At least two commercial reactors supplying fusion power to the grid by 2030. ( 23% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-22; known on 2030-01-01.

Above 45°C temperature record in germany as of 2030 ( 20% confidence )

Created by atzeje on 2023-06-23; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, Bluesky (Jack Dorsey startup/app) becomes widely used ( 35% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.

The Sl4.org email archives will not be publicly available as text/HTML at sl4.org by 2030. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-11; known on 2030-01-01.

“By 2030, commercial passengers will routinely fly in pilotless planes.” ( 35% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-07-29; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, at least 70% of jobs existing in 2015 will be replaced with automation. ( 26% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-20; known on 2030-01-01.

Level 5 self-driving air vehicles will be available by 2030. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-29; known on 2030-01-01.

The Russian Federation will disintegrate in the next 15 years, defined by either the current amount of land broadly recognized as Russia reducing by 20% or a clear state of anarchy and general collapse. ( 8% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.

Robots able to clean a whole bathroom will be commercially available by 2030 ( 78% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jasticE on 2015-04-19; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, the consensus in the United States will be that 9/11 was an inside job with US government involvement. Consensus to be determined by at least 60% of the US believing it, or it to be widely accepted in some other fashion if the situation has broke ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.

Man will travel to Mars by 2030. ( 41% confidence; 20 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-04-13; known on 2030-01-01.

“Starship will never land in one piece on the moon or Mars” ( 23% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-03-12; known on 2030-01-01.

SpaceX Starship to not have any crewed launches before 2030. ( 30% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-15; known on 2030-01-01.

The U.S. plant-based and cultured-based retail market will be worth more than 9bn 2020USD throughout 2029. ( 60% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.

Artificial Superintelligence Emerges before 1st of January 2030 ( 52% confidence )

Created by rudyon on 2023-04-01; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, Elon Musk sells Twitter or allows it to declare bankruptcy ( 75% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-11-02; known on 2030-01-01.

Turing Testable AIs will be publicly available by 2030. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Prickman on 2020-01-07; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030, Taiwan will be a part of China, without being a war. ( 15% confidence; 10 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by danpop on 2016-02-11; known on 2030-01-01.

The U.S. will re-institute the draft during this decade. ( 18% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2020-01-05; known on 2030-01-01.

A peace treaty ends the arab-israeli conflict before 2030. ( 11% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-09-08; known on 2030-01-01.

'By 2030, we are likely to have developed no-frills brain-machine interfaces, allowing the paralysed to dance in their thought-controlled exoskeleton suits.' —David Eagleman ( 32% confidence; 11 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2030-01-01.

Covid vaccines will be recognized as causing ongoing health issues of at least 3 months duration in from 1 in 500 and 1 in 5000 vaccinated individuals ( 22% confidence; 8 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jasticE on 2021-12-26; known on 2030-01-01.

A second lab achieves ignition in a fusion experiment ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-12-12; known on 2030-01-01.

George Martin won't finish “A Song of Ice and Fire” series until 2030 ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Stommelen on 2018-10-01; known on 2030-01-01.

A room temperature, ambient pressure superconductor is used in household appliances by 2030 ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-08-12; known on 2030-01-01.

Meat and/or dairy products from cellular agriculture will be commercially available by January 1st, 2030. ( 90% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.

A company with its main activity being cultured meat and/or dairy products will be valued at >= 1bn 2020USD by January 1st, 2030. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2020-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.

A city of population >50,000 in the United States will ban the sale of all meat products that came from a sentient animal ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Dapple on 2016-11-15; known on 2030-01-01.

SpinLaunch launches no payloads (test or otherwise, suborbital or other) by 2030. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Athrithalix on 2018-02-23; known on 2030-01-01.

Before 2030, more than 35% of US-Americans will have no religious identity (not counting babies). ( 40% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-02-06; known on 2030-01-01.

An hyperloop will be in use before 2030. ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-01-26; known on 2030-01-01.

Trump wins Nobel ( 10% confidence; 41 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-03; known on 2030-01-01.

“China will break apart by 2030” ( 24% confidence; 10 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2030-01-01.

SpaceX will land people on Mars prior to 2030 ( 45% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukefreeman on 2018-08-28; known on 2030-01-01.

Person to walk on the moon by 2030 ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Antbak on 2019-07-08; known on 2030-01-01.

Implanted RFIDs and similar cybernetics will be mainstream (popular?) by 2030 ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-20; known on 2030-01-01.

SpaceX will NOT land people on Mars by 2030. ( 55% confidence; 10 wagers )

Created by Lunchroom1685 on 2023-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.

J is no longer Christian. ( 12% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by memoriesofbutter on 2015-12-24; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] functional brain implants made of brain tissue (not electronic) ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] a universal flu vaccine available to the general public in at least one country ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] finding the axion ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.

By 2030 genome sequencing would be offered as a service in local clinics/hospitals for an insignificant fee or for free in most (50%+) of the countries that today (2014) constitute together the Schengen Area, EU, Balkans, North America and Japan. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by Neznans on 2014-05-05; known on 2030-01-01.

[2020s scientific advances:] a small, rocky exoplanet with water vapor ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-04; known on 2030-01-01.

Construction will start on replacements for the North River Tunnels by 2030 ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-09-03; known on 2030-01-01.

Bryan Caplan will win his bet on climate statistics with Yoram Bauman. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2014-07-12; known on 2030-01-01.

Google will be the first company with a market cap of $1 trillion. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2013-10-26; known on 2030-01-01.

At least 2 billion biological humans will be alive on Earth at the beginning of 2030. ( 94% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by lukeprog on 2012-09-04; known on 2030-01-01.

A large-scale persistant Alternate Reality game is created which sets a “cyberspace grafitti” sort of layer on top of reality; sells poorly, but trudges on with a cult following. ( 16% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kallman on 2010-11-22; known on 2030-01-01.

humans on mars by 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by htaussig on 2021-03-20; known on 2030-01-01.