altyn currency of at least 2 countries ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-16; known on 2025-12-31.

At least one chief executive of any large fossil fuel / oil / mining company will be assassinated before 2025 due to ( perceived ) culpability. ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2025-12-31.

Indonesia will be ranked 8 on the IMF's GDP at current prices ranking of the world's largest economies, as they already are at PPP valuation. The UK and France will be forced down to No 9 and 10. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-10; known on 2025-12-31.

Rossiya will be ranked 6 on the IMF's GDP at current prices ranking of the world's largest economies, as they already are at PPP valuation. The UK and France will be forced down to No 9 and 10. Relative ranking of UK and France is unspecified. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-10; known on 2025-12-31.

Quora will independently survive to 2025 ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-10; known on 2025-12-31.

“I predict that global warming denialists such as MIT professor Richard Lindzen will be shown to be wrong over the next 20 years as global warming continues. Specifically, I believe the scientific consensus that temperatures are likely to increase by .3 d ( 67% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-12-31.

Brasil will be ranked 7 on the IMF's GDP at current prices ranking of the world's largest economies, as they already are at PPP valuation. The UK and France will be forced down to No 9 and 10. ( 100% confidence )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-10; known on 2025-12-31.

North and South Korea will reunify by 2025 ( 20% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-15; known on 2025-12-31.

Bharat's carbon dioxide peaking year will be 2030. ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-03; known on 2025-12-31.

[Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not dis discovered within the next four years] If this occurs interest in Dark Fluid theories grows greatly (size of the Wikipedia page and the number of references to Popular Sci articles both double within a year of the non-discovery). ( 50% confidence )

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2025-12-31.

[Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not dis discovered within the next four years] Dark Matter and Dark Energy are not discovered within the next four years ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2025-12-31.

“The nation with the highest (nominal) gdp in the world in 2025 will be China.” ( 63% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2025-12-31.

“Major online internet useage research firms will record that over 3 billion people in 2025 managed their incoming and outgoing digital information using a graphical user interface based on Quadrant Theory – as described in Marshall McLuhan's “Tetrad” mod ( 3% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2025-12-31.

Lucas and I will have written a book on negation in event semantics by the end of 2025 ( 65% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-09-07; known on 2025-12-31.

60% or more of the population of any one country will use public transit more frequently than driving by 2025 ( 15% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2025-12-31.

By the end of 2025, in Luxembourg, there will be some form of an autonomous taxi-fleet that can take you from rue Michel Lentz Strassen to rue Charles Tornaco Luxembourg. (chosen more or less randomly) ( 65% confidence )

Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-05-28; known on 2025-12-31.

World's total fertility rate will fall to replacement rate by 2025. In 1960, women worldwide had an average of 5 children. The rate has since halved, and in 2012, women had an average of 2.5 children across all regions. The World Bank is the source. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-08-29; known on 2025-12-31.

Mark Zuckerberg, co-founder of Facebook, is President of the United States before 2026 ( 3% confidence; 18 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2026-01-01.

A public, high-speed (at least 4G speed), backwards compatible and equivalent internet to the current fibre-based system, in the HF radio spectrum, suitable for at least national propagation between nodes, implemented by 2025 ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by luxpir on 2015-09-29; known on 2026-01-01.

Stellar Lumens (or any Asset on Stellar) will be my preferred means of payment for some transactions (e.g. one of but not limited to online purchases, rent, point of sale, etc.) ( 30% confidence )

Created by moyamo on 2021-01-26; known on 2026-01-01.

Matrix will be my preferred means of communication with a non-techie friend. They will either use a native matrix client or a service which natively federates with matrix (i.e. I won't need a bridge). ( 70% confidence )

Created by moyamo on 2021-01-26; known on 2026-01-01.

1 000 million tons of cement production by 2025. ( 100% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2026-01-01.

Brasil will reduce 37% of its greenhouse gas emissions by 2025 from 2005 levels—Dilma Rouseff ( 71% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-17; known on 2026-01-01.

By 2025, at least five top-ranking Western Ph.D. psychology programmes (out of a plausible 'world top 10' at the time) will require the conduction a high-quality “direct” replication attempt of a major finding in their research area. ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RoryS on 2015-07-19; known on 2026-01-01.

China NOT to conduct overt military action against Taiwan before 2026 ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by niconiconi on 2020-10-16; known on 2026-01-01.

Will it turn out by 2026 that grokking is essentially the same thing as phase shifts in thermodynamics/statistical mechanics? ( 38% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2026-01-01.

Will I belief that the bridge transform is illuminating something important about epistemology by 2026? ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Morpheus on 2022-12-16; known on 2026-01-01.

Cystic Fibrosis to be a curable illness by 2025 ( 40% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.

'Africa and the Middle East are linked by a transcontinental bridge' by 2025 ( 6% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.

A study will be done showing that cannabidiol increases lifespan in at least one model organism by 2025 ( 35% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.

'Experiments at a university have yielded the first 10 year old mice' by 2025 ( 44% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-29; known on 2026-01-01.

Boson Sampling or Scattershot Boson Sampling with at least 10 photons to be performed by January 1, 2026. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-10; known on 2026-01-01.

Voyager 1 to outlast Dawn Mission ( 75% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2026-01-01.

Marijuana to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 75% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.

In 2025, $1000 should buy you a computer able to calculate at 10^16 cycles per second (10,000 trillion cycles per second), the equivalent processing speed of the human brain. [Peter Diamandis] ( 30% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.

Voyager 1 to outlast the Mars Curiosity rover ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2026-01-01.

gnxp.com to last to 2025 ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.

Steam to remain as #1 digital distribution platform for gaming by 2025 ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.

Wolfram Research will last through 2025 ( 60% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.

At least one of the Voyagers to outlast the James Webb Space Telescope ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-16; known on 2026-01-01.

'2025 Neurological research finally leads to an understanding of all the senses, and direct input becomes possible, bypassing ears, eyes, skin, etc. The result is the metal “Braincap.” Anyone wearing this close-fitting helmet can enter a whole universe of ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-26; known on 2026-01-01.

By 2026 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 125. ( 18% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2026-01-01.

Speech to text processing to improve such that by end of 2025 it will be an essentially solved problem. ( 85% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-02-09; known on 2026-01-01.

There will be more elementary school teachers in 2025 than there are in 2012 (http://www.bls.gov/emp/ep_table_104.htm ) ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2026-01-01.

We will be able to robustly search audio files by text by 2025 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-08-16; known on 2026-01-01.

MDMA to be more popular in 2025 than 2015 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2026-01-01.

I will move out of Austin by 2025 ( 25% confidence )

Created by alexanderpasch on 2023-03-06; known on 2026-01-01.

Intrade (or a similar real money prediction market) will be legal in the US by 2026 ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-28; known on 2026-01-01.

ladybugs found to return to their birthplace, like salmon ( 50% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-13; known on 2026-01-01.