday. ( 30% confidence )
Created by Cato on 2019-01-10; known on 2019-01-13; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-14.
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Some sort of major immigration reform legislation gets passed. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2019-01-13.