Upcoming Predictions
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Kanye West will win the presidency in 2024 or 2028 ( 0% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sty.silver on 2020-11-24; known on 2029-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project considers its December 2016 grant to Harvard University's Solar Geoengineering Research Program a success on 2027-01-01 ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2029-01-01.
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The largest operating system/platform by marketshare will be recognizable as being built off of Curtis Yarvin's ideas ( 5% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2029-01-01.
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The largest operating system/platform by marketshare will have been completely built from first principles by DeepMind/AGI, not building on existing OS before 2017 ( 44% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-03; known on 2029-01-01.
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'The International Space Station is decommissioned' by 2029 ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2029-01-01.
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Biden will resign sometime during the presidency conditional on him winning the election ( 10% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-21; known on 2029-01-01.
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Half of more than 4,000 universities in the U.S. (that existed in 2013) to be in bankruptcy by 2028 – Clayton Christensen ( 65% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2029-01-01.
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World record for marathon <2 hours —François Péronnet ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-17; known on 2029-01-01.
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By 2028 there will be a biological catastrophe worse than COVID ( 2% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2029-01-01.
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Milestone 4 as discussed at http://www.scottaaronson.com/blog/?p=2155 will be achieved by 2028. ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-01-20; known on 2029-01-01.
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By 2029 no computer – or “machine intelligence” – will have passed the Turing Test. ( 48% confidence; 15 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2029-01-01.
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Clay Christensen: In 15 Years From Now Half of US Universities May Be in Bankruptcy ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-12-14; known on 2029-01-01.
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Human level AI by 2029 (Ray Kurzweil, “How to create a mind”) ( 25% confidence; 17 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-02-08; known on 2029-01-02.
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The Third World War (WW III) death toll will exceed 2.5 billion people, with another 2 billion to follow 15 years after the war has ended. ( 17% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-01-16.
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I will still be a NEET (including retired early) on my 30th birthday ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2029-03-01.
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The cost of one TFLOPS will be more than $0.9375 by 2029. ( 83% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-02; known on 2029-03-02.
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Donald Trump Jr. (Donald John Trump Jr.) (born December 31, 1977) has more than five children that he admits paternity of within ten (10) years ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2019-03-06; known on 2029-03-06.
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Within 14 years new carbon structures will enable the ability of producing in lab environments pressures of at least 3.6 * 10^13 Pa and many pure carbon substances will have near zero cost due. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-01; known on 2029-05-01.
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Starcraft III or Warcraft IV to be released by May 18, 2029 ( 65% confidence )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-17; known on 2029-05-18.
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Edward O. Wilson to become a centenarian ( 20% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2029-06-16.
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the Earth will be hit by a less than a mile wide asteroid by 2029. Two will be seen and one will hit. Impact will be in the Pacific Ocean south of Guam. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-07-29.
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Someone will succeed at the IMO grand challenge (https://imo-grand-challenge.github.io) in the next 10 years. ( 16% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2019-09-15; known on 2029-09-15.
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Professor Trevor Gaunt follows up or causes someone else to follow up with a proposal to widely effect positive policy change in this area [potential risks that geomagnetic storms] by 2027-10-01 ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2029-10-01.
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Generic molecular assemblers won't be developed within the next 20 years. By “generic” I mean they can build macroscopic (≥ 10 mm³) objects for any reasonable function, and by “molecular” meaning 50%+ of chemical bonds don't come from bulk chemistry. ( 77% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by bogdanb on 2009-10-14; known on 2029-10-14.
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Hacking and cyberterrorism will be punishable by death worldwide by Dec. 1, 2029. ( 7% confidence; 18 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-01.
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Sluggish cognitive tempo to be recognized as a disorder independent of ADHD in the DSM-6 ( 40% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2029-12-16.
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Global CO² emissions peak at 15.3Gt in 2029 —Bloomberg New Energy Finance ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-03-06; known on 2029-12-25.
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Computers will become truely self-aware by 2029. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-27.
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Bharat will pass the USA and EU in electricity production by 2029. 2nd largest oil importer in 2020. ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-14; known on 2029-12-31.
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C still widely in use in the 2020s ( 93% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-16; known on 2029-12-31.
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I will be an inventor. ( 15% confidence )
Created by account on 2023-01-16; known on 2029-12-31.
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By 2029, the “worldwide classroom” (WC) will be a standard in education in over 190 countries worldwide. ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-31.
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The Third World War (WW III) will occur within 20 years from 2012. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2029-12-31.
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Brasil will reduce 43% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2030 from 2005 levels. ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2029-12-31.
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Before 2030 organized religions will have no political influence. ( 10% confidence; 14 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2010-09-16; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by komponisto on 2010-09-29.
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Poland will legalize gay marriage by 2030, see https://www.unz.com/akarlin/poland-will-legalize-gay-marriage-within-10-years/ ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by akarlin on 2020-06-17; known on 2030-01-01.
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Before 2030, Shunji Iwai will direct another movie that I will rate 95/100 or higher ( 3% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-10-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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Before 2030 organised religions will no longer exist in any meaningful way and religion will no longer have any political influence. ( 8% confidence; 28 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by TheScholar on 2009-10-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Jack on 2009-11-16.
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Human drivers will be illegal on some Australian roads by 2030 ( 40% confidence )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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Human drivers will be illegal on some USA roads by 2030 ( 44% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-09-14; known on 2030-01-01.
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USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. ( 41% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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There is a base on the surface of the Moon and there is always someone there. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01.
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Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 ( 26% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.
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Norway will stop regular postal delivery to private houses of regular people by 2030 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by silacoid on 2016-03-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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6th edition of Dungeons and Dragons to come out by January 1, 2030. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-09-06; known on 2030-01-01.
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Between 2019 and 2030 the price of bitcoin will rise above 15000$ per bitcoin ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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“SaskPower plans to reduce emissions by 40 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. By that year, it wants to have added an additional 1,600 megawatts of wind power over 2017 levels.” ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by saskboy on 2017-08-31; known on 2030-01-01.