PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

The LDS Church will not withdraw from the BSA. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Makhura47 on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-12-15; judged right by Makhura47 on 2016-09-19.

Will not be Teacher's Aide for a third semester. ( 80% confidence )

Created by Makhura47 on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-12-15; judged right by Makhura47 on 2015-10-22.

Will pass FDREL 121 with A- or higher. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Makhura47 on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-09-14; judged wrong by Makhura47 on 2015-10-22.

Will pass CIT 110 with A- or higher. ( 90% confidence )

Created by Makhura47 on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-09-14; judged right by Makhura47 on 2015-10-22.

A substance will be found with a melting point of at least 7,520 F by 2030. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-28; known on 2030-01-01.

The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2050 ( 79% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2050-01-01.

The Boy Scouts will admit openly atheist scouts before 2020 ( 27% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2020-01-02; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-01-02.

The Mormon church will decide to cease operating Boy Scout troops or operate troops under a different organization by 2016 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-28; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-01-01.

I will finish at least one textbook in the next two weeks ( 10% confidence )

Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-08-14; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-08-14.

> 50% of new PC games to have a Linux port by 2025 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2026-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-03.

Rand Paul to do IAmA by 2016 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2017-01-01.

Blockchain-based social platform to come out by 2020, and become a Top 1000 site (https://medium.com/@ryanxcharles/fix-reddit-with-bitcoin-7da3f85fb9ba ) ( 29% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.

There will be an commercially available way to auto-scan all your old notebooks into your hard drives by 2020 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.

Strong AI to arise out of IBM ( 11% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.

Bitcoin will collapse as a currency by 2030 ( 33% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2031-01-01.

California almond production to be less than 50% that of 2015 by 2025 ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2026-01-01.

Titan to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 5% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

Mars to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 21% confidence; 10 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

Europa to have detectable non-anthropogenic life on it ( 15% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2099-01-01.

At least one centenarian to volunteer for anti amyloid therapy by 2025 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2026-01-16.

YouTube to allow searching videos by audio contained in the video by 2025 ( 66% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2026-01-16.

I will follow up with my plans for the day (Meeting, coursera and 5-min exercises) ( 90% confidence )

Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-27; known on 2015-07-28; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-07-28.

Manually driving a car will be outlawed in the U.S. by 2035 ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-27; known on 2036-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04.

I'll get accepted to volunteer at EA global Oxford ( 10% confidence )

Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-26; known on 2015-08-28; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-08-27.

Pandora will call me with a “special offer” by 2016-07-01 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-26; known on 2016-07-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2016-07-09.

John Kerry to run for President in 2016 ( 5% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-26; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.

Will finish Mars story ( 15% confidence )

Created by LordDenton on 2015-07-26; known on 2015-07-29; judged wrong by LordDenton on 2015-07-29.

“by 2030 we should have the capability to upload a person’s consciousness to a computer system” ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-26; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

Inflation adjusted GDP in California will be statistically significantly less than the rest of the U.S. over the next 10 years. Paired ANOVA, p < 0.05, based on the same source that led to this data or equivalent http://www.lao.ca.gov/LAOEconTax/Article/D ( 5% confidence )

Created by Porejide on 2015-07-25; known on 2025-07-25.

Complete marathon ( 20% confidence )

Created by sdafdsfsdfdsfa on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-10-19; judged right by sdafdsfsdfdsfa on 2015-10-23.

Graduate ( 80% confidence )

Created by sdafdsfsdfdsfa on 2015-07-25; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by sdafdsfsdfdsfa on 2017-01-01.

Veré 6 películas en una semana ( 80% confidence )

Created by acradis on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-08-01.

Acabaré el libro de Grimm y empezaré y acabaré el siguiente libro ( 70% confidence )

Created by acradis on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-07-28; judged wrong by acradis on 2015-07-28.

Escribiré al menos dos historias cortas ( 60% confidence )

Created by acradis on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-08-01.

I'll write a prediction every day for the next week (Sat-Fri) ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-07-31; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-07-31.

Hare una prediccion cada dia (una semana) ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by acradis on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-09-17.

Movie theaters to be less popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-25; known on 2021-01-01.

I will get at least 7 wins in this mage arena run ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PurpleDango on 2015-07-25; known on 2015-07-30; judged right by PurpleDango on 2015-07-25.

Oliver Sacks will live into 2016 ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-25; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-15.

PredictionBook will feature a JSON API before August. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-24; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-01.

Use of cell phones common as of 2015 will be considered carcinogenic by 2065-08-01 ( 2% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-24; known on 2065-08-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

At least one major stock exchange will have 24/7 trading hours before the end of 2030 ( 63% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Afforess on 2015-07-23; known on 2030-12-31; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

Kepler 425b to have detectable life on it ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-23; known on 2099-01-01.

Donald Trump to run as a third party candidate in the 2016 election. ( 11% confidence; 19 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-09-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.

I'm using AT&T ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Adam Zerner on 2015-07-23; known on 2015-07-23; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2015-07-23.

By July 1, 2016, Younes and Rowe's paper claiming to prove that NP is in BQP will not be widely accepted as correct. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-23; known on 2016-07-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-07-01.

Meteor summer hackathon will have over 200 applications ( 65% confidence )

Created by yaliceme on 2015-07-23; known on 2015-07-24; judged wrong by yaliceme on 2015-07-23.

Rex Computing products (including the Neo Chip) to capture at least 1% of the CPU market by 2020 (see http://fortune.com/2015/07/21/rex-computing/?xid=soc_socialflow_facebook_FORTUNE, http://www.rexcomputing.com/) ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-22; known on 2021-01-01.

Goodreads to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-22; known on 2021-01-01.

L will pass AuD ( 70% confidence )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-21; known on 2015-08-21; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-23.

The Verge to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2021-01-01.

My future will be bright and enjoyable. ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-07-21; known on 2016-12-30; judged wrong by RoryS on 2016-12-29.

TTIP will not come into force ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by modulus on 2015-07-21; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-01.

Christopher P. McKay to do IAmA on reddit by 2025 ( 51% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2026-01-01.

New York Times to have higher readership in 2025 than 2015 ( 35% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2026-01-01.

On average, there will be more measles cases in the last half of the 2010s than the first half of the 2010s ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2021-01-01.

Will Wright to do an IAmA on reddit by 2025 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-21; known on 2026-01-01.

C will get together with L by next new year. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.

V will visit the TNS lecture. ( 5% confidence )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-20; known on 2015-10-25; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-25.

Assuming that this environment is not a simulation, humanity will not observe strong evidence for the existence of a technological alien (i.e. independently evolved) civilization before the minimum of {end of 2055, implementation of superintelligence}. ( 86% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sh on 2015-07-20; known on 2056-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

Humanity to land on an asteroid before landing on Mars ( 32% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-20; known on 2090-01-01.

Humanity to land on Phobos before landing on Mars ( 14% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-20; known on 2090-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication attempt of a major finding in their research area. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RoryS on 2015-07-19; known on 2026-01-01.

Instagram to allow screenshots to be taken of computer/smartphone screenshots by 2020 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.

gyazo to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-19; known on 2021-01-01.

US bicycle mode share will be over 1% in the 2030 Census ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-19; known on 2032-01-01.

No new elementary particles to be discovered before December 20, 2016 ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.

No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2040. ( 86% confidence; 24 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-19; known on 2040-01-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

When my Kindle Voyage ( imported through US friends to avoid an Amazon shipping restriction ) arrives , all functionality including 3G will work here in Norway ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by silacoid on 2015-07-18; known on 2015-07-30; judged right by silacoid on 2015-07-21.

2020s to be warmer than the 2010s ( 83% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-18; known on 2031-01-01.

Godel Escher Bach will be available as a free online eBook by 2025 (in the way the Feynman lectures are) ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.

Volume of physical books sold in 2020 to be greater than that in 2015 ( 27% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.

Airbnb to be acquired by 2025 ( 34% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.

Number of web application developers to be higher in 2025 than 2015 ( 64% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2026-01-01.

Number of back-end developers to be higher in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.

Number of front-end developers to be higher in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-17; known on 2021-01-01.

US 2016 Presidential election to be Trump v. Sanders ( 5% confidence; 40 wagers; 18 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-17; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.

Under the current Conservative Party government: the UK will not leave the EU and the Human Rights Act will not be scrapped. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Nachlader on 2015-07-16; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by wizzwizz4 on 2020-05-18.

Samsung to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 65% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.

Sony to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.

Nintendo to be more valuable in 2025 than 2010 ( 35% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.

reocities (or some other backup of geocities websites as comprehensive as reocities) to last to 2030 ( 51% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2031-01-01.

25I-NBOMe to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2021-01-01.

George H.W. Bush to live beyond Gerald Ford's record lifespan ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by Josh Holland on 2018-01-31.

Sirocco the kakapo to die before 2030 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2031-01-01.

By 2030, there will be commercial and/or free applications/overlays that will present the user with lie/truth probabilities of a talking person – useful e.g. for politicians in TV debates. It could be video analysis, augmented reality overlays or somethin ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by silacoid on 2015-07-16; known on 2030-01-01.

At least one of the Voyagers to outlast the James Webb Space Telescope ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.

Clean up data at LIN next monday ( 90% confidence )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-16; known on 2015-07-21; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-20.

Finished and sent off BA by next Monday. ( 70% confidence )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-16; known on 2015-07-20; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-20.

2.0 or better in ComInG ( 80% confidence )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-16; known on 2015-08-16; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-23.

1.0 in ComInG ( 50% confidence )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-16; known on 2015-08-16; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-23.

Syriza will not be part of the majority coalition after the next Greek election. ( 44% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2015-07-15; known on 2019-01-20; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-09-24.

Rupert Murdoch will still lead Fox News after his 90th birthday ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by stepan on 2022-01-03.

Cascadia megathrust earthquake (of magnitude 8+) to hit Seattle before 2030 ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2031-01-01.

Minecraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.

nautil.us to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 50% confidence )