NGE Rebuild: The coffins on the moon each contain or contained an Angel. ( 95% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: There are precisely 4 white/black moons, 1 for each FAR depicted in flashbacks to 2I ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: There are more than 2 white/black moons involved ( 45% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: At some point in the last 2 movies Mari will appear in EoE-Asuka-style eye/arm bandages ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild is an alternate universe(s) to NGE TV or EoE, but each universe is causally connected (by Kaworu or Shinji or another character) ( 5% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: There will be a fifth movie (an animation >40min) after 4.0. ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Anno will return to employment at Gainax and also to the Gainax board of directors after Rebuild. ( 25% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Hideaki Anno will return to employment at Gainax after Rebuild. ( 30% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Studio Khara will be dissolved or substantially cease operations after completing Rebuild. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood when Shinji met some form of Adam/Kaworu, accidentally causing Second Impact ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-14; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood and his comment about happiness refers to being unable to comfort Shinji after Yui died ( 45% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-14; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Kaworu knew Shinji during childhood ( 70% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-14; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild Kaworu's body is derived in some fashion from Misato (such as DNA) ( 10% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-14; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild Lorenz Keel is the Pope ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild Asuka Shikinami is a clone of another Asuka ( 40% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild Asuka is (was) a genetically modified human ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild Asuka is a test-tube baby, similar to the manga backstory ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-09; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: The First Ancestral Race will be mentioned by name in Rebuild. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: 3.0 or 4.0 will deconstruct Shinji's heroism in 2.0 and reveal it to be a sham a la Norman Spinrad's The Iron Dream ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild is an alternate universe(s) to NGE TV or EoE, possibly in the Everett multiverse sense ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to itself (time-loop) ( 10% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to EoTV ( 1% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to EoE ( 1% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild is a sequel to a previous NGE work ( 2% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE of Asuka ( 1% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE of Shinji ( 2% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild is a dream/possible-world during EoE ( 3% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Rei or Kaworu ( 0% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Misato ( 0% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Asuka while sedated ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV by Asuka while being mind-raped ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Rebuild is a dream during NGE TV ( 2% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: Sadamoto's Eva manga will conclude with substantially the same ending as Rebuild ( 26% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Rei will destroy the other Rei clones ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka's surname's change to Shikinami will receive an in-universe explanation and will pertain to Second Impact/the four FARs in Misato's 2.0 flashback ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Asuka's surname's change to Shikinami will receive no in-universe explanation. ( 35% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-07; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Kaji will die after Armisael ( 50% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Gendo's ultimate goal in 4.0 will not be to reunite with Yui, but to turn her into a god-like entity ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: Yui will separate from Eva-01 and be physically human at some point ( 15% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE Rebuild: “Arael attacks the sequestered NERV personnel with a wide beam, providing for a mindfuckery exposition scene featuring the other adults finally.” ( 5% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-10-04; known on 2018-01-01.

NGE: There will be live-action at some point in Rebuild. ( 40% confidence )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-04; known on 2018-01-01.

Fundamental Change to Debian Release Structure: No Longer Offers Both Stable & Testing Releases ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-20; known on 2018-01-01.

On Jan 1, 2017 there will be at most 3871377.25 bitcoin in addresses that have not been dormant for over a year ( 33% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-03; known on 2018-01-01.

More and better quality medical research happens in 2016 vs. 2015 ( 90% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-03-02; known on 2018-01-01.

By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 55.0kg (121.25lb). ( 18% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.

By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 60.0kg (132.28lb). ( 31% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.

By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 62.5kg (137.79lb). ( 47% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.

By or on 2017-12-31 Sun: At any point, on any credible (judged by me) scales, my mass is <= 65.0kg (143.3lb). ( 54% confidence )

Created by KnaveOfAllTradesDrunk on 2017-06-11; known on 2018-01-01.

i am still alive ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-30; known on 2018-01-01.

nasdaq composite <= 3800 at any point in 2017 ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-15; known on 2018-01-01.