PredictionBook: Upcoming Predictions

I will become a famous singer ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Uisaria on 2017-11-06; known on 2027-11-06.

[If Lula goes unpunished, Brazil will balkanize herself] If ex-president and capo mafioso gangster Lula and the permanent political class he bribed goes unpunished in 2018, there's a big chance Brazil will plunge into chaos and balkanize herself in the next ten years. ( 60% confidence )

Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2027-11-25.

[If Lula goes unpunished, Brazil will balkanize herself] The capital city will be moved elsewhere from Brasilia. ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2027-11-25.

[If Lula goes unpunished, Brazil will balkanize herself] A junta will take over after a military coup. ( 17% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Laudano on 2017-11-25; known on 2027-11-25.

Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a major success ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-12-01.

Bhāratīya Nau Senā (भारतीय नौ सेना) wil be a 200 ship fleet by 2027 – Admiral P Murugesan ( 87% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-24; known on 2027-12-31.

Within twelve years (2024), silicon transistor technology will run into fundamental physical constraints, and the normal progress of Moore's law will break down. However, exponential growth of processors in general will resume within three years. ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2027-12-31.

Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket to enter commercial service before the end of 2027 ( 90% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2027-12-31.

China will have world's largest GDP by 2027, and not before 2020. ( 56% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-10-01; known on 2027-12-31.

Humans will have landed on Mars alive by the 31-12-2027. (Landed in the sense that the vehicle/capsule in which they live, physically touches martian soil.) ( 10% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Mathieu_Putz on 2020-06-03; known on 2027-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2020-06-09.

Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha(IAF, भारतीय वायु सेना, Bharatiya Vāyu Senā) We are looking forward to building up our combat fleet to 42 squadrons by the end of the 14th plan, by 2027 ( 80% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-05; known on 2027-12-31.

Cycle of threats doesn't end. The united states and north korea each threaten to use nuclear weapons on eachother, in no uncertain terms, at least once every 6 months until 2027 ( 8% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-25; known on 2027-12-31.

In 2027(latest possible date) the EU and Ukraine will recognize the liberation of Crimea as an indivisible part of Rossiya(Россия). ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-07; known on 2027-12-31.

50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.

Apple officially announces a folding screen device by EoY 2027. ( 70% confidence )

Created by galaga on 2023-10-31; known on 2028-01-01.

If Trump is indicted in D.C., he will move for change-of-venue on the grounds that no impartial jury can be selected due to aggregate political prejudice of D.C. voters ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-08-26; known on 2028-01-01.

CS gas used indoors in the US before 2029 ( 16% confidence )

Created by technillogue on 2022-06-12; known on 2028-01-01.

BTCUSD does not reach $60,000 before 2028 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sjy on 2023-03-04; known on 2028-01-01.

China builds a moonbase by 2028 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-05; known on 2028-01-01.

By 2028, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-07; known on 2028-01-01.

I won't intentionally view any pornographic material before 2028 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by panashe on 2023-01-17; known on 2028-01-01.

Marjorie Taylor Greene is charged with sedition ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-22; known on 2028-01-01.

Human level AI across all virtual tasks before 2028. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by nathanpmyoung on 2022-02-16; known on 2028-01-01.

Software Engineer will become a protected term in California before 2028. ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2017-11-13; known on 2028-01-01.

Sean Hannity is charged with sedition ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-22; known on 2028-01-01.

The Eco is the common currency of Western African states. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-06; known on 2028-01-01.

The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16.

One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-18; known on 2028-01-31.

Iceland will become a major port for goods transported across the Northwest Passage. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2028-02-11.

The Russo-Ukrainian war is still ongoing ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2028-02-24.

“Bitcoin will be the world’s ‘single currency’ in 10 years” ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2018-03-21; known on 2028-03-21; judged unknown by Bruno Parga on 2018-04-09.

James D. Watson to become a centenarian ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2028-04-07.

By April 7th, 2028, there will be a time when 5 million or more Americans will be able to order pizza for delivery by drone to their home. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-04-07; known on 2028-04-07.

A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2028-05-01.

a nationwide ban on abortion goes into effect in the next 6 years, based on fetal personhood. ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )