PredictionBook: Recent Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

Air pollution, pesticides, and/or EMF will be found responsible for the apparent rise in neurological diseases among the elderly ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2065-01-02.

Global mass unemployment due to automation will cause large scale civil unrest that threatens global stability before 2100. ( 33% confidence; 8 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by silacoid on 2015-08-16; known on 2100-01-01.

Epic Systems will be the predominant source of EMRs by 2020 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-16; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-18.

We will be able to robustly search audio files by text by 2025 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-16; known on 2026-01-01.

I'll finish Halmos Naive Set Theory by Aug 31 ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-15; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-09-02.

Of the total-coloring conjecture, list coloring conjecture, the EFL conjecture, and the Hardwiger conjecture, by Jan 1, 2042, either a triplet of them shown to imply the other, or one of them shown to be undecidable. ( 52% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-15; known on 2042-01-01.

By 2042, solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel based alternatives do. ( 53% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-15; known on 2042-01-01.

By 2025, “solar energy will cost half or less of what fossil-fuel-based alternatives do” – Vivek Wadhwa ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-15; known on 2025-01-01.

This prediction won't have a confidence rate between any interval of length 10 I predict in this prediction within 15 days. Let's say for example 45-55 ( 95% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by damaru on 2015-08-15; known on 2015-08-30; judged right by supinf on 2015-09-26.

This prediction won't have a confidence rate between any interval of length 10 I predict in this prediction within 15 days. Let's say for example 85-95 ( 100% confidence )

Created by damaru on 2015-08-15; known on 2015-08-30.

Rosa Parks will be on the new 10 dollar bill. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-07-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-04-21.

Eleanor Roosevelt will be on the new 10 dollar bill. ( 18% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-07-02; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2016-04-21.

Mo-Pac express lanes will not be completed and accepting traffic before January 20th, 2016. ( 98% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-01-20; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2016-01-20.

The Interactive portion of SXSW 2016 will see fewer than 35,000 attendees. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-15; known on 2016-04-01; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-29.

My Facebook Page [https://www.facebook.com/ltasbblog] will have 300+ Likes by the end of September. ( 30% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by dvdddg on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-30; judged wrong by unexpectedEOF on 2015-10-01.

I will keep making a prediction a day until Aug 31 ( 46% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Nikolas on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Nikolas on 2015-08-19.

I will have moved into my new flat on time. ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Josh Holland on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Josh Holland on 2015-08-30.

Microsoft will release the source code to the current version of Windows under a free-software license. ( 14% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by quanticle on 2015-08-14; known on 2025-08-15.

NYSE:BG will drop below $73.00 at any point by September 15, 2015 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Dapple on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-09-15; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2015-08-20.

I will get at least one job offer. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-14; known on 2015-08-28; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-18.

The level of Austin, TX's Lake Travis will slip below 665.0 feet by the end of 2015. ( 50% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-13; known on 2016-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2015-10-24.

I will get a job offer from GoDaddy. ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-13; known on 2015-08-29; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-28.

“By 2020, solar energy will be price-competitive with energy generated from fossil fuels on an unsubsidized basis in most parts of the world.” – Vivek Wadhwa ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-13; known on 2021-01-01.

The average winning bid for the 2016 NYC Individual Accessible taxi medallion auction will be below $700,000. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-08-13; known on 2016-05-16.

More than 25% of durable consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2050 ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-12; known on 2051-01-02.

More than 25% of consumer goods will be 3D printed during 2025 ( 5% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-12; known on 2026-01-01.

I successfully arbitrage PredictIt with >10% pre-tax ROI at the end of the Republican National Convention ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Dapple on 2015-08-12; known on 2016-07-21; judged right by Dapple on 2016-07-13.

Vandiver conjecture to not be resolved before January 1, 2017. ( 94% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-01.

I will buy another book written by Brandon Sanderson before next March. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2016-03-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-03-01.

NTRU found to be fundamentally vulnerable to quantum computer based attacks by January 1, 2042. ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2042-01-01.

Magic to return on a large scale (like in Shadowrun) by January 1, 2035. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2035-01-01.

New Mersenne prime discovered by January 1, 2030. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2030-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-20.

New Mersenne prime discovered by January 1, 2035. ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2035-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-20.

In the next month, Bernie Sanders will have another public appearance disrupted by BLM activists. ( 18% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-12; known on 2015-09-12; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2015-09-17.

I won't get hit by a bus today. ( 99% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-12; known on 2015-08-13; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2015-08-13.

Conditional on PredictIt still being around by January 1, 2017 I will have doubled my initial set of money on PredictIt by that date. ( 42% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-11; known on 2017-01-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2017-01-02.

By 2025, the half-life of a career will decrease to 5 years ( 20% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-11; known on 2026-01-01.

I will get a job offer from Tuft and Needle. ( 55% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-10; known on 2015-08-25; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-21.

I will get a job offer from Le Tote. ( 47% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-10; known on 2015-08-25; judged right by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-08-18.

I will pass comps. ( 85% confidence )

Created by spicedpiano on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-09-20.

A258107 to be proven to be finite by January 1, 2045. ( 44% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2045-01-01.

Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 10 photons to be performed by January 1, 2020. ( 35% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2020-01-01.

Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 10 photons to be performed by January 1, 2026. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2026-01-01.

Clinton to be Democratic nominee ( 84% confidence; 13 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-07-29; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-27.

Donald Trump to be the next elected President of the United Stated. ( 21% confidence; 53 wagers; 18 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2016-11-12; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2016-11-09.

Indonesia will be ranked 8 on the IMF's GDP at current prices ranking of the world's largest economies, as they already are at PPP valuation. The UK and France will be forced down to No 9 and 10. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-10; known on 2025-12-31.

Brasil will be ranked 7 on the IMF's GDP at current prices ranking of the world's largest economies, as they already are at PPP valuation. The UK and France will be forced down to No 9 and 10. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-10; known on 2025-12-31.

Rossiya will be ranked 6 on the IMF's GDP at current prices ranking of the world's largest economies, as they already are at PPP valuation. The UK and France will be forced down to No 9 and 10. Relative ranking of UK and France is unspecified. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-10; known on 2025-12-31.

Uber's valuation to be less than half that of its 2015 valuation by 2022 ( 30% confidence; 7 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-09; known on 2023-01-01.

Zendikar fetchlands reprinted in Commander 2015 ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by TheSkeward on 2015-08-07; known on 2015-11-13; judged right by pjg5172 on 2015-11-09.

India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2025 ( 62% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-01-01.

India to have its own manned space flight by January 1, 2018. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-07; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2018-01-01.

Trump will either win the Republican nomination or run as an Independent. ( 53% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Makhura47 on 2015-08-07; known on 2016-09-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2016-07-20.

Universal basic income will be adopted in at least 50% of the G20 countries within 10 years ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by sflicht on 2015-08-07; known on 2025-08-08.

Ash vs Evil Dead will run 2 or more seasons ( 70% confidence )

Created by silacoid on 2015-08-06; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by silacoid on 2015-10-31.

I will not use any cord on the hiking trip. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-06; known on 2015-08-22; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-18.

Apple's valuation in 2025 to be less than half that of its valuation in 2015 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2026-01-01.

MARC train service will not stop running on 2016-01-02 due to lack of positive train control ( 75% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-06; known on 2016-01-03; judged right by btrettel on 2016-01-03.

Finish Superintelligence today. ( 98% confidence )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-06; known on 2015-08-07; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-06.

WIndows 10 installation will succeed on next try. ( 35% confidence )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-06; known on 2015-08-07; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-06.

will meet L when I'm back ( 65% confidence )

Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-08-06; known on 2015-09-01; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2015-10-07.

Genetic engineering to produce someone with an IQ over 200 by 2060 ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2061-01-01.

Dire Wolves to be resurrected by 2100 ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.

Cave Bear to be resurrected by 2100 ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.

Woolly Mammoth to be resurrected by 2100 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-06; known on 2100-01-01.

No human revived from cryonic suspension by 2100. ( 70% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-05; known on 2100-01-01.

SENS Foundation to reach a budget of 10 million dollars a year by 2020 (https://www.reddit.com/r/Futurology/comments/3fri9a/ask_aubrey_de_grey_anything/ctrjwxm ) ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-05; known on 2021-01-01.

Vamos ter uma v0 do dash até começo de dezembro ( 60% confidence )

Created by juliomarcos on 2015-08-05; known on 2015-12-01.

World of Warcraft will be shut dow before 2023 ( 28% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by silacoid on 2015-08-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by drakino on 2023-01-01.

Oil will account for a lower raw amount of energy consumption in 2030 than in 2020 ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2031-01-01.

By 2040, people will be able to eat as much as they'd like without getting fat ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.

We will still need human translators for serious translation work by 2040 ( 52% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.

HIV will be eradicated by 2040 (Daniel Lemire) ( 56% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.

By 2040, top athletes in their 50s will match the performance of athletes decades younger using advanced medicine (Daniel Lemire). ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-04; known on 2041-01-01.

Greater than 70% of cars bought in 2020 will be electric ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by btrettel on 2020-07-05.

Humans will be sent to Mars ( 59% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2035-10-16.

A true general intelligence AI will be created ( 92% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2080-10-16.

The conservatives will win the next general election in the UK ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by espore on 2015-08-02; known on 2020-08-04; judged right by HonoreDB on 2018-01-04.

At least 25% of all total meals in the world will be prepared by robot chefs by 2025 ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-02; known on 2026-01-01.

github.com will be hacked on a large scale (more than a few user accounts) before 2025-01-01 ( 70% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-02; known on 2025-01-01.

In which university will you do your bachelor's? Harvard, MIT, or UPenn ( 90% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by Hussain on 2015-08-02; known on 2016-08-16.

The Revenant I just passed will table in my Magic Origins draft. ( 55% confidence )

Created by aarongertler on 2015-08-01; known on 2015-08-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2015-08-01.

Made-for-delivery restaurants like Sprig will account for at least 10% of restaurant purchases by 2025 (https://www.quora.com/What-is-the-future-of-food-delivery-1/answer/Adam-DAngelo) ( 39% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-01; known on 2026-01-01.

I will visit the top of the Rockefeller Center tonight ( 75% confidence )

Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-31; known on 2015-08-01; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-08-14.

There will NOT be a “World War III” within the next 10 years. (Between Russia and it's “allies” and NATO and/or western europe) ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Snorkelfarsan on 2015-07-31; known on 2025-07-01.

WWIII starts before 2030. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Dak on 2015-07-31; known on 2030-07-01; judged unknown by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-03.

The rationality workshop planned for September will work out. ( 30% confidence )

Created by Nikolas on 2015-07-30; known on 2015-10-16; judged right by Nikolas on 2015-09-14.

I will finish the Couch to 5K program inside of the next 3 weeks (given I'm now about to begin week 7 again, and I have family arriving in two weeks) ( 80% confidence )

Created by taryneast on 2015-07-30; known on 2015-08-20; judged right by taryneast on 2015-08-15.

uBeam will not (within 5 years) ship a wireless charging product that transmits more than 5W to a portable receiver. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by James Babcock on 2015-07-30; known on 2020-07-16; judged right by arrowinthedark on 2020-09-09.

North Korea and South Korea to unify by 2030 ( 19% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.

“China will be 1/3rd desert before the 2030s and running out of water in many places” – Alex Lightman ( 55% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.

US will ally with Iran by 2030 – Alex Lightman ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.

At least one financial collapse will happen to the US in the 2020s ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.

Cuba to become the fastest growing world economy during the 2020s – Alex Lightman ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01; judged unknown by InquilineKea on 2015-08-03.

Social Security in US to still exist by 2050 ( 65% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2051-01-01; judged unknown by David on 2015-08-01.

Effective US Federal Funds Rate will stay below 0.25% at least until 2016 ( 75% confidence )

Created by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-07-29; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by ArturoGoosnargh on 2015-12-25.

Dodger will not move out f GHTT ( 80% confidence )

Created by brian1314 on 2015-07-29; known on 2015-08-07.

The US Congress will override the Iran nuclear deal. ( 16% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-29; known on 2015-10-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2015-10-01.

Congress will reauthorize the Export-Import Bank by the end of August. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2015-07-28; known on 2015-09-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2020-10-08.

“Some p2p cryptocurrency is going to become THE world reserve currency this decade” – Jacob Cannell ( 24% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-28; known on 2021-01-01.

Statistics

Recent Predictions