no reports using hashtag #NotInMyTbay after 6 months for at least one week. ( 65% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-30; known on 2018-01-05.

I will not be able to sell on market referenced in claim 177878 ( 92% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-12; known on 2018-01-02.

By 2017-12-31 Sun: I do a workout in which I measure my mass and in which I do five deadlift reps of [205kg or 2.25x my body mass, whichever is the greater] raw. ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by KnaveOfAllTrades on 2017-03-05; known on 2018-01-02.

By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: Squat ATG 5×5 @ 1.75x bodyweight (measured immediately before the first set). Yes chalk, any shoes, no belt, no straps. ( 55% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.

Total LessWrong Google Analytics Sessions for 2017 will be higher than for 2016 ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2017-01-26; known on 2018-01-01.

Construction & housing in the heart of “Grand Paris” project starts by 2017 ( 51% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-11; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: conditional on there being any live-action, it will be in 4.0. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 is not a conventional Eva, and has already been seen in 1.0 or 2.0 ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03 and will be two separate units linked to one pilot ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be created from the wreckage of Eva 02 and Eva 03 ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Rei ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be Lilith ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will see combat but be quickly destroyed ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be destroyed or scrapped or reused before any combat ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will not be shown in 4.0 ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by a Magi ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 07 will be piloted by Mana from Girlfriend of Steel ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 06 is Adam ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 05 was Tunniel ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 01 will be upgraded to/redesignated Eva 08 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will related to the capture of NERV and extraction of Shinji ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be Lilith (shrunken) and not Eva-01 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be used against NERV ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Eva 08 will be piloted by Asuka ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: The MP Evas will appear in 3.0 or 4.0 ( 70% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is really working for a NERV branch ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group which is opposed to just SEELE's plans & has links to Gendo ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for herself/an otherwise unknown conspiracy/group ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE & is the head of SEELE ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is working for SEELE ( 25% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is the daughter of Asuka & Shinji from an 'original' EoE-verse ( 3% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is a angel/human hybrid ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is an animal/human hybrid ( 4% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is a clone of Naoko Akagi ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari is a straight metaphysically normal human and nothing else ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Mari marked for death by SEELE at some point ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Shinji is a full Angel a la Re-Take (not a human-angel hybrid) ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over and Shinji is forced to kill her ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid and the angel infection takes her over ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is now a human/angel hybrid ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka will be employed by SEELE against NERV or Shinji ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka vs. Shinji death-fight ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka Shikinami is a clone of another Asuka and Shikinami is then disposed of ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: The key of Nebuchadnezzar is a seed of life & the original Adam reduced to embryonic form (akin to NGE TV) ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: The 4 pilots (Shinji, Asuka, Mari, Rei) each have a piece of Adam's soul in addition to their own, with Kaworu having the main piece ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: The Final Angel is EoE-Shogoki (and not Kaworu) ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: The Key of Nebuchadnezzar is neither a Lance nor Seed of Life, but a literal key which activates some piece of FAR technology ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: The coffins on the moon each contain or contained an Angel. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: There are precisely 4 white/black moons, 1 for each FAR depicted in flashbacks to 2I ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: There are more than 2 white/black moons involved ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.