Michael Jackson is still alive and hiding at Neverland.

Created by sharidanbowman on 2010-02-10; known on 2012-06-24; judged wrong by Emanuel Rylke on 2012-06-24.

  • sharidanbowman estimated 35% on 2010-02-10
  • cointelligence estimated 60% and said “they didn’t bury the monkeyon 2010-02-28
  • Danni estimated 20% on 2010-03-17
  • gwern estimated 98% and said “conspiracy=Jacksons doing their damndest to prevent prosecution of doctor, because there would be autopsy, and MJ had a ‘unique’ medical history.on 2010-07-29
  • Pavitra estimated 1% on 2010-08-03
  • Jennifer estimated 0% and said “P(alive)=0.11 but detected before deadline? P(revealed before deadline|alive)=0.12 but hiding specifically at Neverland? Too many details!on 2010-09-29
  • kallman estimated 0% and said “Too crazy. Him and elvis haning out on mars. Woo.on 2010-11-23
  • JoshuaZ estimated 1% on 2011-01-01
  • Larks estimated 0% and said “Obveously, I mean <0.5%on 2011-01-01
  • bobpage estimated 0% on 2011-01-21
  • JoshuaZ said “Gwern, did you mean 98% here and not 98% against? on 2011-07-07
  • gwern estimated 2% and said “yeson 2011-07-07
  • JoshuaZ estimated 0% and said “Updating to just zero outright. Really tiny. on 2011-11-17
  • Grognor estimated 0% on 2011-12-06
  • Emanuel Rylke estimated 0% on 2012-04-26
  • chemotaxis101 estimated 0% on 2012-06-02
  • davidiach estimated 0% on 2012-06-06
  • Jayson Virissimo estimated 0% on 2012-06-11
  • Michael Stevens estimated 1% on 2012-06-11
  • Emanuel Rylke  judged this prediction wrong on 2012-06-24.

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