PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

0 Equifax executives convicted/jailed ( 65% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2017-12-31.

Trudeau's new Canadian copyright act removes ability to transfer copyright ( 8% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2019-12-31.

Children, on average, learn to be systematic before they learn to be quantitative ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2019-12-31.

Trump comments about Eminem's rap about him within thirty days ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-11; known on 2017-11-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-11-10.

Steve Bannon one of 5 remaining candidates in republican primaries, 2020 ( 4% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-11; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-01.

I will have dropped piano by this date ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by crabman on 2018-01-10.

I will have dropped piano by this date ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2017-11-11; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-11-20.

I will finish Geometry 1 at IUM this year ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-30; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-30.

I will finish Algebra 1 at IUM this year ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-30; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-30.

I will finish Analysis 1 at IUM this year ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-30; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-30.

I will finish the Deep RL course (http://edu.ipavlov.ai/RL/) #personal ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by crabman on 2018-01-10.

dawla al islamyya 'completely defeated' in iraq ( 49% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-10; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-01-01.

Catalan independence declaration ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-10; known on 2017-11-10; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-27.

bain event invite ( 10% confidence )

Created by elephantower on 2017-10-10; known on 2017-10-10; judged right by elephantower on 2017-10-10.

Michael Moore lives to see 26 states with legalized pot ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-08; known on 2099-12-31.

I will move before 2019 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.

I will use IRC in 2018 ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.

https://predictionbook.com/predictions/186415 + Stephen Paddock targeted the country music festival because Paddock or ISIS or a co-conspirator believed the attendees were more likely to be Trump voters or supportive of bomb-ISIS policies ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.

Stephen Paddock was a jihadi, or affiliated with ISIS, or carried out the Las Vegas attack on behalf of ISIS ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-08; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.

bankendominoes starts again in the US OR massive bail-in in US occurs ( 57% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-07; known on 2023-05-22.

bankendominoes starts again in the US OR massive bail-in in US occurs ( 51% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-07; known on 2018-05-22; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-09-02.

I am extradited to serve time in a US prison/black site ( 3% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-06; known on 2037-10-05.

Openly atheist POTUS ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-06; known on 2036-12-31.

Conditional on Jeremy Bentham's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-05; known on 2067-10-05.

Catalan independence declaration ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-05; known on 2017-10-10; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-10.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PmCDxmZI3I8 is censored ( 71% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-04; known on 2017-12-31.

(Rick&Morty): Orgu vf gur pybar ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-10-04; known on 2019-10-04.

Quitter comes back online ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-04; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-04.

LUST ICO turns out to be a scam ( 86% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-12-31.

The Guardian newspaper's obsession with sex robots will continue for the next two years at least. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2019-10-03; judged wrong by wizzwizz4 on 2019-11-15.

Lockheed Martin's Mars lander concept (as presented at IAC 2017) will be abandoned without ever being built. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2026-01-01.

Nintendo announces a new instalment in the Super Smash Bros franchise before the end of 2018. ( 15% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16.

Nintendo announces Melee HD for Switch before end of 2018. ( 10% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2019-01-11; judged wrong by Athrithalix on 2019-02-27.

Boris Johnson will not be sacked over recent Brexit issues within the next year. ( 65% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-10-03; judged right by Athrithalix on 2018-07-09.

Nevada will pass no further gun control laws as a result of the October shooting. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-10-02; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-26.

The SpaceX BFS to Mars missions will not stick to the schedule announced at IAC 2017. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2022-10-01.

The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will be declared successful, whether it meets all objectives or not. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-02-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-02-06.

The first SpaceX Falcon Heavy launch will fail to make its desired orbit. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2018-02-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2018-02-06.

SpaceX will delay the initial launch of the Falcon Heavy past the end of November ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2017-11-30; judged right by Athrithalix on 2017-11-02.

Brexit fails ( 29% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-02; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-12-31.

Trump approval rating below 38% (according to 538 all-polls) ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by ioannes on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2018-10-22.

Trump approval rating above 40% (according to 538 all-polls) ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ioannes on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.

brown shot gamby ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.

A stereo thief shot Gamby ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.

Russell was involved in the Gamby shooting (not exclusive with Ray shooting) ( 20% confidence )

Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.

Ray shot Neal Gamby (Vice Principals Season 2) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.

Ecuador kicks Julian Assange out from their London embassy ( 76% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-01; known on 2022-10-01; judged right by two2thehead on 2019-04-11.

Someone is jailed for building or selling child fembots(conversant, 'anatomically functional' robots capable of bipedal self directed movement that look like underage girls) ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-29; known on 2027-09-29.

I make the trip today without incident ( 96% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-29; known on 2017-09-30; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-29.

Conditional on Scott Adams's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of having schizophrenia/being schizophrenic ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-28; known on 2067-09-28.

Tom Price (Thomas Edmunds Price) will not be the Health and Human Services Secretary before the end of 2017 ( 51% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-27; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-29.

TbG: sebfg qentba ( 57% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-26; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-28.

Total marketcap of all cryptocurrencies on coinmarketcap(or it's successor) dips below 14B$ USD for longer than a day ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-26; known on 2018-09-26; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-10-26.

someone actually shows up to let me in to work today ( 73% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-25; known on 2017-09-26; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-26.

I am single ( 48% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-25; known on 2018-09-01.

Cycle of threats doesn't end. The united states and north korea each threaten to use nuclear weapons on eachother, in no uncertain terms, at least once every 6 months until 2027 ( 8% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-25; known on 2027-12-31.

Nuclear exchanging involving all 3 of US, Russia, China either beinig nuked, or nuking some other country within a week ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-24; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

North Korea will test (or attempt to test) a nuclear bomb (any yield, any method of delivery) between 24th Sept 2017 and before the end of 2017 ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-24; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2018-01-01.

North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) between 24th Sept 2017 and before the end of 2017 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-24; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-11-29.

Libertarian Party of Canada receives >2.1% of the vote in any federal election ( 58% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-23; known on 2060-01-01.

Libertarian Party of in Canada fields full slate(currently 338) candidates in a federal election ( 40% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-23; known on 2060-01-01.

more storms today in #tbay ( 53% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-22; known on 2017-09-23; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-23.

living things in Gliese 581g system as of past 20 years ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-21; known on 2400-01-01.

Someone senior in the trump administration goes to jail over collusion with the russians ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-21; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by timmartin on 2018-01-04.

End of the world/Nibiru collides with earth, not including(or at least beginning with) a human-made nuclear weapons catastrophe ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-21; known on 2017-09-24; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-24.

Conditional on the psych eval being released to the public, it will show that Martin Shkreli has aspergers or is on the autistic spectrum ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-20; known on 2027-09-21.

Conditional on Martin Shkreli's genome being sequenced, he will be shown to have a higher than average probability of being on the autistic spectrum/having aspergers ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-20; known on 2067-09-21.

news.ycombinator.com will shut down or be offline >= 1 week before 2019 ( 13% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-19; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-01-01.

I will get no worse than a B- for any class this term ( 60% confidence )

Created by regex on 2017-09-17; known on 2018-01-17; judged right by regex on 2018-05-04.

I will get at least two A's this term ( 39% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by regex on 2017-09-17; known on 2018-01-17; judged wrong by regex on 2017-10-28.

BTC priced at or above $25,000 five years from today ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-09-16; known on 2022-09-16; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2022-09-16.

at least 1 death at the march tomorrow ( 94% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2017-09-18; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-17.

Trump is being drugged by the deep state/some 3-letter-agency, and this becomes verifiable ( 1% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-01.

Trump massive crackdown on comedians. Bill Maher imprisoned(for comedy show) ( 4% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-15; known on 2025-01-01.

Wogs are less likely to listen to authority, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( incl or not limited to < 50% compliance ) ( 33% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-12; known on 2100-01-01.

Wogs are more likely to listen to the right kind of authority, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( in > 65% compliance ) ( 29% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-12; known on 2100-01-01.

Wogs do not differ, as a population, if ever tested on the Milgram experiment from the norm ( incl but not limited to 50-65% compliance ) ( 40% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-12; known on 2100-01-01.

Sept 12 Soyuz ISS 52S launches successfully ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-09-19; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-13.

[Verge iphone 8 rumours] New design ( 99% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.

[Verge iphone 8 rumours] Face scanning camera ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.

[Verge iphone 8 rumours] Wireless charging ( 89% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.

[Verge iphone 8 rumours] $999+ price ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-10-12; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.

iPhone X will have a 3.5mm headphone jack ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-12; known on 2017-09-13; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-09-12.

S.M. is gay ( 5% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-10; known on 2027-09-01.

I will see a platypus today ( 60% confidence )

Created by sjy on 2017-09-10; known on 2017-09-11; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-09-10.

Я не опоздаю на прыжок к 11:00. (если опоздаем все вместе из-за того, что я встречал Сашу, то не считается) ( 85% confidence )

Created by crabman on 2017-09-09; known on 2017-09-10; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-09-12.

Ubuntu 18.04 released, not totally unusable ( 87% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-09; known on 2018-05-01.

1.39$/L gas in tbay ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-08; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-02.

Taylor Swift's Look What You Made Me Do will reach 1 billion views on YouTube in fewer days than Adele's Hello. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-09-08; known on 2018-02-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-24.

[Gaydar] Dean-Charles Chapman comes out as queer ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-07; known on 2067-09-08.

[Gaydar] Isaac Hempstead-Wright comes out as queer ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-07; known on 2067-09-08.

BH will conclude his interview today is from a scam company ( 90% confidence )

Created by peter_hurford on 2017-09-05; known on 2017-09-06; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-09-07.

Utah public lands lawsuit reaches US Supreme Court ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-04; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-04.

North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) before the end of September 2017 ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-04; known on 2017-10-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-09-15.

US President Zuckerberg ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-03; known on 2020-12-01; judged wrong by arrowinthedark on 2020-12-03.

James Damore running his own business ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-02; known on 2018-03-03; judged wrong by colejhudson on 2018-03-14.

texting & driving illegal in most canadian provinces AND most vehicles (66%+) on the road fitted with safety features rendering such laws irrelevant ( 81% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-02; known on 2027-09-04.

Keith Schiller leaves the White House before the end of 2017 ( 85% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-01; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2018-01-16.

“SaskPower plans to reduce emissions by 40 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. By that year, it wants to have added an additional 1,600 megawatts of wind power over 2017 levels.” ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by saskboy on 2017-08-31; known on 2030-01-01.

Bitcoin was designed by a group of mathematicians as a side project while working for the NSA. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-31; known on 2027-01-01.

Statistics

Recent Predictions