PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

PredictionBook is now read-only ( read more ).

Statistics

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Judged Predictions

HK's Basic Law to be cancelled in 2018. ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Cato on 2018-06-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-02.
The climate will be ENSO-neutral in 2018 Q3, according to the US NOAA. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2018-10-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-02.
Brent to remain above WTI throughout 2018 (end-of-day settlement). ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-02.
Ethan will move out by the end of 2018 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by avi on 2018-01-27; known on 2019-01-02; judged right by avi on 2019-01-02.
If Saudi Aramco has a 2018 foreign IPO, the company's implied valuation will be less than $2 trillion. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-02.
OMX Tallinn will stay above 1000 for 2018. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Cato on 2019-01-02.
I will read 100 books in 2018. ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-02.
The US yield curve will invert in 2018, i.e., the 10y yield will fall below the 1y yield. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-01-02.
SITSA Act is signed into law. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by avi on 2018-06-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Dapple on 2019-01-02.
PredictIt shows Donald Trump having highest chance to be GOP nominee at end of year. ( 89% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Dapple on 2019-01-02.
USS Gerald R. Ford CVN 78 will spend fewer than 30 days on deployment in 2018 ( 85% confidence )

Created by Dapple on 2017-07-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Dapple on 2019-01-02.
Saudi Aramco will have an IPO at a non-Saudi bourse in 2018. ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
Cocoa will reach $3000/ton in 2018. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
EA – Evidence Action's No Lean Season remains a GiveWell top charity at end of 2018 ( 69% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
Before 1 January 2019, the US federal government bans the manufacture, importation, possession, or sale of bump stocks. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
Brent crude will reach $100 in 2018. ( 8% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
23 or more US senators will be women by the end of January 2019 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-30; known on 2019-01-31; judged right by lukefreeman on 2019-01-31.
Penn Jillette will get high for charity by the end of 2018. ( 61% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2017-06-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
The World Health Organization or the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention will declare an influenza pandemic before 2019? ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukefreeman on 2018-09-04; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by lukefreeman on 2019-01-01.
“Anthony Kennedy to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
There will have been more than 1500 CI Members at some point before 2019. ( 68% confidence )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2019-01-01.
“John Roberts to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
“Elena Kagan to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 3% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
“Samuel Alito to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 5% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
“Stephen Breyer to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
“Ruth Bader Ginsburg to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 27% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
“Sonia Sotomayor to be next US Supreme Court Justice to resign/retire from the Court” —Intrade ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-08-24; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
Mueller’s investigation gets cancelled (eg Trump fires him). ( 35% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
Trump’s approval rating lower than 50% at end of year. ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
Democrats take control of the House in midterms. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
Donald Trump remains president at end of year. ( 93% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
Trump’s approval rating lower than 40% at end of year ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
Mueller does not indict Trump. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by TracyPoff on 2020-09-02.
Democrats take control of the Senate in midterms. ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2018-02-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
Before 2019, a Republican or Democratic presidential candidate, a member of congress, or a then current governor, will talk about the rise of AI as it relates to job-loss and/or existential risk. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-23; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2019-01-01.
linux 3.2 no longer supported by kernel dev team ( 54% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-04; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
By 2019 I will have deadlifted 5 plates (495lb). ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-02; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2019-01-01.
I will still be below 68kg at the end of 2018 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by waveman on 2016-03-04; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2019-01-01.
[In 2018 I will read at least] 120 books ( 20% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2019-01-01.
[In 2018 I will read at least] 90 books ( 85% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2019-01-01.
[In 2018 I will read at least] 100 books ( 50% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2019-01-01.
[In 2018 I will read at least] 80 books ( 99% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Leo on 2019-01-01.
[In 2018 I will read at least] 110 books ( 40% confidence )

Created by Leo on 2018-08-27; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2019-01-01.
“Large Hadron Collider will destroy Earth.” ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2019-01-01.
Hillary Clinton is indicted by the end of 2018 ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford on 2018-01-15; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2019-01-01.
Politics, Middle East – Fatah and Hamas do not meaningfully reconcile in 2018 (e.g. Fatah still doesn't control Gaza by January 1, 2019) ( 91% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
Before 1 January 2019, any additional EU member state schedules a referendum on leaving the EU or the eurozone. ( 16% confidence )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-05-11; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
Taiwan will declare independence in 2018. ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Cato on 2018-05-06; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
Bitcoin will be <15k on January 1st 2019. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by davatk on 2018-04-17; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
EA – Over 4500 people have signed up to the Giving What We Can Pledge by the end of 2018 ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2018-04-26; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.