Peak global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in 2028 ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, there will be commercial and/or free applications/overlays that will present the user with lie/truth probabilities of a talking person – useful e.g. for politicians in TV debates. It could be video analysis, augmented reality overlays or somethin ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by silacoid on 2015-07-16; known on 2030-01-01.

The Greek military will see major action, separate from peacekeeping initiatives outside of Europe, by 2030. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-27; known on 2030-01-01.

The cost projections of the hyperloop are underestimates by at least an order of magnitude. ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2030-01-01.

Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-29; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by danpop on 2016-02-11; known on 2030-01-01.

“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2030-01-01.

Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-20; known on 2030-01-01.

The rest of the European countries will introduce visa för Sweden by 2030 ( 95% confidence )

Created by d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.

A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.

The Breakthrough Starshot initiative will construct a working prototype of a laser-propelled nanocraft capable of accelerating to more than 1% of the speed of light, before 2030. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sflicht on 2016-04-26; known on 2030-01-01.

An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030 ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-25; known on 2030-01-01.

A city of population >50,000 in the United States will ban the sale of all meat products that came from a sentient animal ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Dapple on 2016-11-15; known on 2030-01-01.

“By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon.” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2030-01-01.

P vs. NP will be still unsolved at the end of this decade. ( 96% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Leifa on 2022-07-11; known on 2030-01-01.

SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Lunchroom1685 on 2023-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, archeological forensics will discover or identify an artifact with encoded (accidentally or otherwise) audio older than the phonautograms created by 19th century phonautographs. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by roxton on 2013-01-11; known on 2030-01-01.

No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2030-01-01.

We will discover alien biosignatures via advanced telescopes investigating alien atmospheres ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2021-05-14; known on 2030-01-01.

“SaskPower plans to reduce emissions by 40 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. By that year, it wants to have added an additional 1,600 megawatts of wind power over 2017 levels.” ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by saskboy on 2017-08-31; known on 2030-01-01.

Turing Testable AIs will be publicly available by 2030. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Prickman on 2020-01-07; known on 2030-01-01.

Between now and 2030, a feature length movie will be made about the life of one of the major figures of classical anarchism. (e.g. Proudhon, Kropotkin, Malatesta, Durruti, Goldman etc.) ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-16; known on 2030-01-01.

IEA: US to become net oil exporter by 2030 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2030-01-01.

Norway will stop regular postal delivery to private houses of regular people by 2030 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by silacoid on 2016-03-31; known on 2030-01-01.

“Hypersonic airliners are entering [commercial] service” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2030-01-01.

Varun Grover thinks “No democracies, no dissent, and a world much like JG Ballard's High Rise” link: https://twitter.com/varungrover/status/1240970794001301504 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by volis on 2020-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.

There will be at least 1 wide-scale (>100 rioters) racial riot in South Korea in the 2020s. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2030-01-01.

I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bacon1001 on 2018-01-25; known on 2030-01-01.

SpaceX Starship to not have any crewed launches before 2030. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-15; known on 2030-01-01.

Aoki Uru will be released as a full movie by 2030. ( 9% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-21; known on 2030-01-01.

Person to walk on the moon by 2030 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Antbak on 2019-07-08; known on 2030-01-01.

The U.S. will re-institute the draft during this decade. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2020-01-05; known on 2030-01-01.

I will lose my virginity before the Turing test is passed (operationalized as the $25,000 Loebner Prize) ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2030-01-01.

Aam Aadmi Party, like the Indian National Congress, will disappear from the electoral map of India. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-06-03; known on 2030-01-01.

At least one financial collapse will happen to the US in the 2020s ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-07-26; known on 2030-01-01.

Covid vaccines will be recognized as causing ongoing health issues of at least 3 months duration in from 1 in 500 and 1 in 5000 vaccinated individuals ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2021-12-26; known on 2030-01-01.

Meat and/or dairy products from cellular agriculture will be commercially available by January 1st, 2030. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.

A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.

“Starship will never land in one piece on the moon or Mars” ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-12; known on 2030-01-01.

“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-19; known on 2030-01-01.

The U.S. plant-based and cultured-based retail market will be worth more than 9bn 2020USD throughout 2029. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.

Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 84% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.

'The majority of new vehicles are plug-in electric, or hybrids' ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, at least one mainly self-driving privately owned car will be legally driven on the Norwegian main roads. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by silacoid on 2015-07-10; known on 2030-01-01.

“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.” ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.

Avi gets a bachelor's degree from UW ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.