PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will get at least a Silver in the UKMT ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-06; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-17.

I will get at least a Bronze on the UKMT ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-06; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-17.

TD did exam q's in the most recent problems class. ( 14% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06.

It's KA on the bus. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06.

One or both of us sees R in BK by 300s after I go through the door. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06; known on 2014-11-06; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-06.

In the US, a federal government shut-down will occur before the next presidential election. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-11-05; known on 2016-11-08; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-11-09.

We will have permanent off-Earth colonies by 2020 ( 10% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-04; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-01-17.

Nothing will pass the Turing Test before 2017 ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-04; known on 2017-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.

I will still be alive by Christmas ( 100% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-04; known on 2014-12-25; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-25.

Tony Dooley will start the break during the Metric Spaces lecture before 12:00 working by the time on my watch ( 14% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-04; known on 2014-11-04; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-04.

The increasing popularity of drinking water in the developed world is due to a biological adaptation, rather than a cultural one. This statement will be the conclusion of a study published in a credible scientific journal before 2036. ( 3% confidence )

Created by Philip_W on 2014-11-04; known on 2036-01-01.

I will make another sling by March ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-03; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.

I will read Winning Ways by March ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-03; known on 2015-03-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.

I will have no overdue tasks on January 1st ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-03; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-02.

The Thames is longer than 200 miles long as given in the Wikipedia info-box provided that a unique such figure is given ( 100% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-03; known on 2014-11-03; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-03.

Given I do not ask him first, Priest will ask me to play PB before or on Friday ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-03; known on 2014-11-07; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07.

M will be contacted and mention it to me with regards to my escapade by 10th November ( 27% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-03; known on 2014-11-10; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-10.

Pluto's mass as given in the Wikipedia infobox (assuming a unique such figure is given) is less than or equal to 5*10^12kg ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by BathLW on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by BathLW on 2014-11-02.

Simon Harris mentions the Tommy Hilfiger jumper comment when he reports on the feedback questionnaires ( 9% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-11-07; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07.

Date by or on 30/11 ( 40% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-01.

I will achieve an NC by or on 09/11 ( 51% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-11-02; known on 2015-10-11; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07.

China's nuclear weapon stockpile (preferably in the table) on the WP stockpiles article is <= 400 ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by BathLW on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged right by BathLW on 2014-11-02.

Publication date of the first chapter of Harry Potter and the Methods of Rationality on FF.net (for what is currently regarded as the first chapter) is 1st July 2008 or earlier. ( 15% confidence )

Created by BathLW on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by BathLW on 2014-11-02.

G.R.R. Martin is 54 colloquial years old or older ( 32% confidence )

Created by BathLW on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged right by BathLW on 2014-11-02.

Harry Potter main book series sales can be confirmed by us in under 5 minutes to be 850 million or greater. ( 28% confidence )

Created by BathLW on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-11-02; judged wrong by BathLW on 2014-11-02.

I will still be alive on Friday ( 99% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-02; known on 2014-11-07; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-07.

If I do the first stage, I will get through to the next stage of the BIO ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-02; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-09.

I will reach level 12 on Duolingo by June ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-02; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.

I'll finish the first chapter of TAOCP by January ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-01; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.

The next government will be a coalition ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-01; known on 2015-05-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-05-08.

Britain will still be part of the EU in 2016 ( 93% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-01; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

Hendo Hoverboards indeed delivers working hoverboards by the end of the year 2015. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by orthonormal on 2014-11-01; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by orthonormal on 2019-12-31.

Elon Musk is from California or New York ( 50% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-31; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-31.

Elon Musk is from the North-East, California, or outside of the US ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-31; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-31.

Elon Musk is from the USA ( 95% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-31; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-31.

Gmail will still exist in five years, in contrast to Mike Elgan's prediction. http://www.computerworld.com/article/2838775/why-google-wants-to-replace-gmail.html ( 91% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by qznc on 2014-10-31; known on 2019-10-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2019-11-09.

The price of bitcoin will have fallen below $200 by January. ( 25% confidence )

Created by erikbjare on 2014-10-30; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by erikbjare on 2015-01-01.

The Queen is older than 88 ( 60% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-30; known on 2014-10-30; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-30.

The queen is older than 83 ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-30; known on 2014-10-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-30.

The queen is older than 80 ( 95% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-30; known on 2014-10-30; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-30.

KnossOS will get more than 1 upvote on at least 1 sub ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-30; known on 2014-11-02; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-02.

There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2017 ( 7% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2017-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2017-01-16.

There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2020 ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by dvolk on 2020-01-10.

There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2025 ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known in 18 days.

50 or more candidates turn up to the first session of tryouts today ( 55% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-29; known on 2014-10-31; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-29.

There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2030 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2030-01-16.

I will get to level 30 in LoL by February ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2015-02-15; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-15.

I will watch Episode 4 of F/SN:UBW before Episode 5 airs. ( 70% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-29; known on 2014-11-09; judged right by tylercurtis on 2014-11-09.

By 2050 the majority of music will be “generated” and not recorded. This will include vocals. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2050-10-28.

Use of prediction tracking software will increase prediction accuracy over a 9 month period ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-07-28.

Over the next 100 years, California will slowly turn into a desert ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2114-10-28.

By 2080 most manufacturing and processing of materials will be done in space ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2079-10-28.

The r0 of the 2014 Ebola outbreak will be under 2 ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by msevrens on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-28.

There will be less than 20 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.

There will be less than 500 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.

There will be less than 5000 deaths from Ebola in the UK by March ( 99% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-16; judged right by kuudes on 2015-03-07.

There will be a death from Ebola in the UK by January ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-01-05.

We will go busking by Christmas ( 70% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-26; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2014-12-27.

We won't get a dog by January ( 90% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-01-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.

I will get a distinction at grade 8 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.

I will get a merit or above at grade 8 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-06-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.

I will pass my grade 8 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-06-16; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-05-08.

I will learn to pick locks by next year ( 80% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-09-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2016-01-16.

I will learn to pick locks by January ( 40% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-01-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2015-01-17.

I will learn to lockpick by November ( 20% confidence )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-11-16; judged wrong by sweeneyrod on 2014-11-16.

I will get all A's in my mocks ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-02-15; judged right by sweeneyrod on 2015-02-15.

In first semester exams for my third year, I will get 70% or higher ( 99% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-03-14; judged right by qwerty314 on 2015-03-06.

Number Close FMK by 1st December ( 11% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-07.

Number Close BOTH by 1st December ( 7% confidence )

Created by qwerty314 on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by qwerty314 on 2014-12-01.

My 100% category (and someone else's) dropped, and this was because of a reversed old prediction or site change, rather than a high-confidence prediction of mine being newly judged since Thursday 23rd November 2014 ( 99% confidence; 4 comments )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-06.

Conditional on it being the next action and sent by the end of Saturday 1st November, Megan replies to my text by or on Sunday 9th November. ( 67% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-11-10.

Number close Ellie2 by or on November 30th ( 20% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.

Number close LS by or on November 30th ( 16% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-11-01.

Number close RT by or on November 30th ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.

Meet up with Megan by or on 30th November. ( 40% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.

Meet up with Nicola by or on 30th November. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-12-01; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2015-01-12.

The meeting tomorrow is at the time I think it is. ( 80% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-28; known on 2014-10-29; judged right by tylercurtis on 2014-10-28.

BOTH decisively self-identifies C ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-27; known on 2015-01-01; judged right by qwerty314 on 2014-11-03.

Audrey's greenhouse will contain real live plants in 1 month ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Ham Nox on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-11-26; judged wrong by Ham Nox on 2014-12-04.

I will do 5-10 pomos (inclusive) today. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged right by from3004 on 2014-10-26.

I will do less than 5 pomos today. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-26.

I will do >10 pomos today. ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged wrong by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2014-10-27.

I will talk to my parents and sister on skype/hangouts/whatever for less than 1 hour today. ( 70% confidence )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-10-26; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-10-26.

I will learn Esperanto to a conversational level by July 31st 2015. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2015-07-31; judged wrong by from3004 on 2015-07-31.

I will be able to obtain HRT by the end of Feb 2015. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2015-02-28; judged wrong by from3004 on 2015-02-28.

I will get an A in Spectral Theory this semester ( 85% confidence )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-12-26.

I will get an A in Algebraic Geometry this semester ( 70% confidence )

Created by from3004 on 2014-10-26; known on 2014-12-25; judged wrong by from3004 on 2014-12-26.

Roshith will be back in college in 2015. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by roshith on 2014-10-26; known on 2015-12-24; judged wrong by roshni on 2016-01-15.

BJP will win no greater than 220 seats in 2019 general elections. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by roshni on 2014-10-26; known on 2019-06-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2019-06-20.

SIG will not offer me a position. ( 70% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-10-25; known on 2014-11-19; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-11-21.

Instacart will not ask me to interview for a position. ( 90% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2014-10-25; known on 2014-12-30; judged right by aarongertler on 2014-11-21.

My soylent will have a shorter time between first order and first delivery than D's. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-25; known on 2015-05-25; judged right by tylercurtis on 2017-04-09.

Tuxedage's crush will agree to date him, but he later won't really feel like he's dating her. ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Betawolf on 2014-10-24; known on 2014-10-24; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2014-10-26.

Tuxedage will face bitter rejection and defeat as he asks his crush to date him. ( 66% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2014-10-24; known on 2014-10-27; judged right by Tuxedage on 2014-10-26.

In the EA survey, at least 50% of non-student respondents will self-report that they donated at least 10% of their income in 2013. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2014-10-24; known on 2015-01-24; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2015-06-15.

I will go to N's thing tomorrow. ( 60% confidence )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-24; known on 2014-10-25; judged wrong by tylercurtis on 2014-10-25.

I will visit New York City before the fifth of January ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by tylercurtis on 2014-10-23; known on 2015-01-05; judged right by tylercurtis on 2015-01-05.

Michelle Nun takes Georgia. ( 60% confidence )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2014-10-22; known on 2015-01-01; judged wrong by NathanMcKnight on 2014-11-14.

Less than 10 people will die of Ebola in Germany within the next year ( 87% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged right by Josh Holland on 2015-10-21.

Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.

Statistics

Recent Predictions