There is a base on the surface of the Moon and there is always someone there. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.

An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01.

The cost projections of the hyperloop are underestimates by at least an order of magnitude. ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2030-01-01.

Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.

We will discover alien biosignatures via advanced telescopes investigating alien atmospheres ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Leo on 2021-05-14; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-29; known on 2030-01-01.

“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2030-01-01.

I predict that humans will land on mars by 2030 ( 40% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bacon1001 on 2018-01-25; known on 2030-01-01.

Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-20; known on 2030-01-01.

SpinLaunch launches no payloads (test or otherwise, suborbital or other) by 2030. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.

A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.

The Breakthrough Starshot initiative will construct a working prototype of a laser-propelled nanocraft capable of accelerating to more than 1% of the speed of light, before 2030. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sflicht on 2016-04-26; known on 2030-01-01.

Covid vaccines will be recognized as causing ongoing health issues of at least 3 months duration in from 1 in 500 and 1 in 5000 vaccinated individuals ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2021-12-26; known on 2030-01-01.

An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030 ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-25; known on 2030-01-01.

Peak global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in 2028 ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.

“By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon.” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, archeological forensics will discover or identify an artifact with encoded (accidentally or otherwise) audio older than the phonautograms created by 19th century phonautographs. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by roxton on 2013-01-11; known on 2030-01-01.

No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2030-01-01.

We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2030-01-01.

“Starship will never land in one piece on the moon or Mars” ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-12; known on 2030-01-01.

Between now and 2030, a feature length movie will be made about the life of one of the major figures of classical anarchism. (e.g. Proudhon, Kropotkin, Malatesta, Durruti, Goldman etc.) ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-16; known on 2030-01-01.

IEA: US to become net oil exporter by 2030 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2030-01-01.

Person to walk on the moon by 2030 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Antbak on 2019-07-08; known on 2030-01-01.

“Hypersonic airliners are entering [commercial] service” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2030-01-01.

The Greek military will see major action, separate from peacekeeping initiatives outside of Europe, by 2030. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-27; known on 2030-01-01.

I will lose my virginity before the Turing test is passed (operationalized as the $25,000 Loebner Prize) ( 48% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2030-01-01.

There will be at least 1 wide-scale (>100 rioters) racial riot in South Korea in the 2020s. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2030-01-01.

Biden to be diagnosed with dementia sometime by 2030 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-02; known on 2030-01-01.

Övriga EU länder kommer att införa visum mot Sverige före 2030 ( 85% confidence )

Created by gsfshdshdfgfd@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.

Aoki Uru will be released as a full movie by 2030. ( 9% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-21; known on 2030-01-01.

Avi gets a bachelor's degree from UW ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by playablecharacter on 2017-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, there will be fewer than 3.5 million people employed in the US as truck drivers, as autonomous vehicles penetrate the market. ( 82% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2016-07-26; known on 2030-01-01.

A city of population >50,000 in the United States will ban the sale of all meat products that came from a sentient animal ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Dapple on 2016-11-15; known on 2030-01-01.

Turing Testable AIs will be publicly available by 2030. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Prickman on 2020-01-07; known on 2030-01-01.

SpaceX Starship to not have any crewed launches before 2030. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-15; known on 2030-01-01.

“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-19; known on 2030-01-01.

Norway will stop regular postal delivery to private houses of regular people by 2030 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by silacoid on 2016-03-31; known on 2030-01-01.

Meat and/or dairy products from cellular agriculture will be commercially available by January 1st, 2030. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.

Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 84% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.

Between 2019 and 2030 the price of bitcoin will rise above 15000$ per bitcoin ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-01.

'The majority of new vehicles are plug-in electric, or hybrids' ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2030-01-01.

P vs. NP will be still unsolved at the end of this decade. ( 96% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Leifa on 2022-07-11; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, at least one mainly self-driving privately owned car will be legally driven on the Norwegian main roads. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by silacoid on 2015-07-10; known on 2030-01-01.

“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.” ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.

By end of 2030, there will be commercially available self-driving cars in at least one OECD country where it will be legal to use them. ( 93% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-24; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, there will be commercial and/or free applications/overlays that will present the user with lie/truth probabilities of a talking person – useful e.g. for politicians in TV debates. It could be video analysis, augmented reality overlays or somethin ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by silacoid on 2015-07-16; known on 2030-01-01.

A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.