PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will be able to fix Dolphin from within Dolphin after installing it. ( 81% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2014-12-14; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2014-12-14.

The FTSE 100 will be over 9000 on January 16th 2016 ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-13; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

The FTSE 100 will be below 7000 on January 16th ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-13; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-16.

A will have asked more than 3 questions on MSE before 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by adri on 2014-12-12; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by adri on 2015-01-01.

A will get no less than 90% on Top WA3. ( 75% confidence )

Created by adri on 2014-12-12; known on 2014-12-16; judged right by adri on 2014-12-16.

A will complete the pledge of contract 12122014. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by adri on 2014-12-12; known on 2015-01-08; judged right by adri on 2015-01-07.

Sunderland will beat/draw against West Ham ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-12; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14.

Man City will beat/draw against Leicester ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-12; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14.

I'll get the Fullstack Fellowship. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-12; known on 2014-12-12; judged wrong by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-12.

At some point next year I will publicly declare myself to be a furry. ( 20% confidence )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-11; known on 2017-01-01.

gwern is between 24 and 31 years old ( 90% confidence )

Created by iajrz on 2014-12-11; known on 2014-12-12; judged right by gwern on 2014-12-11.

The FTSE 100 will be valued at over 6100 in January http://www.londonstockexchange.com/exchange/prices-and-markets/stocks/indices/summary/summary-indices.html?index=UKX ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-11; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-16.

Aleksa is my secret santa. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by azax1 on 2014-12-10; known on 2014-12-17; judged right by azax1 on 2014-12-18.

Southampton will beat/draw against Burnley ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-10; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14.

Crystal Palace will beat/draw against Stoke ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-10; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14.

I will win at least one additional Giantitp PrC contest before March 2016. ( 55% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-10; known on 2016-03-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-01.

Part or all of the removal of Lewin's videos will be reversed within 1 year. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-10; known on 2015-12-10; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-12-11.

Function will run ( 90% confidence )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-09; known on 2014-12-09; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-09.

By 2045, a superconductor which has a critical temperature of at least 225 K will be discovered. ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-09; known on 2045-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-15.

Sunderland will beat/draw against West Ham ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-09; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14.

Man City will beat/draw against Leicester ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-09; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-14.

A will go to France before March 2015. ( 50% confidence )

Created by adri on 2014-12-09; known on 2015-03-01; judged right by adri on 2015-03-04.

Corinna and I will watch the OC together prior to 14/12/14 ( 6% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-12-08; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-09.

HPMOR – Hat & Cloak is one of Dumbledore, Quirrel, Voldermort, Future Harry, Lucius Malfoy, Nicholas Flamel, Baba Yaga, Severus Snape, Sirius Black, Peter Pettigrew, Gilderoy Lockhart, Grindelwald, Narcissa Malfoy, one of Hogwarts' founders, MadEye Moody, ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-08; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by 75th on 2015-03-13.

HPMOR – Hat & Cloak is Snape ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-08; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-05-21.

HPMOR – Nicolas Flamel is Baba quote undying unquote Yaga is Hat & Cloak ( 10% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-08; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by 75th on 2015-03-13.

HPMOR – Nicolas Flamel is Baba quote undying unquote Yaga ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-08; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by solipsist on 2015-03-14.

At least 40% of my Calc I class will get at least one bonus question. ( 55% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-07; known on 2014-12-25; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-25.

I will assign between 10-30% of my Calc I students this semester. a grade of C- or lower. ( 75% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-07; known on 2014-12-25; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-12-26.

There will be a planned meetup with FMK during the week commencing 8/12 ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-12-07; known on 2014-12-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-12-13.

Someone (Skyler probably) goes ahead and implements the match maker service and suddenly posts it within a week. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by deskglass on 2014-12-07; known on 2014-12-14; judged wrong by deskglass on 2014-12-14.

The solar cell efficiency record will be at 60% by January 1st, 2035. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-12-06; known on 2035-01-01.

Mercury will not exist anymore by January 1st 2214. ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-12-06; known on 2214-01-01.

Lib Dems win Cambridge at next election. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged wrong by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.

Conservatives win Thanet South at next election ( 40% confidence )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06; known on 2015-05-07; judged right by rebellionkid on 2015-05-08.

Theresa May to be next tory leader ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-12-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2018-01-01.

I will do the gig on the 20th ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-05; known on 2014-12-21; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-21.

I will make at least one discussion level post on Less Wrong before January 15th ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-05; known on 2015-01-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-27.

Terminator Genisys will outperform Terminator Salvation in terms of gross box office take. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-05; known on 2015-09-20; judged right by Afforess on 2015-09-12.

Democrats to gain control of the US Senate in the 2016 elections. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2016-11-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09.

Finite group isomorphism problem found to be in P by 2045. ( 18% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2045-01-16.

I will have my students' final grades in by December 21st. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2014-12-22; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-22.

A polynomial time factoring algorthim (on a classical computer) will be discovered by 2045. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-04; known on 2045-01-16.

We will play T C tomorrow ( 30% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-04; known on 2014-12-06; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-05.

We will play BN tomorrow ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-04; known on 2014-12-06; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-05.

I won't work somewhere where I have to wear something more fancy than jeans in the next 5 years. (Jason said he thinks I will) ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2014-12-03; known on 2019-12-03; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2019-12-03.

Below 10% of my predictions will be meta-predictions by 2016 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-03; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

Below 10% of my predictions by 2016 will be about numbers of predictions ( 95% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-03; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

There will be a Youtube video with more views (on Youtube) than there will be living humans before 2020. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-12-03; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

Fewer than 5% of the predictions on this site are about something genuinely meaningful to either the poster or anyone around them. ( 92% confidence; 4 wagers; 15 comments )

Created by reallyyesreally on 2014-12-03; known on 2015-07-02; judged wrong by Philip_W on 2014-12-13.

QPR will beat/draw against Burnley ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-02; known on 2014-12-07; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-07.

Arsenal will beat/draw against Stoke ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-02; known on 2014-12-07; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-07.

My PredictionBook clone will have basic functionality (create predictions, assign probabilities, make judgments, and a tutorial showing how to do each) before 12/15/2014. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-12-01; known on 2014-12-15; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-12-04.

Liverpool will beat/draw against Sunderland. ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-01; known on 2014-12-07; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-07.

Chelsea will beat/draw against Newcastle ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-01; known on 2014-12-07; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-07.

Swiss Franc CHF will not be more valued than Euro EUR before end of first half of 2015. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by kuudes on 2014-12-01; known on 2015-07-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-15.

Depression rates be an average of 1.0% higher in each of the following age groups in 2022 (to adjust for any demographic shifts). We should have access to this data in late 2014 (ie 10 years from now). According to the NIMH's interpretation of the NSD ( 65% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2014-11-30; known in 7 days.

My startup Synaptitude raises at least $100,000 when we launch on Kickstarter sometime in Q1 (early) 2015: http://synaptitude.me/ ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by lettergram on 2014-11-30; known on 2015-05-01; judged wrong by lettergram on 2015-03-17.

If I receive it, Trinity's reply will be positive ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30; known on 2014-12-03; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-03.

I will get a reply from Trinity before Wednesday ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30; known on 2014-12-03; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-03.

I have already received my PR time ( 40% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-29; known on 2014-11-29; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-29.

I will go to Dawson's today ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-29; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.

If I go to PR tomorrow, I will get a new PB. ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-28; known on 2014-11-29; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-29.

I will go to PR tomorrow ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-28; known on 2014-11-29; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-29.

M will make a prediction on H's MI grade. ( 90% confidence )

Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2014-12-04; judged wrong by adri on 2014-12-05.

A and M will be regularly using PredictionBook one year from now. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2015-11-27; judged wrong by adri on 2015-11-29.

“Little sister” will go on a mission before 2016. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by adri on 2016-12-04.

A will submit application to DIKU instructorship before deadline. ( 85% confidence )

Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by adri on 2014-12-01.

A will get no less than 1 instructorship in blok 3 or blok 4. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2015-02-01; judged wrong by adri on 2015-01-07.

A will get 12 in Top. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2015-02-14; judged right by adri on 2016-12-04.

A will submit application to math instructorship before deadline. ( 80% confidence )

Created by adri on 2014-11-27; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by adri on 2014-11-28.

A will be at the lesson ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-27; known on 2014-11-27; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-28.

In hindsight, Uber valued at $40b will be identified as the one of key triggers of the 2014-2016 bubble. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2014-11-26; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

I will be a Worm character for Halloween ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

This wager will have an average estimate of 25-75% on Jan 10th, 2015. ( 69% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-01-10; judged right by adri on 2015-01-10.

Justen and I will dress up as Sirius and the Joker (Nolanverse) for Halloween. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by from3004 on 2015-10-31.

Justen Zhang will change major at least once by December 2015 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-12-16.

The “Bible of Shenanigans” will NOT be created by Justen Zhang and/or Kuba Stechly in a form that contains at least 50 high quality shenanigans by June 1 2016 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2016-06-02.

The “Bible of Shenanigans” will NOT be created by Justen Zhang and/or Kuba Stechly in a form that contains at least 50 high quality shenanigans by June 1 2015. ( 90% confidence )

Created by from3004 on 2014-11-26; known on 2015-06-01; judged right by from3004 on 2015-07-31.

The pimping squad and I will not move onto another club ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-26; known on 2014-11-29; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-29.

It was two of the blocks ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-26; known on 2014-11-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-30.

I will go to Asheville with friends in December. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2014-11-25; known on 2014-12-20; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-06-13.

I will finish CA today ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-25; known on 2014-11-26; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-26.

I will have over 20 predictions to be judged by 16th January ( 40% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-25; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.

I will have over 10 due predictions on 16th January ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-25; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.

I will buy a Yamaha by January ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-25; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-09.

There will be no single event causing the death of over 1 billion people (hereafter defined as an “apocalypse”) before January ( 98% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-01-05.

I still have no replies from the press ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2014-11-24; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24.

I will have begun using Evernote by next week ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-01.

I will have over 300 predictions by 2016 ( 34% confidence; 19 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

I will have over 100 complete predictions by August ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2015-08-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-08-16.

I will have over 45 completed predictions by January ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-24; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.

MS gets 10/10 on problem sheet 7 ( 83% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-24; known on 2014-11-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-25.

Rosanna will not say a word to me by or on 10:35 ( 58% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-24; known on 2014-11-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-24.

I watch UC and OC tonight ( 75% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-24; known on 2014-11-24; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-25.

Man U will beat/draw against Hull ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.

Swansea will beat/draw against Crystal Palace ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.

Aston Villa will beat/draw against Burnley ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by dpchalmers on 2014-11-29.

Liverpool will beat/draw against Stoke ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.

Arsenal will beat or draw against West Brom ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-23; known on 2014-11-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-30.

Statistics

Recent Predictions