We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2030-01-01.

'The majority of new vehicles are plug-in electric, or hybrids' ( 85% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-07; known on 2030-01-01.

Between 2019 and 2030 the price of bitcoin will rise above 15000$ per bitcoin ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-01.

Assuming such services are still in demand, by 2030, more than 99% of court reporters, captioners, and CAT and CART providers in the U.S. will be replaced by automatic machines. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by quintopia on 2015-05-11; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, at least one mainly self-driving privately owned car will be legally driven on the Norwegian main roads. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by silacoid on 2015-07-10; known on 2030-01-01.

Critical failure of the Three Gorges Dam by 2030 ( 53% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jamesrom on 2020-09-29; known on 2030-01-01.

The Greek military will see major action, separate from peacekeeping initiatives outside of Europe, by 2030. ( 34% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Madplatypus on 2015-06-27; known on 2030-01-01.

Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ( 41% confidence; 20 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.

Level 3 autonomous cars will be commercially available by 2030. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.

The Sl4.org email archives will not be publicly available as text/HTML at sl4.org by 2030. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-11; known on 2030-01-01.

“Starship will never land in one piece on the moon or Mars” ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-12; known on 2030-01-01.

“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by danpop on 2016-02-11; known on 2030-01-01.

SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030 ( 45% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2030-01-01.

George Martin won't finish “A Song of Ice and Fire” series until 2030 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Stommelen on 2018-10-01; known on 2030-01-01.

“A nuclear explosive weapon will be used in war or terrorism.” ( 36% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.

At least one financial collapse will happen to the US in the 2020s ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.

People in the West will be largely “living in 15-minute prison camps, eating bugs, and living in pods.” ( 0% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.

Péter Nádas will win a Nobel Literature prize before 2030. ( 10% confidence )

Created by korakos on 2020-11-28; known on 2030-01-01.

A second lab achieves ignition in a fusion experiment ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-12; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] finding the axion ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030 genome sequencing would be offered as a service in local clinics/hospitals for an insignificant fee or for free in most (50%+) of the countries that today (2014) constitute together the Schengen Area, EU, Balkans, North America and Japan. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Neznans on 2014-05-05; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] a universal flu vaccine available to the general public in at least one country ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] functional brain implants made of brain tissue (not electronic) ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.

J is no longer Christian. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] a small, rocky exoplanet with water vapor ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.

Construction will start on replacements for the North River Tunnels by 2030 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-03; known on 2030-01-01.

Bryan Caplan will win his bet on climate statistics with Yoram Bauman. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12; known on 2030-01-01.

Google will be the first company with a market cap of $1 trillion. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-10-26; known on 2030-01-01.

A large-scale persistant Alternate Reality game is created which sets a “cyberspace grafitti” sort of layer on top of reality; sells poorly, but trudges on with a cult following. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-22; known on 2030-01-01.

At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2030-01-01.

humans on mars by 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by htaussig on 2021-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.

At least 50% of code on github will be generated by language models or their successors on January 1 2030. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by amrav on 2020-06-13; known on 2030-01-01.

The Australian Broadcasting Corporation will be privatised on or by 1/1/2030. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by najdorf on 2013-11-29; known on 2030-01-02.

I will have eaten lab-grown meat at least once every 2 months for one whole year (not necessarily Jan-Jan) before 2030 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-22; known on 2030-01-02.

The biggest federated social network will have at least 10 times more users than the biggest federated social network on 2019-01-01. ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-02.

At least 20 of the top 100 websites (Alexa rank) will only be usable (core functionality) after having paid a fee ( 20% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-02.

Non-condom reversible male contraception approved by the FDA by 2030 ( 73% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-23; known on 2030-01-02.

By 2030 consciousness, free will and qualia will be recognized as emergent properties of certain intelligences, and not phenomena that are dependent on any “spirit”, “god” or quantum magic. This bc of progress in AI. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by waveman on 2014-01-05; known on 2030-01-02.

If you live in a major city you will be able to hail some form of automatic car ride before 2030 ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-05-26; known on 2030-01-05.

Almost all commercial airplanes will have outlets by 2030 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by cmessinger on 2015-08-17; known on 2030-01-07.

By 2030 there will be fewer than 1,600,000 people employed as Heavy and Tractor-Trailer Truck Drivers (occupation code 53-3032) in the US as defined by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by pkfalu92 on 2017-01-06; known on 2030-01-16.

There will be a manned mission to Mars by 2030 ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sweeneyrod on 2014-10-29; known on 2030-01-16.

Seth Frotman's concerns about student loan lending practices will be vindicated ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by prophetofprofit on 2018-08-30; known on 2030-01-31.

humans on mars before 2030 ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by htaussig on 2021-02-26; known on 2030-02-26.

John McAfee faked his own death ( 4% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by XORXERY on 2021-06-24; known on 2030-04-01.

On my 40th birthday, I will have had 3 children (excluding offspring from selling eggs). ( 25% confidence )

Created by EloiseRosen on 2015-05-04; known on 2030-05-31.

War won't happen between China and Usa before June 2030 ( 66% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by randomlurker13 on 2012-11-25; known on 2030-06-01.

“On or before 8 June 2030, there will exist a computer language or programming system in which the prototypical first program, traditionally called “Hello, world!”, will have an executable file whose size exceeds 1 gigabyte.” ( 9% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-06-08.