PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

We probably won't be able to find the rat article with greater than 50% confidence. ( 50% confidence )

Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Ray on 2015-10-28.

I will have more than 12 non-useless ideas. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Ray on 2015-10-28.

In five minutes, I will think of at least five somewhat-useful ideas on how to improve the exercise we’re doing tonight. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.

Ray has read at least five fanfiction stories in his life. ( 75% confidence )

Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.

Ray lives in New York. ( 98% confidence )

Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.

Rory is not a fan of firefly. ( 55% confidence )

Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Ray on 2015-10-28.

When I ask Ray whether today was better than average for him, he will say yes. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.

Rory is annoyed when meetings go over ( 80% confidence )

Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Ray on 2015-10-28.

When I ask Ray whether he thinks it’s okay to lie to protect someone’s feelings, he will say it is. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.

When I ask Ray whether he considered himself popular in high school, he will say he did not. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged wrong by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.

When I ask Ray whether meetings that overrun their scheduled time bother him, he will say they do. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28.

In the month of November, I will make at least four predictions on this site. ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Rory O’Kane on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-12-02.

By 7pm tomorrow, it'll be possible to upload an image on the local Agora site. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Ray on 2015-10-28; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by Ray on 2015-10-28.

The Long Range Strike Bomber will cost at least $846 million per plane (in FY2016 dollars). ( 78% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2015-10-28; known on 2025-01-01.

Bharat's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report would be at least 105, up from 130 in 2016. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28; known on 2017-11-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-30.

K will message me again ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Josh Holland on 2015-10-27; known on 2015-11-04; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-11-04.

By the end of the century, one or more countries bordering the Persian Gulf (or their successor national or subnational territories) will have a permanent human population of zero. ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2015-10-27; known on 2116-01-01.

5-sigma evidence of neutrinoless double beta decay by January 1, 2025 ( 52% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26; known on 2025-01-02.

I will have marked all assignments (except ones suspected of plagiarism) by noon Thursday. ( 59% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-26; known on 2015-10-29; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-10-28.

Australia will win the 2015 Rugby World Cup. ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-26; known on 2015-11-01; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2015-10-31.

Venezuela to go to war with at least one other country before November 1, 2025. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-25; known on 2025-11-02.

We will know the elections results in Poland on Tuesday or earlier ( 81% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-28; judged right by argothiel on 2015-10-26.

Coalition for the Renewal of the Republic – Liberty and Hope will get to the Parliament during 2015 elections in Poland ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-29; judged wrong by argothiel on 2015-10-26.

Law and Justice party will win the 2015 elections in Poland ( 95% confidence; 6 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by argothiel on 2015-10-25; known on 2015-10-29; judged right by argothiel on 2015-10-26.

My opponent has the third Dominator Drone they need to win. ( 70% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2015-10-24; known on 2015-10-24; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-10-24.

Lowest grade of the Math 101 test will be 13/50 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-10-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26.

The average for the 1 PM math 101 class will be higher than that for the 10 AM. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-10-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26.

The average for the math 101 test on voting theory will be at least 40/50. ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-10-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-26.

Paul Ryan will become Speaker of the House of Representatives in 2015 ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Afforess on 2015-10-23; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Afforess on 2015-10-29.

Submit Facebook thing ( 15% confidence )

Created by eugenium on 2015-10-23; known on 2015-11-02; judged right by eugenium on 2015-11-02.

Benjamin Netanyahu's proposed legislation to implement mandatory minimum sentences for stone throwers will still be there two months after the Knife Intifada has ceased. ( 60% confidence )

Created by mojo.rhythm on 2015-10-23; known on 2016-01-01.

The @VegAssist Twitter bot will have at least 60 followers by the end of 2015. ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by akrasib on 2015-10-22; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by akrasib on 2015-10-27.

The @VegAssist Twitter bot will be banned before July 2016. ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by akrasib on 2015-10-22; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-01.

At least one Dutch citizen will be penalized for downloading/spreading copyrighted material using a P2P system using a device located in the Netherlands before the end of 2016. A case started before 2017, but finished in the year 2017 counts as well. ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by akrasib on 2015-10-22; known on 2017-01-01.

At least one Dutch citizen will be penalized for downloading/spreading copyrighted material using a P2P system on a device located in the Netherlands before the end of 2015. A case started before 2016, but finished in the year 2016 counts as well. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by akrasib on 2015-10-22; known on 2016-01-01.

CIA director John Brennan will resign by 1 Feb 2015 ( 18% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by James Babcock on 2015-10-21; known on 2016-02-01; judged wrong by James Babcock on 2016-02-01.

I will receive a written reprimand tomorrow. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-20; known on 2015-10-21; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-22.

Haruki Murakami will win the next Nobel Prize in Literature. ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-20; known on 2016-11-01; judged wrong by penten on 2016-10-14.

Tsai Ing-wen will win the election for the Presidency of the Republic of China (Taiwan). ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-20; known on 2016-01-17; judged right by danielfilan on 2016-01-16.

Eliezer Yudkowsky to have at least 1 child by 2020 ( 22% confidence; 31 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by sdr on 2015-10-19; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2020-01-01.

M:BG will have a playable alpha. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-19; known on 2016-06-16.

I'll have a test on Tuesday. ( 60% confidence )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-19; known on 2015-10-20; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-20.

A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2032 to accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare. ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by SmoothPorcupine on 2015-10-18; known on 2032-07-16.

A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2031 to publicly accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by SmoothPorcupine on 2015-10-18; known on 2032-07-16.

463 midterm average will be at least 45 out of 60. ( 42% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.

463 midterm average will be at least 15 out of 60 ( 90% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.

463 midterm average will be at least 25 out of 60. ( 63% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.

Average for 463 midterm will be at least 35 out of 60. ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.

I will finish grading my 463 students' midterm by midnight EST tonight. ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-18.

Line at the barber will be less than ten minutes. ( 80% confidence )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-18; known on 2015-10-18; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-19.

Something sweet is baking in the oven. ( 60% confidence )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-17; known on 2015-10-17; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-17.

Xi Jinping pledges to remove poverty in Zhongguo by 2020. 70.17 million people in the countryside live below the poverty line of 2,300 yuan (USD 376) in annual income at 2014. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-06-11.

Zhongguo's wind power capacity will hit 120 gigawatts ( 68% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2015-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-05.

Bharat's defence exports will at least double to Rs1200 Crore. ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2016-03-31; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-29.

Bharat cumulative installed electricity capacity will be over 600 GW by 2025 ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2025-12-28.

Brasil will reduce 43% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2029-12-31.

Brasil will reduce 37% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 from 2005 levels—Dilma Rouseff ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2026-01-01.

Toyota said by 2050, gas-electric hybrids, plug-in hybrids, fuel-cell cars and electric vehicles will account for most of its global vehicle sales. That means gasoline- and diesel-engine powered cars(85%) will be near zero. ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2045-10-18.

I will miss one of tomorrow's flights. ( 7% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-17; known on 2015-10-19; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-19.

I will be less surprised when encountering the illusion of transparency. ( 70% confidence )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-12-16; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-19.

Acting will be correlated with my spouse's perception of a positive relationship. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-07-16.

Score at least 150 on a PLSAT ( 90% confidence )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-12-16.

I will use predictionbook at least once a week. ( 32% confidence )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-04-16.

DRACO proves effective. ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2040-01-01.

The DRACO Indiegogo campaign will reach 100,000. ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-12-12; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24.

I will master peg method. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-11-16; judged right by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-17.

I will complete Anki reviews every week until April. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-04-16.

I will learn enough perspective to improve my drawing. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-04-16.

I will acquire enough python knowledge to contribute to a GitHub project. ( 10% confidence )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-08-16.

I will acquire enough javascript knowledge to contribute to a GitHub project. ( 35% confidence )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-04-30.

Reduce food costs by $100 next month. ( 49% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by memoriesofbutter on 2015-11-30.

I will lack living funds for at least one month next year. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-12-16.

I will get an 1800+ upon retaking the SAT. ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-10-16; known on 2016-01-16.

I will have sex with someone I don't know tonight ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-10-17; judged wrong by RoryS on 2015-10-18.

I will have sex with someone I know tonight ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by RoryS on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-10-17; judged right by RoryS on 2015-10-18.

Theranos will be given FDA approval for the majority of their finger prick blood tests. The FDA have already approved the herpes test, and I predict that the FDA will go on to approve (most of) the remainder of the tests submitted by Theranos. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by rhiannon on 2015-10-16; known on 2017-10-16.

We will stop seeing each other ( 60% confidence )

Created by RoryS on 2015-10-16; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by RoryS on 2015-10-16.

Neumann Space will be moderate failure (I'll make no money and lose my investment) ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged wrong by taryneast on 2016-10-18.

Neumann Space will be moderately successful (I'll be able to pay off my mortgage) ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged wrong by taryneast on 2016-10-18.

Neumann Space will be partially successful (I'll make back the money I put in) ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged right by taryneast on 2016-10-18.

Neumann Space will be a resounding disaster (I'll lose a lot of money) ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged wrong by taryneast on 2016-10-18.

Neumann Space will be extremely successful (I'll be able to retire) ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by taryneast on 2015-10-15; known on 2016-10-15; judged wrong by taryneast on 2016-10-18.

Quantum version of ETH disproven by January 1, 2056 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-15; known on 2056-01-01.

Alexander Coward's firing from UC Berkeley Mathematics department will be overruled. ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-15; known on 2015-12-01; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-12-01.

KIC 8462852's strange light patterns will be determined within a very high confidence to be natural by November 1, 2027 ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-14; known on 2027-10-02.

Hierophant will be unable to perform a task he wishes to perform within the next 4 years due to akrasia. ( 20% confidence )

Created by Hierophant on 2015-10-14; known on 2019-10-14.

No human will land on another planet before 2050 and survive on that planet for at least 5 years. ( 54% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Hierophant on 2015-10-14; known on 2055-01-01.

The girl that messaged me last night is a real human. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-13; known on 2015-10-16; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2015-10-16.

In the next 10 years Columbus Day will stop being a US federal holiday, or will be changed to Indigenous People's Day or some other non-Columbus-themed alternative. ( 25% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-13; known on 2025-10-13.

Saudi Arabia and Turkey will be invaded by Russian forces before 2017. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Znt on 2015-10-13; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-01-01.

Effective herpes vaccine developed by 2040 ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by btrettel on 2015-10-12; known on 2041-01-01.

At least 50% of living Americans will need to barter for, hunt, or farm their own food for survival sometime between 2016 and 2050, including those years ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-10-12; known on 2051-01-01.

Bashar Al-Assad government will control at least 50% of Syrian territory by next year. ( 58% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2016-12-31.

Rossiya's real GDP growth for 2016 will be at least 0.7% for full year. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12; known on 2016-12-31.

Of the 7 satellites of IRNSS satellite navigation constellation, 4 are already in orbit while the remaining 3 will be in place by March 2016. ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-12; known on 2016-03-30; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-27.

The Majorana Demonstrator or its successor experiment will find 5-sigma evidence of neutrinoless double beta decay by January 1, 2020. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-11; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

2025 there will be about 2.7 billion with excess weight, up from 2 billion in 2010. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-10; known on 2025-05-28.

The Australian National University will change the name or acronym of its Interactive Student Information System (ISIS) some time in the next year. ( 33% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by danielfilan on 2015-10-10; known on 2016-10-10; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2016-10-10.

Paul Ryan will choose to run for Speaker of the House ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Afforess on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-11-01; judged right by danielfilan on 2015-10-23.

Angela Merkel to win peace Nobel price ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by dhoe on 2015-10-09; known on 2015-10-09; judged wrong by dhoe on 2015-10-09.

Statistics

Recent Predictions