Upcoming Predictions
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USA will collapse before the People's Republic of China. ( 41% confidence; 17 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-04; known on 2030-01-01.
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Elon Musk has sent a crewed mission to Mars ( 19% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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There is a base on the surface of the Moon and there is always someone there. ( 5% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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An off-planet Playboy club is operational before 2030. ( 9% confidence; 11 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by Anubhav on 2012-03-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030 the Singularity Institute for Artificial Intelligence will have given up on friendly AI and instead focus on fail-safe mechanisms. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01.
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Human-level artificial general intelligence by 2030 ( 26% confidence; 19 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Alexander Kruel on 2011-08-17; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by Porejide on 2011-08-25.
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A city of population >50,000 in the United States will ban the sale of all meat products that came from a sentient animal ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Dapple on 2016-11-15; known on 2030-01-01.
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SpaceX Starship to not have any crewed launches before 2030. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-15; known on 2030-01-01.
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The U.S. will re-institute the draft during this decade. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by krazemon on 2020-01-05; known on 2030-01-01.
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The cost projections of the hyperloop are underestimates by at least an order of magnitude. ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-15; known on 2030-01-01.
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Tesla Motors / SpaceX / Elon Musk will create a working hyperloop by 2030. ( 17% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Malcolm Ocean on 2013-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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A male birth control pill will be commercially available in the US or EU by 2045. ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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P vs. NP will be still unsolved at the end of this decade. ( 96% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by Leifa on 2022-07-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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Artificial Superintelligence Emerges before 1st of January 2030 ( 52% confidence )
Created by rudyon on 2023-04-01; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, mothers will be the primary breadwinner in the majority of households with children in the U.S. ( 38% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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“The End of State Sovereignty: By 2030, some form of international federation or global governmental structure will emerge that can exercise ultimate authority over world affairs.” ( 11% confidence; 13 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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Warren Buffett: All cars on the road will be electric by year 2030 ( 29% confidence; 14 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-05-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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The rest of the European countries will introduce visa för Sweden by 2030 ( 95% confidence )
Created by d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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A right wing billionaire is behind the creation of bitcoin. ( 8% confidence; 14 wagers; 14 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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An element will be discovered with atomic number of 119 or greater before January 1, 2030 ( 59% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-04-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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“By 2030 all surgical anesthesia will be administered and monitored by computers, with no need for professional medical supervision beyond the surgeon.” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-07-30; known on 2030-01-01.
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“SaskPower plans to reduce emissions by 40 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030. By that year, it wants to have added an additional 1,600 megawatts of wind power over 2017 levels.” ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by saskboy on 2017-08-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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Between 2019 and 2030 the price of bitcoin will rise above 15000$ per bitcoin ( 35% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by pranomostro on 2019-01-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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Turing Testable AIs will be publicly available by 2030. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Prickman on 2020-01-07; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, archeological forensics will discover or identify an artifact with encoded (accidentally or otherwise) audio older than the phonautograms created by 19th century phonautographs. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by roxton on 2013-01-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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No amendments to the United States Constitution will be ratified by 2030. ( 63% confidence; 13 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-12-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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Varun Grover thinks “No democracies, no dissent, and a world much like JG Ballard's High Rise” link: https://twitter.com/varungrover/status/1240970794001301504 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by volis on 2020-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.
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Norway will stop regular postal delivery to private houses of regular people by 2030 ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by silacoid on 2016-03-31; known on 2030-01-01.
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The Breakthrough Starshot initiative will construct a working prototype of a laser-propelled nanocraft capable of accelerating to more than 1% of the speed of light, before 2030. ( 28% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sflicht on 2016-04-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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Covid vaccines will be recognized as causing ongoing health issues of at least 3 months duration in from 1 in 500 and 1 in 5000 vaccinated individuals ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2021-12-26; known on 2030-01-01.
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A substance will be found with a melting point of at least 7,520 F by 2030. ( 65% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-07-28; known on 2030-01-01.
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Between now and 2030, a feature length movie will be made about the life of one of the major figures of classical anarchism. (e.g. Proudhon, Kropotkin, Malatesta, Durruti, Goldman etc.) ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-16; known on 2030-01-01.
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IEA: US to become net oil exporter by 2030 ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-11-12; known on 2030-01-01.
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“Hypersonic airliners are entering [commercial] service” ( 25% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, at least one mainly self-driving privately owned car will be legally driven on the Norwegian main roads. ( 72% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by silacoid on 2015-07-10; known on 2030-01-01.
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Avi gets a bachelor's degree from UW ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-04-08; known on 2030-01-01.
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There will be at least 1 wide-scale (>100 rioters) racial riot in South Korea in the 2020s. ( 22% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2030-01-01.
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Övriga Europeiska länder kommer att införa visum för Sverige före år 2030 ( 95% confidence )
Created by d8e8fca2dc0f896fd7cb4cb0031ba249@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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Peak global anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions in 2028 ( 60% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Aoki Uru will be released as a full movie by 2030. ( 9% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2012-09-21; known on 2030-01-01.
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Péter Nádas will win a Nobel Literature prize before 2030. ( 10% confidence )
Created by korakos on 2020-11-28; known on 2030-01-01.
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Övriga EU länder kommer att införa visum mot Sverige före 2030 ( 85% confidence )
Created by gsfshdshdfgfd@mailinator.com on 2018-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by danpop on 2016-02-11; known on 2030-01-01.
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The U.S. plant-based and cultured-based retail market will be worth more than 9bn 2020USD throughout 2029. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.
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We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion, of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2030. ( 78% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2030-01-01.
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Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.
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Life will be discovered on Titan by 2030. ( 5% confidence; 11 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2030-01-01; judged unknown by gwern on 2010-09-06.
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“I predict that by 2030, China will lay an ownership claim to the entire moon.”- Kelly L Anderson ( 8% confidence; 11 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-05-19; known on 2030-01-01.
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Computer Go running on commodity hardware (<$2k) to reach world champion level (>=9 dan) by 2030 ( 84% confidence; 27 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.
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Level 5 self-driving air vehicles will be available by 2030. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.