This sore throat I’ve had for 5 days won’t turn into anything worse ( 95% confidence )

Created by msonaeiou on 2020-05-25; known on 2020-06-01.

Lockheed Martin claims up to 3500 F-35 will be ordered. A look at the price and the previous track record of the F-22 instead leads to a certainty that all orders combined will be lucky to hit 940. That is 1/4 of LM claims. ( 52% confidence; 3 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-21; known on 2020-05-23.

Morocco will require people to wears mask 2 weeks following the end of quarantine ( 60% confidence )

Created by kvfi on 2020-05-05; known on 2020-05-20.

I will graduate medical school ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by nelson.horsley@gmail.com on 2016-09-18; known on 2020-05-16.

The Masked Singer season 3 Kangaroo is Iggy Izalia ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ianharrison on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-05-15.

Michael F. Roman will be fired as ceo of 3M ( 30% confidence )

Created by Rsfinley23 on 2020-04-04; known on 2020-05-15.

The Masked Singer season 3 Turtle is Nick Jonas ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ianharrison on 2020-03-08; known on 2020-05-15.

Indian stock market crashes before 2020 ( 60% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by jp870 on 2018-05-10; known on 2020-05-12.

At least one Sask Party MLA elected in 2016 put in jail ( 58% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-06; known on 2020-04-20.

Army corps of engineers will build additional hospitals/testing around NYC/NJ ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by daveisright on 2020-03-17; known on 2020-04-03.

EU to succeed in its target of cutting greenhouse gas levels to 20% of 1990 levels by 2020. ( 66% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2020-02-01.

2019 EU passes regulations requiring labeling of DRM-encumbered products. ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-10; known on 2020-01-21.

Data published by Cisco in 2018 or 2019 about total volume of IP traffic per month in 2018 will show an amount more than 10% higher than their prediction of 151 EB. ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-04; known on 2020-01-02.

<i>To the Stars</i>: Homura will achieve peace when Madoka manages to manifest in reality. ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by linkhyrule5 on 2013-07-27; known on 2020-01-01.

Domestic per capita water use in California will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 30% confidence )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-23; known on 2020-01-01.

California irrigation application rate (acre-feet of water per acre of land) will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-20; known on 2020-01-01.

Texas irrigation application rate (acre-feet of water per acre of land) will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-20; known on 2020-01-01.

Domestic per capita water use in Texas will increase from 2010 to 2015 as reported by the USGS ( 30% confidence )

Created by btrettel on 2015-05-23; known on 2020-01-01.

PP will defeat Hbox in 2019 ( 100% confidence )

Created by fairfax on 2019-02-07; known on 2020-01-01.

uniforms aside, I will not wear sweatpants more than half the days in 2019 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-06-03; known on 2020-01-01.

Another smash ballot will be announced by the end of 2019. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-16; known on 2020-01-01.

[Star Trek: Disco] Bhe havirefr'f Ybepn vf erirnyrq gb or nyvir. ( 40% confidence )

Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2020-01-01.

[Star Trek: Disco] Ng yrnfg bar perjzrzore bs zveebe qvfpbirel vf erirnyrq gb or nyvir va bhe havirefr. ( 80% confidence )

Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2020-01-01.

[Star Trek: Disco] Ybepn'f fbhy fheivirf jvguva gur argjbex. ( 65% confidence )

Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2020-01-01.

[Star Trek: Disco] Nfvqr sebz gur zlpryvny argjbex, gur grpu orvat zber nqinaprq guna va gur bevtvany frevrf vf arire rkcynvarq. ( 70% confidence )

Created by HonoreDB on 2018-02-05; known on 2020-01-01.

The tentative announcement of possible technological civilizations outside our solar system will precede widely-accepted confirmation of extraterrestrial life within our own solar system. (based on announcements in peer-reviewed jounals) ( 23% confidence; 5 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-05-25; known on 2020-01-01.

Prediction: Soon after the bitcoin-classic fork succeeds, layoffs will start at BlockStream. ( 4% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-17; known on 2020-01-01.

“That by 2020 a wearable device will be available that will use voice recognition capability and high-volume storage to monitor and index conversations you have or conversations which occur in your vicinity for later searching as supplemental memory.” ( 85% confidence; 10 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2020-01-01.

CNC Mills designed specifically for the manufacture of ghost guns (such as ghost gunner which is designed for easy AR-15 manufacturing) will be illegal (or effectively banned) in the U.S. by 2020 ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by prophetofprofit on 2015-09-12; known on 2020-01-01.

>0 serotonergic drugs withdrawn from US market, OR loses >0 of its FDA approved indication (before 2020) ( 18% confidence )

Created by jesselevine on 2016-03-08; known on 2020-01-01.

The first functional, 3D printed television/monitor screen will be demonstrated by 2020. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-01-30; known on 2020-01-01.

[The number of impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 claimed by 80,000 Hours will be at least] 1,500 ( 66% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

[The number of impact-adjusted plan changes in 2017 claimed by 80,000 Hours will be at least] 2,400 ( 33% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

S&P 500 will close the year read ( 85% confidence )

Created by checkpooh on 2019-05-26; known on 2020-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its December 2016 grant to Impact Justice for its Restorative Justice Project a cost-effective success on 2018-01-01 ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2022 ( 89% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01.

[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2023 ( 84% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01.

[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2024 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01.

[Alex Honnold will be alive on] January 1st, 2025 ( 82% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2019-03-15; known on 2020-01-01.

80,000 Hours hires at least two staff members in 2017 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

On 2018-01-01, Nick Beckstead believes that cause prioritization working groups at universities are a cost-effective way of identifying new talent in the EA community (cond. on there being at least 3 such working groups, which he thinks is likely) ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

On 2018-01-01, Open Philanthropy Research Analyst Ajeya Cotra thinks CEA’s support of EA student groups has improved since September 2016 (conditional on Ajeya feeling she has enough evidence to make such a judgment) ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2020-01-01.

Hungrybox will not a drop a set in Melee in 2019 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by wheat on 2019-03-08; known on 2020-01-01.

US homicide rate to be lower in 2019 than 2018 ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Cato on 2019-03-05; known on 2020-01-01.

“sites like intrade gain prestige in the next decade” ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-25; known on 2020-01-01.

Personal – I will still be employed by my current employer at the end of 2019 ( 94% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.

Personal – I will be able to complete one unassisted pull-up at least once in 2019 ( 80% confidence )

Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.

Personal – I will squat 150lbs at least once in 2019 ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.

Personal – I will bench press 100lbs at least once in 2019 ( 90% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Selentelechia on 2019-01-16; known on 2020-01-01.