PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Created by elephantower on 2017-08-31; known on 2017-08-31; judged right by elephantower on 2017-08-31.

s is running an old youtube-dl ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-31; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-01.

The Alpha Pundit Challenge, or something like it, will have converted five or more vague predictions from pundits into numerical predictions, beyond those described in Tetlock, Alpha Pundit Challenge Proposal, by December 31, 2016 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-01-01.

On 2018-01-01, Open Philanthropy Research Analyst Ajeya Cotra thinks CEA’s support of EA student groups has improved since September 2016 (conditional on Ajeya feeling she has enough evidence to make such a judgment) ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

On 2018-01-01, Nick Beckstead believes that cause prioritization working groups at universities are a cost-effective way of identifying new talent in the EA community (cond. on there being at least 3 such working groups, which he thinks is likely) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

Nick Beckstead considers EA Global 2017 better executed than EA Global 2016 ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-04-01; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-10-28.

By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that standard marketing and outreach (e.g. online ads) result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.

By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that EAGx events result on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.

By 2017-12-01, CEA provides compelling evidence that the Doing Good Better book giveaway results on average in a new GWWC pledge for less than $2,000 ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-12-01.

[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] More than 7,500 (more than 3x growth) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.

[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 5,000 and 7,500 (2x–3x growth) ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.

[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Between 3,500 and 5,000 (1.4x–2x growth) ( 50% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by ccokeefe on 2018-01-01.

[The total number of GWWC members on January 1, 2018, is] Less than 3,500 (i.e., growth to 1.4x the current total or less) ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by peter_hurford on 2020-01-26.

[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $1,250,000 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-02-01; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.

[The amount of money raised by 80,000 Hours by February 1, 2017, not including funding from the Open Philanthropy Project, will be at least] $750,000 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2019-02-01; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2019-12-15.

80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

[The number of impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 claimed by 80,000 Hours will be at least] 2,400 ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

[The number of impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 claimed by 80,000 Hours will be at least] 1,500 ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $5 million in some of the animal welfare groups groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $3 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will want to invest at least an additional $1 million in some of the animal welfare groups for their work in China after the two-year grant period is over ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-09-01.

The WildAid campaign will contribute to a noticeable decline in the growth of Chinese meat consumption by 2019-10-01 ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-10-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Brighter Green a major success ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2026-10-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Brighter Green a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2026-10-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a major success ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a major success ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-12-01.

Open Philanthropy Project's December 2016 grant to Impact Justice's Restorative Justice Project will play an important role in getting traction for the concept of restorative justice on a national level (United States) by 2020-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2022-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its December 2016 grant to Impact Justice for its Restorative Justice Project a cost-effective success on 2018-01-01 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

Professor Trevor Gaunt follows up or causes someone else to follow up with a proposal to widely effect positive policy change in this area [potential risks that geomagnetic storms] by 2027-10-01 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2029-10-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its September 2016 University of Cape Town Geomagnetics Research grant a success given that Professor Gaunt completes at least 80% of the work ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-10-01.

Professor Trevor Gaunt will complete 80% of the work for the Open Philanthropy Project Geomagnetics Research grant by 2019-10-01 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2021-10-01.

By August 15, 2020, the Financial Post in Canada won't exist, and this column's link won't be available. opinion/lawrence-solomon-how-teslas-elon-musk-became-the-master-of-fake-business ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by saskboy on 2017-08-29; known on 2020-08-15; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-08-16.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a success ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-12-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a major success ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a success ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a major success ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-04-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a success ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-04-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a major success ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-07-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a success ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-07-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a major success ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a major success ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-11-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-11-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a major success ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a success ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.

CIWF USA will play a major role in securing five or more new corporate cage-free pledges ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-05-01.

CIWF USA will persuade at least one major poultry company to adopt a meaningful broiler chicken welfare policy ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-05-01.

Pastor Kenneth Glasgow’s pastor network will play an influential role in the upcoming legislative sessions (for some definition of “influential” that Open Philanthropy Project is comfortable with in retrospect) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-08-01.

By 2016-10-01, the Prodigal Child Project will have made enough progress for more than 75 pastors to show significant support for incarceration reform (through, e.g., attending rallies, writing op-eds, giving sermons, or other actions) ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2018-10-01.

On 2018-09-01, the Center for Human-Compatible AI will be spending at least $2 million a year, and will be considered by one or more of Open Philanthropy Project's relevant technical advisors to have a reasonably good reputation in the field ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2020-09-01.

Open Philanthropy Project considers its December 2016 grant to Harvard University's Solar Geoengineering Research Program a success on 2027-01-01 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2029-01-01.

North Korea gets nuked by January 1, 2018 ( 2% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-08-28; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

Gary Cohn (Gary David Cohn) will not be the Director of the National Economic Council (NEC) before the end of 2017 ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-28; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-16.

Stormfront comes back up ( 49% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-27; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-19.

early election call in ontario ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2024-01-01.

Venezuela defaults on its debt ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.

more earthquakes than normal in cascadia region ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2018-06-16.

Flooding in texas, at least 1 casualty ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-08-29; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-27.

[Bundestagswahl 2017] Linke wird unter den Grünen liegen ( 60% confidence )

Created by MrBubu on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-10-24; judged wrong by MrBubu on 2017-10-24.

[Bundestagswahl 2017] it will end in a GroKo ( 70% confidence )

Created by MrBubu on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-10-24; judged wrong by MrBubu on 2017-10-24.

[Bundestagswahl 2017] Merkel bleibt Kanzlerin ( 80% confidence )

Created by MrBubu on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-10-24; judged right by MrBubu on 2017-10-24.

There will be at least one planeswalker in the upcoming MTG set Unstable ( 99% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-12-08; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-12-08.

Trump pardons Sheriff Joe Arpaio ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-23; known on 2018-08-23; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-26.

Josh Sokol-Rubenstein can correctly recall the hooks for LABELLA, GLABELLA, and FLABELLA in OSPD5 tournament Scrabble, upon seeing this prediction in 2 years. ( 45% confidence )

Created by quatrefoil on 2017-08-23; known on 2019-08-23; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2019-08-25.

In the Argentine PASO elections, Cristina Kirchner will obtain more votes in the final vote count than rival Esteben Bullrich, who currently leads the provisional results by 0.07%. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2017-08-20; known on 2017-09-05; judged right by Pablo on 2017-08-30.

Milo Yiannopoulos still politically active/relevant in 30 years ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-20; known on 2047-08-17.

It will be revealed that there is a massive pedophile ring is operating within the United States government ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2025-01-28.

The first time my dad returns home today, he has at least one pair of eclipse glasses ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by quatrefoil on 2017-08-19; known on 2017-08-19; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-08-21.

Solaren delivers 200MW to california grid at any point from Space Based Solar ( 37% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.

Functional Jubilee in the US ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-19; known on 2019-02-13; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2020-01-02.

Twitter engages in purging/mass censorship of marxists, anarchists, feminists or hacktivists / “next year it's anarchists or hacktivists or feminists or Marxists”-@bob ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-18; known on 2018-08-18; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Antifa ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-17; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

Antifa goes one step “too far”, commits act of unmistakeable err, is publicly roasted across the spectrum, and becomes much less prominent as a thing compared to 2017 ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-17; known on 2027-08-17.

Before Jan 1, 2018, at least five deaths will occur in the US widely attributed to Neo-Nazis killing people at political protests or rallies. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-08-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.

Within the three week period starting after three months after a public launch of LessWrong 2.0, the EA Forum will still have more unique new non-spam posts than LessWrong 2.0, not counting cross-posts that are originally posted somewhere else first. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by peter_hurford on 2017-08-16; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-12-16.

Sargon of Akkad gets cut from youtube ( 66% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-15; known on 2018-08-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

My FOIA request for the Szlackin report will result in me getting at least a redacted copy of the report before the end of 2017 ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2017-08-15; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2018-01-01.

The High Court of Australia will rule that the Government's proposal to conduct a postal plebiscite on same sex marriage is an invalid exercise of executive power ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sjy on 2017-08-15; known on 2017-09-12; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-09-10.

North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) before the end of August 2017 ( 70% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-14; known on 2017-09-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-08-26.

Connor McGregor will lose against Floyd Mayweather ( 77% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by liamesteban on 2017-08-14; known on 2017-08-26; judged right by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-08-27.

Charlottesville car admits to being a conservative ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-15.

Charlottesville car driver supports Trump ( 64% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged right by two2thehead on 2019-07-10.

Charlottesville car driver shown to be on legally prescribeable medication (such as SSRIs) ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-08-31.

Charlottesville car driver shown to be taking money from Soros ( 3% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2019-07-09; judged wrong by Cato on 2019-07-11.

Charlottesville car driver shown to be antifa escaping from BLM protesters ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-15.

I will be admitted to the 2017 Envision Conference ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2017-08-13; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by btrettel on 2017-08-28.

ladybugs found to return to their birthplace, like salmon ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2026-01-01.

I will get out of the apartment before 9:15am on Aug 12, 2017 ( 80% confidence )

Created by tmarkov on 2017-08-13; known on 2017-08-13; judged wrong by tmarkov on 2017-08-13.

I will get up from bed before 8am on Aug 12, 2017 ( 60% confidence )

Created by tmarkov on 2017-08-13; known on 2017-08-13; judged right by tmarkov on 2017-08-13.

Koback will use collection of state voter roles to coordinate voter suppression activities ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by atomicspaceman on 2017-08-12; known on 2018-11-10.

Trump does not refer to Charlottesville Car Attack on protesters as a “Terrorist Attack” or those who did it as “Terrorists” ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-12; known on 2017-10-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-17.

[North Korea launches at Guam] at least two missiles ( 38% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.

[North Korea launches at Guam] at least four missiles ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.

[North Korea launches at Guam] at least three missiles ( 35% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.

[North Korea launches at Guam] at least one missile ( 35% confidence; 15 wagers )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-10.

North Korea fires missiles at Guam, at least 1 casualty ( 20% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-11; known on 2017-08-31; judged wrong by Pablo on 2017-08-31.

The year end ATP number one for 2017 will be Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal ( 100% confidence )

Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-19; judged right by gurgus on 2017-11-20.

Rafael Nadal will be the year end number one in 2017 ( 66% confidence )

Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-19; judged right by gurgus on 2017-11-20.

There will not be another general election in the UK in 2017 ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

Statistics

Recent Predictions