Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Countries tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 54% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Cities tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 56% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Insects tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Mammals tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 55% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Internet protocols tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 56% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Cognitive biases tag will be less for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 53% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-01.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Analytical chemistry tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 56% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-02.
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The total number of desktop pageviews for the Korean television shows and series tag will be lower for June 2017 than for June 2016. ( 15% confidence )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-07-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-03.
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by age six months, my baby's eyes will still be blue ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-09-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2017-09-30.
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by age 6 months, my baby's eyes will be hazel or grey/green ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2017-06-02; known on 2017-09-21; judged right by taryneast on 2017-09-30.
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The Democratic Party will run Hillary Clinton for President in the 2020 election ( 3% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-02.
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Ubuntu Bug #1694531 's fault is something else ( 25% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-02.
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Ubuntu Bug #1694531 's fault is actually SystemD ( 25% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-02.
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Ubuntu Bug #1694531 's fault is actually Linux ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-07-02.
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The Matrix “The Next Generation” / prequels released by Warner Bros ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.
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Ariane 5 Flight VA237 will successfully launch within one week ( 60% confidence; 6 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-06-08; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-06-02.
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SpaceX's Falcon 9 will successfully launch within one week ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-06-08; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-04.
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Today, Donald Trump will withdraw, or announce his intention to withdraw, the United States from the Paris Climate accord ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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KPCB’s Internet Trends Report will hit 1,800 pages by 2020 ( 34% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-01; known on 2020-12-31.
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nh legislature democrat-controlled ( 40% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-05-31; known on 2017-05-31; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-05-31.
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More than 50% of households who have motorized vehicles in saskatchewan have at least 1 bicycle with an electric motor attached. ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-31; known on 2027-05-31.
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More than 50% of households in saskatchewan have at least 1 bicycle with an electric motor attached. ( 35% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-31; known on 2027-05-31.
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Donald Trump will withdraw, or announce his intention to withdraw, the United States from the Paris Climate accord ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-31; known on 2020-05-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-01.
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I will get over 1 million WP pageviews for WP articles created in 2017, for 2017 ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-31; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Personal – I move to remote working from Manchester by the end of 2017. ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-01-03.
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Community, Rationalist – Kernel Project is moved into Manchester by end of August. ( 60% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2017-09-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-08-01.
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Personal – I decide to move at least 80% of my EA donation budget to existential risk charities by June 2018. ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.
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Personal – I decide to move at least 10% of my EA donation budget to an organisation in the animal welfare cause area before June 2018. ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-07-06.
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Personal – I eliminate chicken meat from my diet for almost all my meals made either by myself (including instant meals) or by a restaurant or takeaway by June 2018. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-07-16; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-08-12.
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Personal – I am following a vegetarian diet such that I view it as morally unacceptable to eat meat in non-emergency circumstances as of June 2018. ( 28% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.
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Personal – I am following a reducetarian diet such that at least half of my meals involve none of meat, fish (excl bivalves), cheese, or egg as of June 2018. ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2018-06-02.
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Tech, Computex – Before the end of Computex, AMD states an intended month for the release of Ryzen Threadripper CPUs. ( 78% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-04.
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Tech – AMD Radeon Vega Frontier Edition launches before the end of June. ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Business, UK – Alex Cruz is no longer the chief executive of British Airways by the end of June. ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump announces partial but not full withdrawal from the Paris Agreement before the end of June 2017. ( 20% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-06-01.
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Politics, US – Donald Trump announces full withdrawal from the Paris Agreement before the end of June 2017. ( 50% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-29; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-01.
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Conditional on conservatives losing UK election 2017, at least one conservative MP accuses labour of illegally or immorally benefiting from russian influence or being russian plants in some way ( 48% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-07-08; judged unknown by jbeshir on 2017-10-21.
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[This week, I will get] more than 56 hours of sleep ( 20% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-06-03.
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[This week, I will get] between 49 and 56 hours of sleep ( 63% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-06-04; judged right by Mike on 2017-06-03.
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[This week, I will get] less than 49 hours of sleep ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-06-04; judged wrong by Mike on 2017-06-03.
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tracy hickman is female ( 80% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-05-28; known on 2017-05-28; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-05-28.
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Democrats gain control of the House of Representatives in the 2018 election. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by dipitashick on 2017-05-28; known on 2018-11-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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Democrats gain control of the Senate in the 2018 election. ( 31% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by dipitashick on 2017-05-28; known on 2018-11-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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At least 2 of the popular news aggregation services (Feedly, Inoreader, Digg Reader, NewsBlur, The Old Reader) will use their RSS aggregation apps as their main source of revenue, sustaining their business. ( 97% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2021-05-02; judged right by stepan on 2021-07-10.
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I will complete my PhD within +-3 months of the scheduled time frame. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2020-02-15.
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As a normal member of the public, if you visit America (California, etc.) you will be able to order a lift service (Uber, etc.) without a human driver at the wheel, for a price similar to the rates of current lift services, adjusted for inflation. ( 57% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Emmanuel M. Smith on 2017-05-26; known on 2022-06-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-06-03.
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bitcoin hard fork occurs ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-26; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-09.
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Serial killer found to be operating in Thunder Bay in 2017, causing at least 1 death in Thunder Bay in 2017 ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-26; known on 2026-12-31.
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bitcoin: trades above $10,000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $7700 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 19% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, Venezuela – President Maduro remains in power through the end of June. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $5500 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $4200 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $3000 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-08-01.
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bitcoin: trades above $3600 on GDAX.com at some point before the end of July. ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-08-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-01.
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Politics, US – Greg Gianforte apologises to the reporter he was charged with the assault of, including an apology that continues to understate things so long as it includes admission of error, by end of June. ( 30% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-06-08.
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I'll complete Timeless Consent before the end of the year. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Somni on 2018-01-01.
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Politics, US – The leaker of the photos of the Manchester bombing is publicly identified before the end of June. ( 7% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-07-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-01.
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Sign language becomes 3rd official language of Canada ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-25; known on 2018-12-31.
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willow tree instrumental song ( 70% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-05-25.
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AlphaGo will win Match Two against Ke Jie ( 96% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-05-25.
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My relatives (whom I haven't met before) will misgender me over dinner tonight. ( 95% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-05-25; known on 2017-05-25; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-05-25.
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BTC will exceed $2500 USD on Bitstamp by the end of May 2017 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sebnow on 2017-05-24; known on 2017-06-01; judged right by gwern on 2017-05-25.
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I will change once I go east (I fucking better!) ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2017-11-03; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-11-03.
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I will identify as a non-atheist to someone within my lifetime, starting now ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 3001-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Investor, producer or high-ranking internal official of Game of Thrones staff blames shorter season on piracy. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by shm on 2017-05-24; known on 2017-08-27.
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I convince Issa that the East™ is worth living in,,..,,.,,..,,. ( 14% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I leave east coast disappointed, sad, filled with regret, not worth it, etc ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2017-11-03; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-11-03.
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I'll have gotten intimate with an MIT girl/boy (must include physical) ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I will be living in Boston area as of March 2018 ( 26% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2018-03-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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Indonesia will devolve into a full-fledged islamic theocracy or decay into civil war-torn provinces largely dominated by Sharia law till the end of Ramadan 2019. ( 25% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Neonblitz on 2017-05-23; known on 2019-06-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-07-09.
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The Tory party will win the UK election with a majority. ( 74% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lauragonzalez on 2017-05-23; known on 2017-06-09; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-09.
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There will a hung parliament as a result of the current UK general election ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ikmacbeth on 2017-05-23; known on 2017-06-09; judged right by ikmacbeth on 2017-06-09.
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Alice will offer me an orange. ( 75% confidence )
Created by Somni on 2017-05-23; known on 2017-05-23; judged wrong by Somni on 2017-05-25.
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Mississippi State Rep Karl Oliver apologizes in some way for his lynching comment ( 80% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-22; known on 2017-11-22; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-23.
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I will continue to allocate thirty minutes a day to journalling and task management for the first week of the experiment and will not miss a session. ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Mike on 2017-05-21; known on 2017-05-28; judged right by Mike on 2017-05-28.
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bullock won lake county ( 60% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-05-20; judged right by elephantower on 2017-05-20.
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The House Will Have A Democratic Majority after the 2018 election. ( 69% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by Shuffledrive on 2017-05-20; known on 2018-11-06; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-09.
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Brazilian President Michel Temer will fall, renounce or have impeachment procedures initiated against him until mid-July 2017. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Neonblitz on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-07-15; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-07-15.
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Kenji Matsumoto wins the 2017 Niagara Falls Scrabble Tournament (prediction recorded after tournament started but before looking at results). ( 18% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-05-23; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-05-24.
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Jared Kushner is the person of interest mentioned in the Washington post article ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-20; known on 2027-05-20; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-05-26.
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I go to CRev. ( 40% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-06-05; judged wrong by quatrefoil on 2017-06-05.
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Prof will present the paper next week. ( 25% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-05-27; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-05-27.
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I will go to a certain meetup. ( 85% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-06-11; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-06-11.
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I will make dinner for my family on Friday, May 26th. ( 75% confidence )
Created by quatrefoil on 2017-05-20; known on 2017-05-27; judged right by quatrefoil on 2017-05-27.
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Even if net neutrality regulations are retained through Pai's chair, they will be enforced less than when enacted, and ISPs will continue most noncompliant practices unchallenged ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by erin on 2017-05-20; known on 2019-01-16.
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Y will ask Issa to do something for her during their meeting today ( 23% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-19; known on 2017-05-21; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-05-20.
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I will get above average on the PSAT. ( 91% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by playablecharacter on 2018-01-01.
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I will get a 5 on the APUSH exam. ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2017-07-13; judged right by thebaelfire on 2018-05-10.
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Trump will not be president at the beginning of 2018. ( 12% confidence; 20 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Another Nazi-punching college incident will occur this year. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by burning.harvest on 2019-08-25.
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The Democrats will take control of at least one Congressional house in the midterms. ( 70% confidence )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2018-12-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-11-10.
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The Republicans will not win the presidential election in 2020. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by burning.harvest on 2017-05-19; known on 2020-11-09; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10.
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I'll finish reading a book by the end of the month. ( 75% confidence )
Created by eusmagnus7 on 2017-05-19; known on 2017-06-01.
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The average age of the United States senate will be 48 years old by 2035 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jprettner on 2017-05-18; known on 2036-01-01.
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Scientists will find life on Enceladus before 2020, this information will lead us to realize life is also plentiful in the universe in different forms. ( 26% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by jprettner on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-01.
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Donald Trump will not be impeached or resign in his first term ( 66% confidence; 33 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bismagician on 2017-05-18; known on 2021-01-20; judged wrong by CaelumCodicem on 2019-12-19.
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Man City will winn Barclays Premier league. ( 35% confidence )
Created by giedrius on 2017-05-18; known on 2018-06-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.
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zip file has episode 385 in it ( 66% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-18; known on 2017-05-25; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-19.
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Trump creates “world peace” before leaving office ( 3% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-18; known in 5 days; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-03-31.