Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Recent Predictions
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Faster-than-light travel developed before 2050 ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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Time travel developed before 2050 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-21; known on 2050-01-01.
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I will complete my expense for the tax year in two weeks time ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-10-05; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-10-05.
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I will complete my expense for the tax year by the end of September ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-09-30; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-10-07.
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I will complete my expenses for the tax year before the end of October ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-10-31; judged right by taryneast on 2015-10-28.
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I will complete my next 30-day pushup challenge inside of 35 days ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-10-28.
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I will complete my next 30day pushup challenge inside the 30 allotted days ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-21; known on 2015-10-21; judged wrong by taryneast on 2015-10-20.
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Teleportation to be developed before 2050 ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-20; known on 2050-01-01.
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The Federal Reserve will not raise interest rates above 1% before the end of 2017 ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by waveman on 2015-09-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2018-01-01.
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Mouse, rat, rabbit, or other small mammal successfully revived from cryopreservation before 2050 ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-17; known on 2050-01-01.
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Fraction of U.S GDP devoted to computer and electronics hardware will be higher than 5%(from 1.5% now) by 2025 according to BEA data ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-09-17; known on 2025-01-24.
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BRICS will pass the USA's GDP at USD in current prices(nominal). ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-17; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-10-14.
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Google's refugee donation matching to hit ~$5m limit within the year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-17; known on 2016-09-17; judged right by themusicgod1 on 2016-09-17.
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Current Illinois governor Bruce Rauner will be found guilty of any illegal crime ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-17; known on 2025-01-01.
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150 000 km of National Highways by year end -Road Transport and Highways Minister Nitin Gadkari ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-06-25; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-19.
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2016 election to be Trump (Republican) v. non Hillary ( 12% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-07-29; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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On December 1st, 2016 I will have made more money on PredictIt than I spent. ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-16; known on 2016-12-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-10-25.
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If I discover a convenient way to test it, my polygenic risk score for schizophrenia will be above the population average (based on rare variant enrichment). ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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My top shared 5 F2 variants from the 1000 genome data will all be from people from Northern European countries. ( 90% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged right by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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I will get further medical testing (confirmatory genetic testing, or lab results) as a result of my WGS results. ( 20% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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My subjectively objective risk for one or more cancer types will triple as a result of analyzing my WGS results over the next 4 months. ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-16; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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I will spend >30 hours of non-class time analyzing my personal WGS data over the next four months. ( 33% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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I will regret having my whole genome sequenced in 4 months (self-report). ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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My WGS results will inspire me to develop a new habit in the next 4 months, either via a new SR habit flashcard or a new lifestats column. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15; judged wrong by Porejide on 2017-09-19.
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There will be a greater than 97.5% concordance btwn my WGS data and 23&me SNP calls. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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More than 13% of the loss of function genes in my WGS data will be related to chemosensation. ( 66% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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I will have >100 loss of function variants in my WGS data. (https://www.sciencemag.org/content/335/6070/823) ( 55% confidence )
Created by Porejide on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-01-15.
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Alcor's membership will be 11% or more greater in 2016 than 2015 ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-15; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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1 000 million tons of cement production by 2025. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2026-01-01.
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Asia-Pacific surpassed North America with the largest HNWI population (4.69 million versus 4.68 million) and is expected to overtake North America's leading $16.2 trillion in HNWI wealth by the end of the year. Asia-Pacific Wealth Report 2015 (APWR) ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-12-26; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-22.
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Bharat will pass the USA in steel production in 2015(full calendar year). In 2014 USA was ahead. Steel is an excellent proxy for GDP growth, along with cement and electricity. Data Source: World Steel Association. ( 87% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2016-03-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-25.
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Due to Bharat's industrialization prices will boom in an exact replay of what happened in 2001-11 commodity bull market driven by Zhongguo. Commodities prices, as measured by the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI), will rise at least 275% since the start ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2026-12-31.
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Bharatnet is the world’s largest rural broadband connectivity project. 600 million rural citizens of Bharat will be linked across 250 000 Gram Panchayats(village) through optical fibre. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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The 2015 budget has 60 GW of wind power by 2022. Bharat will then place 2nd in the world from 5th. Source: Global Wind Energy Council http://www.gwec.net/ ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2022-12-25.
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Bharat will reach 1.4 billion mobile connections by 2020, when mobile penetration will reach 100 per cent. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2020-12-25.
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Non-Liberal Prime Minister after the next Australian Federal Election ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-14; known on 2016-11-25; judged wrong by waveman on 2016-07-16.
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Red Peak Flag to be included in first NZ flag referendum ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-14; known on 2015-12-10; judged right by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-24.
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Bharat will pass the USA and EU in electricity production by 2029. 2nd largest oil importer in 2020. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-14; known on 2029-12-31.
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Bharat will export USD $1 trillion worth of merchandise in 2020. ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-14; known on 2020-01-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-14.
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Jace, Vryn's Prodigy will be worth at least $50 by the end of 2016. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bshih on 2015-09-14; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by bshih on 2017-01-01.
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Hangarback Walker will be worth at least $20 by end of 2016. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by bshih on 2015-09-14; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by bshih on 2017-01-01.
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Donald Trump will lose the New Hampshire primary. ( 56% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by KBVMD on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-02-09; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2016-02-10.
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Donald Trump will lose the Iowa caucuses. ( 61% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by KBVMD on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-02-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-02-02.
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John McDonnell to be the next UK Shadow Chancellor of the Exchequer. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2015-09-13; known on 2015-09-23; judged right by splorridge on 2015-09-13.
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Jeremy Corbyn will remain leader of the Labour party until the next general election ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2015-09-13; known on 2020-05-07; judged right by splorridge on 2017-06-14.
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In the Republican primary Kasich to win Ohio, New Hampshire and at least one other state ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-05-15; judged wrong by HonoreDB on 2016-03-02.
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Bharat will be the world's second largest producer and consumer of steel in 2016(from 4th in 2014).Production 140 MT and consumption 104MT. ( 91% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-13; known on 2016-12-25.
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Ministry of New and Renewable Energy (MNRE) of Bharat has released a year-by-year breakdown of solar capacity targets by states to reach its overall 100 GW solar capacity target by 2022. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-13; known on 2022-12-25.
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One of the five BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) will experience a revolution, civil war, secession or major social unrest until 2025. ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Julius on 2015-09-13; known on 2025-12-31; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15.
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CNC Mills designed specifically for the manufacture of ghost guns (such as ghost gunner which is designed for easy AR-15 manufacturing) will be illegal (or effectively banned) in the U.S. by 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2015-09-12; known on 2020-01-01.
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Nicole Arbour will make a public apology for Dear Fat People in the next 6 weeks. ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-09-12; known on 2015-10-24; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2015-10-24.
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Price for Air NZ to Nadi departing Auckland 31 December to not increase overnight between 12 and 13 Sep 2015 (currently on $498 NZD as per Webjet) ( 65% confidence )
Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-11; known on 2015-09-11; judged right by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-11.
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Price for Fiji Airlines to Nadi departing Auckland 31 December to not increase overnight between 12 and 13 Sep 2015 (currently on $544 NZD as per Webjet) ( 65% confidence )
Created by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-11; known on 2015-09-11; judged wrong by Caleb Withers on 2015-09-11.
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Obamacare will survive, but might get changed around the edges by court challenges. ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by stephen on 2015-09-11; known on 2015-09-11.
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After the next Australian federal election, a member of the Labor party will be sworn in as Prime Minister. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-11; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2017-02-01.
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The BRICS will pass the G7 in percentage of world GDP in 2016. Data source will be the IMF. As of 2015: 31.86% G7 vs BRICS 30.58%. ( 34% confidence; 8 wagers; 22 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-12-25; judged right by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-07-06.
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The BRICS share will pass the combined US + EU in percentage of world GDP in 2019. ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-11; known on 2019-12-25; judged unknown by sebbit on 2019-12-05.
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Hillary Clinton will be the 2016 Democratic nominee for US President. ( 81% confidence; 39 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by m2bn on 2015-09-11; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.
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By the end of 2015, Madplatypus will self-identify as one of the following: Buddhist, fascist, or anti-natalist. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Madplatypus on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Madplatypus on 2016-01-01.
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Any of Denmark, Finland, Germany, Luxembourg, Norway or Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Luxembourg defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 14 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Germany defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Finland defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 19 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Denmark defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Norway defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 22 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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Sweden defaults its sovereign debt in 2015. ( 0% confidence; 21 wagers )
Created by kuudes on 2015-09-10; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2016-01-01.
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BRIC will rank in the top 5 of military spenders by 2030. Zhongguo 2,Bharat 3,Rossiya 4,Brasil 5 This in USD at current prices. Data source is Stockholm International Peace Research Institute. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2031-01-01.
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By 2019, for the first time in history, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (Nato) will not account for a majority of worldwide defence expenditure. It accounted for almost two-thirds of global spending as recently as 2010,” said IHS. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2019-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2019-12-28.
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Universal Secondary Education by 2017 for Bharat.Gross Enrolment Ratio, which is at 78.51% will be at least 97%. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2017-12-27; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Bharat will cut under 5 mortality rate to 25 deaths or fewer per 1000 live births in 15 years. Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2030-12-31.
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Google to replace Intel as the next sponsor of the Intel Science Talent Search. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-09; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.
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Universal literacy worldwide by 2040 for 15-24 year olds. ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-09; known on 2040-12-31.
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Bharat to be third-biggest defence spender by 2020 -IHS Defence Budgets Annual Report ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-08; known on 2020-12-25.
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By January 1, 2056, under the assumptions that PH not collapse to finite level, PH != PSPACE, and PSPACE != EXP, UGC, ETH , GI is not in BQP, factoring is not in P, and NC != P, proven that ZPP in Beta_P^{Ring iso, MSCP}. ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-07; known on 2056-01-01.
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I will have submitted two or more papers to academic journals by 2017-01-01 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-01-01.
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A heat engine which beats the Carnot efficiency will be developed before 2050 ( 4% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2050-01-01.
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I will change careers into some kind of software development job by Winter 2017 ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Idrinkitup on 2018-01-19.
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I will get married at age 35, +/- 2 years. I'll be 35 in 2022. So I'll know in 2024. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-09-07; known on 2024-04-09.
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The Arctic Ocean will be ice-free before 2073 ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-07; known on 2073-01-01.
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I will move to Spain between April and September 2016. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Idrinkitup on 2015-09-07; known on 2016-09-25; judged wrong by Idrinkitup on 2016-09-25.
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In five years, we will carry one device instead of many (phone, tablet, laptop), with various external inputs based on need (keyboard, mouse) & outputs (big screen, projector). ( 31% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Legioona on 2015-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-08.
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From today until January 1st, 2017 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by kuudes on 2017-01-01.
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From today until January 1st, 2023 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2022 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 19% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2021 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 26% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2020 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2019 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2019-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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From today until January 1st, 2018 Gangnam Style will remain the world's most viewed YouTube video. ( 43% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2015-09-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-07-12.
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6th edition of Dungeons and Dragons to come out by January 1, 2030. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-06; known on 2030-01-01.
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At least one episode of Season 3 of RWBY will come out before January 30, 2016 ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-05; known on 2016-01-30; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-30.
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US energy consumption per capita will be above 400 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-05; known on 2051-01-01.
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The Liberal party will win the Canning by-election. ( 75% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-05; known on 2015-09-20; judged right by kuudes on 2015-09-19.
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New Zealand will vote to change its flag in the 2016 referendum. ( 32% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by danielfilan on 2015-09-05; known on 2016-03-25; judged wrong by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-24.
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Bernie Sanders is the next US President elect ( 12% confidence; 30 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by jesselevine on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-12-01; judged wrong by Afforess on 2016-10-06.
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US energy consumption per capita will be below 250 Million Btu at any time from 2016 through 2050 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-03; known on 2051-01-01.
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Construction will start on replacements for the North River Tunnels by 2030 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by btrettel on 2015-09-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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I will perform at least 1 set of 100 push ups and 1 set of 20 pulls up before 2016. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-01-03.
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I will perform at least 1 set of 100 push ups before 2016. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-01-03.
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I will perform at least 1 set of 20 pull ups before 2016. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-09-03; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2016-01-03.
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I will complete my 30day push-up challenge in the next 15 days (I have 15 days left) ( 80% confidence )
Created by taryneast on 2015-09-03; known on 2015-09-18; judged right by taryneast on 2015-09-18.