rapamycin to be demonstrated to increase average lifespan in dogs by 2026 ( 70% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2027-01-01.

PRC blockade of Taiwan by sea and air ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-10-26; known on 2027-01-01.

Capitalism will collapse. Federal gov won't exist. Peak oil ( 12% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Musrang on 2023-03-21; known on 2027-01-01.

'The cost per watt of solar PV has dropped to below $1' by 2027 ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2027-01-01.

I will use PredictionBook at least once a year until 2027 ( 33% confidence )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-19; known on 2027-01-01.

SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 47% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-30; known on 2027-01-01.

2017 Cloud Cover for continental US more than it was in 2007 ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-26; known on 2027-01-01.

Caffeine will be an illegal substance … in 60 countries by 2027. ( 4% confidence; 14 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-01-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a success ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2025-06-30 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2025-12-31 ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2024-12-31 ( 9% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2026-12-31 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2026-06-30 ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending on] 2024-06-30 ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-01; known on 2027-01-01.

The cure rate for persons diagnosed with mild/early Alzheimer's disease will exceed 20% ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-05-27; known on 2027-01-01.

Facebook caught labelling website as “fake news” for saying negative things about Facebook. ( 77% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-16; known on 2027-01-08.

By Feb 1, 2027, clear that massive reduction in fertility due to Covid vaccines. ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-19; known on 2027-02-02.

Russia to invade Israel in the next 5 years. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-07; known on 2027-02-08.

Age-adjusted mortality rate in men from lung cancer in England/Wales <= 400/million (as reported by ONS — 2015: 704, 2001: 963) ( 60% confidence )

Created by penten on 2017-02-15; known on 2027-02-15.

The worlds first “truely” cryogenic sleep chamber will go online in Feb. 2027, fixing a flawed design and conditions for cryogenic stasis. ( 5% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-02-27.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a major success ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a major success ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to The Royal Society for the Prevention of Cruelty to Animals (RSPCA) a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Compassion in World Farming a success ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-03-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a success ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-04-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Jeanne Marchig Centre a major success ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-04-01.

World GDP will have grown by at least 7.5% (roughly double the average since 1950) within one calendar year up to and including 2026. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-15; known on 2027-04-02.

Sean Spicer tweeted a bitcoin address ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-05-02; known on 2027-05-02.

no strict reversal of Bostock vs Clayton County (that discrimination against trans people is protected against under the civil rights act), but i anticipate it will be weakened via “religious liberty” suits in the next 6 years. ( 62% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2027-05-08.

legislation to ban trans healthcare (hrt, surgery, or social transition) in children will be upheld by the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 59% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2027-05-08.

legislation to ban trans healthcare (hrt, surgery) in adults will be upheld by the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 1% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2027-05-08.

I in 4 years ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-05-23; known on 2027-05-23.

More than 50% of households in saskatchewan have at least 1 bicycle with an electric motor attached. ( 35% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-31; known on 2027-05-31.

More than 50% of households who have motorized vehicles in saskatchewan have at least 1 bicycle with an electric motor attached. ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-31; known on 2027-05-31.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a success ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-07-01.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2017 grant to Humane Slaughter Association (HSA) a major success ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-07-01.

On the Internet, the language barrier will be completely erased, most browsers will automatically translate absolutely everything, including videos, indistinguishable from the original spelling in your language. ( 34% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by EniScien on 2022-07-03; known on 2027-07-03.

Penn State won't put back up Joe Paterno's statue for the next 15 years. ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-07-23; known on 2027-07-23.

Antifa goes one step “too far”, commits act of unmistakeable err, is publicly roasted across the spectrum, and becomes much less prominent as a thing compared to 2017 ( 49% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-17; known on 2027-08-17.

S.M. is gay ( 5% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-10; known on 2027-09-01.

texting & driving illegal in most canadian provinces AND most vehicles (66%+) on the road fitted with safety features rendering such laws irrelevant ( 81% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-02; known on 2027-09-04.

Conditional on the psych eval being released to the public, it will show that Martin Shkreli has aspergers or is on the autistic spectrum ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-20; known on 2027-09-21.

Someone is jailed for building or selling child fembots(conversant, 'anatomically functional' robots capable of bipedal self directed movement that look like underage girls) ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-29; known on 2027-09-29.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its September 2016 University of Cape Town Geomagnetics Research grant a success given that Professor Gaunt completes at least 80% of the work ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-10-01.

There will be a major uncontrolled forest fire in northern half of France (north of Clermont Ferrand, eg. Sologne or other forrests) due to increased heat, poor forest management and fire hazards ( 75% confidence )

Created by technophil on 2023-03-06; known on 2027-10-01.

KIC 8462852's strange light patterns will be determined within a very high confidence to be natural by November 1, 2027 ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-10-14; known on 2027-10-02.

permissioned blockchains will enable sophisticated embezzlement ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2027-10-09.

permissioned blockchains will enable persecution of activists ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-10-12; known on 2027-10-09.

Social Engineering will go into standard practice for The Prison Reform Act in late 2027. ( 75% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2027-10-15.