Blue Origin's New Glenn rocket to enter commercial service before the end of 2027 ( 90% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2027-12-31.

Cycle of threats doesn't end. The united states and north korea each threaten to use nuclear weapons on eachother, in no uncertain terms, at least once every 6 months until 2027 ( 8% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-25; known on 2027-12-31.

50% chance of AI by 2028 —Shane Legg ( 23% confidence; 29 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-06-17; known on 2028-01-01.

Sean Hannity is charged with sedition ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-22; known on 2028-01-01.

I won't intentionally view any pornographic material before 2028 ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by panashe on 2023-01-17; known on 2028-01-01.

China builds a moonbase by 2028 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-01-05; known on 2028-01-01.

If Trump is indicted in D.C., he will move for change-of-venue on the grounds that no impartial jury can be selected due to aggregate political prejudice of D.C. voters ( 84% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-08-26; known on 2028-01-01.

CS gas used indoors in the US before 2029 ( 16% confidence )

Created by technillogue on 2022-06-12; known on 2028-01-01.

By 2028, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-07; known on 2028-01-01.

Marjorie Taylor Greene is charged with sedition ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-22; known on 2028-01-01.

Human level AI across all virtual tasks before 2028. ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by nathanpmyoung on 2022-02-16; known on 2028-01-01.

BTCUSD does not reach $60,000 before 2028 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sjy on 2023-03-04; known on 2028-01-01.

Software Engineer will become a protected term in California before 2028. ( 24% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2017-11-13; known on 2028-01-01.

Apple officially announces a folding screen device by EoY 2027. ( 70% confidence )

Created by galaga on 2023-10-31; known on 2028-01-01.

The Eco is the common currency of Western African states. ( 1% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2021-07-06; known on 2028-01-01.

The United States will reach less than 3% unemployment at some point within the next 15 years. ( 11% confidence; 15 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Cy Fleming on 2013-01-16; known on 2028-01-16.

One or more participants in the Twitter hack is revealed to have been an employee of the Russian government ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2020-07-18; known on 2028-01-31.

Iceland will become a major port for goods transported across the Northwest Passage. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by halfwaytogallifrey on 2013-02-11; known on 2028-02-11.

The Russo-Ukrainian war is still ongoing ( 8% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Reinersaltaccount on 2023-03-13; known on 2028-02-24.

By April 7th, 2028, there will be a time when 5 million or more Americans will be able to order pizza for delivery by drone to their home. ( 21% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2018-04-07; known on 2028-04-07.

James D. Watson to become a centenarian ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2028-04-07.

A Confirmed SETI detection of an ET technological civilization. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2028-05-01.

a nationwide ban on abortion goes into effect in the next 6 years, based on fetal personhood. ( 25% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

laws against unmarried people living together on the local level will spread ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

large credit card companies, paypal, square etc. refuse to accept payments from businesses that sell trans care items: for example, binders, packers, queer comics, flags, art. ( 11% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

a case will come before the supreme court regarding anti-blasphemy or obscenity laws, and the court will take the case. ( 57% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

serious challenge to obergefell goes before the supreme court in the next 6 years. ( 59% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

lawrence v texas won't be overturned in the next 6 years, but will be substantially weakened by alterations to the scope of what counts as public sex, the expectation of privacy, or by what counts as obscenity. ( 39% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

purchase of at least one major news network or org (i don't mean twitter) by a conservative group or individual. (if i were going to guess which in particular, i'd guess abc) with the intent to turn it into a conservative media outlet ( 31% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

assuming roe v wade is overturned, certain kinds of hormonal contraception will be classified as abortificants and banned in some states. ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

gender studies, women's studies, queer studies, ethnic studies defunded from multiple universities, in particular state universities. ( 67% confidence )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

it becomes significantly more difficult for queer couples to get surrogates or adopt in the united states within 6 years. ( 63% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2028-05-08.

Google will survive for 15 more years ( 91% confidence; 29 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-05-19; known on 2028-05-19.

Eliezer Yudkowsky's “estimate of the optimal age will be twenty years higher” than it was in 2008 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-09; known on 2028-05-30.

Glucose-powered electronics will go for FDA approval in 2028 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by icrbow on 2017-08-03; known on 2028-06-01.

I will not use an Apple Vision Plus (or comparable Apple VR/AR product) more than two hours per day. ( 90% confidence )

Created by kadavy on 2023-06-06; known on 2028-06-01.

>1000 sq. mi of currently-Canadian land is under US sovereignty as of july 4 2028 ( 1% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by finback on 2020-08-21; known on 2028-07-04.

2048 bit RSA keys to be widely considered to be deprecated by July 7, 2028 ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-07; known on 2028-07-08.

There will be less people cryogenically frozen in China than in the US by 2028. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-02; known on 2028-08-13.

It will be illegal to drive yourself on Australian public roads ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.

It will be illegal to drive yourself on USA public roads ( 1% confidence; 21 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2013-08-26; known on 2028-08-26.

Human extinction caused by AI before my 35th birthday. ( 4% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2028-10-10.

People will choose virtual-reality clothes/make-up/accessories (like Snapchat filters), that are visible in real life to most people around them. This will be used by >10% of people, walking down the street, on dates, in business contexts. ( 33% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Leo on 2018-10-21; known on 2028-10-21.

Elon Musk will come out as trans (MtF or MtX) ( 3% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Leo on 2018-10-23; known on 2028-10-23.

The Pope will be assassinated. ( 2% confidence; 35 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2013-11-28; known on 2028-11-28.

Surgeries for 95% of the worlds medical problems will be drastically cost-reduced and available by 2028. ( 27% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2028-12-27.

Alexei Navalny becomes president or prime minister of Russia by the year 2028. ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by ArisKatsaris on 2013-07-26; known on 2028-12-31.

My net financial worth will be greater than 10 million (2012-inflation adjusted), or enough to indefinitely earn a passive income to provide 100 people with cryonics, (whichever of the two is greater), by 2028 ( 8% confidence; 18 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-01-12; known on 2028-12-31.