PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

H. will be late at work ( 80% confidence )

Created by Medea on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-10-10; judged right by Medea on 2015-10-09.

I scored within 5% of an 80% on my physics prelim. ( 63% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by azax1 on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by azax1 on 2015-10-22.

I will have filed at least 1 application for a patent by 2020 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-10-08; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-01.

Only 21 LRS-Bs will actually be built. The Pentagon is planning to procure 80-100 LRS-Bs to replace the Air Force’s B-1 and B-52 bombers. The Pentagon won't achieve even 25% of its planned target. ( 57% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-08; known on 2030-12-31.

finish bot by friday 22h ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-07; known on 2015-10-09; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-23.

I will have at least two more papers published before September 15, 2016 ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-09-15.

I will have at least one more paper published before September 15, 2016 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-09-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2016-09-15.

My paper will be accepted to the AISTATS conference. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-07; known on 2015-12-29; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-12-22.

Zhongguo will be No 1 nation in nuclear power by 2022. ( 60% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2022-12-25.

Demographer Sanjeev Sanyal of Deutsche Bank predicts The Big Shrink. World’s fertility rate at replacement rate in 2025 World population peak 2055 at 8.7 billion and decline to 8.0 billion by 2100. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2025-12-31.

At least one major car brand not affiliated with WV will be caught for emission cheating during the next year ( 70% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by silacoid on 2015-10-07; known on 2016-10-07; judged right by kuudes on 2015-10-09.

Energy efficiency: T&D losses from the 22 % in 2015 to 15% by 2019 — Power Ministry Bharat ( 100% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-31.

RuPay (रूपे) and China UnionPay (中国银联) will surpass Visa and Mastercard as a payment network. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2025-05-28.

In 2027(latest possible date) the EU and Ukraine will recognize the liberation of Crimea as an indivisible part of Rossiya(Россия). ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2027-12-31.

Maldives will not have the same president or vice president at the end of 3/2016 as it has now (Yameen, Adeep). ( 65% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by kuudes on 2015-10-06; known on 2016-03-31; judged right by kuudes on 2015-11-06.

October 7th, 2015 will be the end of the world. – eBible Fellowship ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-06; known on 2015-10-08; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-08.

001-A(山东/Shandong) aircraft carrier was predicted by National Interest to take 9 years. It will take 4.5 -5 years. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2019-12-25.

It takes Newport News the better part of a decade to build a single supercarrier. China has no experience building any ship the size of an aircraft carrier—even a moderate-sized one like Liaoning. A minimum of 9 years can be inferred from their statement. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2020-12-25.

250 GW of solar and 100 GW wind power by 2030. 40 % of Bharat's total power capacity(850 GW estimate) will come from renewable sources by 2030. Official Climate change pledge. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2030-12-31.

Bharat's Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) target:63000 MWe by the year 2032. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2032-12-31.

Nuclear power in Bharat will be 16 Gw by 2030. ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2030-12-31.

Bharat's nuclear power will double to 10 000 MW by 2020.https://tinyurl.com/qds7raq ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-01-09.

Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha(IAF, भारतीय वायु सेना, Bharatiya Vāyu Senā) We are looking forward to building up our combat fleet to 42 squadrons by the end of the 14th plan, by 2027 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-05; known on 2027-12-31.

Within 30 years, the University of Maine will have a PhD program in mathematics (this does not count interdisciplinary with math). ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-04; known on 2045-10-04.

Ronda Rousey will win her Nov. 14 fight with Holly Holm. ( 74% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-11-15; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-11-15.

Bharat's carbon dioxide peaking year will be 2030. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2025-12-31.

I will trip over the ethernet cable across the living room doorway in the next week ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Josh Holland on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-10-10; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-10-13.

USA will be No 1 nation in mass shootings for 2013-15. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2015-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-19.

Chief of the World Coal Association (WCA) Benjamin Sporton “Demand for coal in 2040 globally will be 33 % bigger than it is now. " ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2030-12-25.

At least 4% of non-electric vehicles sold in 2020 in the US will be diesel. ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02; known on 2021-06-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.

Staock market will finish down for the year ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jaaksbus on 2015-10-02; known on 2015-10-04.

Number of diesel vehicles sold in US will comprise more than 4% of total vehicles sold in 2020 ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-10-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-09-12.

Them's Fightin' Herds will reach its funding goal. ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by timujin on 2015-10-02; known on 2015-10-22; judged right by timujin on 2015-10-19.

Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 25% from its 2005 levels by 2020. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2020-12-25.

Bharat will reduce emission intensity of the economy by 35% from its 2005 level by 2030 ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2030-12-31.

Zhongguo(中国) will be world's largest economy in nominal(USD, current prices) terms by 2020. ( 86% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-02; known on 2019-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-30.

Randall Lee Reetz will either not respond to my last two comments in the next 48 hours or if he does, will not include in the first two comments either a definition of “science” or of “engineering” ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02; known on 2015-10-03; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02.

Antibiotics prescribed less than 415 times per 1000 Americans in 2050 ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-10-01; known on 2051-01-01.

One of the remaining teams (others) will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.

H2K will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.

Bharat will lead the world in 4G. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-01; known on 2018-12-11; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2018-12-20.

CLG will win worlds. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.

Origen will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.

SKT1 will win worlds. ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.

Fnatic will win worlds. ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-11-02.

C9 will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.

TSM will win worlds. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-01; known on 2015-10-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-10-12.

By 2025, proven that there exist infinitely many primes p and q with |p-q| < 200. ( 65% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-30; known on 2025-01-01.

FBI investigation will find no criminal activity on Hillary Clinton's part. ( 80% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-30; known on 2016-10-01; judged right by elephantower on 2016-09-28.

Either the Koru flag or the Red Peak flag will be chosen in the first New Zealand flag referendum. ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-30; known on 2015-12-12; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-12.

I will have sold all Bernie-no shares on PredictionBook that I currently own at a profit by October 10 ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-29; known on 2015-10-11; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-30.

By 2060 under assumptions of ETH and that PH does not collapse, and PH != PSPACE != EXP, proven that factoring in Beta_P^GI / poly or that factoring in Beta_P^MSCP. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-29; known on 2061-01-01.

All Ohio Kasich/Boehner ticket wins GOP nomination. ( 2% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-29; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.

Boehner's resignation turns out to be part of a play to get Boehner on one of the GOP presidential tickets. ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-09-29; known on 2016-11-16; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.

A public, high-speed (at least 4G speed), backwards compatible and equivalent internet to the current fibre-based system, in the HF radio spectrum, suitable for at least national propagation between nodes, implemented by 2025 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by luxpir on 2015-09-29; known on 2026-01-01.

Quantum computing will be accessible to the world's public, for sale or rent, by mid-2025. ( 44% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by luxpir on 2015-09-29; known on 2025-07-01.

There will be a major blizzard in Denver in either October or November 2015 ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-09-28; known on 2016-01-01.

The next candidate to drop out of the Republican Presidential primary will be one of Jindal, Santorum, Gilmore, Pataki, Graham or Pence ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-11-18.

Under assumptions of PH not collapse to finite level, PH != PSPACE, PSPACE != EXP, PSPACE not in P^{MSCP}/poly, UGC, GI is not in BQP, factoring is not in P, and NC != P, proven that BPP is contained in ZPP^(NP^MSCP) by January 1, 2100 ( 100% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2100-01-01.

The US federal government to shut down before October 2nd ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2015-10-03; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2015-10-01.

The US to have a population between 310 million and 334 million on January 1, 2017 ( 99% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.

The US to have a population between 300 million and 340 million on January 1, 2018 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-27; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.

Major Atmospheric Cerenkov Experiment Telescope, the world's 2nd largest γ ray telescope will be completed in 2017 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2017-12-31.

Chandrayaan-2 (चन्द्रयान-२) 2nd lunar exploration mission. Launched by GSLV includes a lunar orbiter, rover and a lander landing on the moon and exploring. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2018-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-01-01.

Bharat total exports in world markets to be 3.5% by 2020, doubling it in five years. USD 900 billion by 2020, almost double from USD 461 billion in 2013-14. -High Commissioner Vijay Thakur Singh ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2020-12-26.

Bharat will produce 2.4—2.5 million tonne aluminium in 2015-16 and be ranked 3rd or 4th in the world from 2.1 million in 2014. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2016-12-25.

Zhongguo(中国) will outspend the US on science by 2020 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-27; known on 2020-12-25.

I will not play a single game of chess online the remainder of 2015. ( 68% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2016-01-02.

Somebody will run a World Record at the 2015 Berlin Marathon (as has happened 3 of the last 4, and 5 of the last 8 years). ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by tstelzig on 2015-09-26; known on 2015-09-27; judged wrong by tstelzig on 2015-09-30.

Matt Llano will break 2:10 at the Berlin Marathon this Sunday (like he says he will). ( 15% confidence )

Created by tstelzig on 2015-09-26; known on 2015-09-27; judged wrong by tstelzig on 2015-09-30.

I will accept an offer for a PhD program at UC Berkeley or Stanford. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-05-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-05-01.

eBay, Inc. will spin off, sell, or shut down another one of its business units before 2023. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-09-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2017-12-11.

NASA's Mars discovery announcement will involve indications of liquid water. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-09-26; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2015-09-28.

The Angry Birds Movie will gross under 150 million in its first four weeks. ( 59% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-26; known on 2016-09-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.

The average grade for the graph theory test for the math 101 students will be at least 75%. ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-25; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02.

The average grade for the test for my Math 101 students in the 1 PM class will be higher than that for the 10 AM class. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-25; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-02.

Pebbles (elderly pet Labrador) will still be alive by the end of 2016 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2017-01-01.

I will have a rating above 1500 on lichess.org at the end of 2015 ( 70% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.

I will stay sober until the end of 2015 ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Josh Holland on 2015-09-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Josh Holland on 2016-01-01.

R(5,5) known by January 1, 2052 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-24; known on 2052-01-01.

Paraplegia due to spinal cord injury cured in greater than 90% of cases before 2050 ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.

I will get in my A1 ( 70% confidence )

Created by mingming2221 on 2015-09-24; known on 2016-08-10; judged right by mingming2221 on 2016-08-11.

Solar power to become cheaper than or equivalent to conventional coal prices over the next three years and reach Rs 4/kWh-Rs4.5/kWh by FY18, says India Ratings and Research. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-24; known on 2018-12-31.

Bharat will have 294 5th gen fighters – 50% more than the USAF F-22s. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-24; known on 2030-12-25.

Defence Minister Manohar Parrikar: 1 billion (Rs 6,600 crore) worth of defence equipment will be exported in three years. ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-24; known on 2018-12-31.

The 6.85 patch for Dota 2 will be released today (Seattle time, UTC -0700). ( 75% confidence )

Created by raehik on 2015-09-24; known on 2015-09-24; judged right by raehik on 2015-09-25.

No Magic: The Gathering film will have been released in more than 1000 theaters by January 1st, 2020. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by aarongertler on 2015-09-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02.

Bhāratīya Nau Senā (भारतीय नौ सेना) wil be a 200 ship fleet by 2027 – Admiral P Murugesan ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-24; known on 2027-12-31.

Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2100 ( 60% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2100-01-01.

Invisibility cloak capable of concealing human sized objects developed before 2050 ( 8% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-24; known on 2050-01-01.

Kanye West elected President by 2032 — Scott Adams ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2015-09-23; known on 2032-11-10.

Bank nonperforming loans will exceed 2.5% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-09-23; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-03-08.

Bank nonperforming loans will exceed 2% of gross total loans in China by the end of 2016. ( 63% confidence; 9 wagers; 38 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-09-23; known on 2017-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2019-02-25.

The VIX index will go above 27 by October 1st 2015 ( 57% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-09-23; known on 2015-10-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-09-29.

My income will be 10% higher than it is now. ( 40% confidence )

Created by iajrz on 2015-09-23; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by iajrz on 2016-01-16.

My total debt will be 500 USD lower than it is now. ( 90% confidence )

Created by iajrz on 2015-09-23; known on 2016-01-16; judged right by iajrz on 2016-01-16.

Q falls asleep in the car on the way to Canada ( 65% confidence )

Created by prophetofprofit on 2015-09-22; known on 2015-09-22; judged wrong by prophetofprofit on 2015-09-23.

My diabetic partner won't be hospitalized this week despite their intention. ( 81% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by marchdown on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-09-28; judged right by marchdown on 2015-10-23.

Faster-than-light communication developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.

Antibiotics prescribed less than 50 times per 1000 Americans in 2050 ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2051-01-01.

Statistics

Recent Predictions