[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2031 ( 95% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.

A human has set foot on Mars ( 9% confidence; 12 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-08-11; known on 2031-01-01.

There will be more Scarlet Macaws in 2030 than 2010 ( 20% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.

There to be more kakapo in 2030 than 2010 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.

There to be more orcas in 2030 than 2010 ( 10% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.

Portland, OR to have higher population in 2030 than 2010 ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.

At least 10 percent of people in the U.S. to be vegetarian (or in-vitro-ist) in 2030 ( 28% confidence; 13 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.

At least 10% of 18-year olds in the US will be unschooled by 2030 ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2031-01-01.

The Riemann Hypothesis will be proven before 2031 ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2031-01-01.

Rich Sutton: AI by 'roughly 2030' ( 41% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-05-10; known on 2031-01-01.

Phoenix, AZ population higher in 2030 than 2010 ( 50% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2031-01-01.

[The next interstellar object will be discovered] before 2024 ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-20; known on 2031-01-01.

US obesity rate above 31.6% in 2030 ( 51% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-26; known on 2031-01-01.

Climate change catastrophes cause more property damage over than 2020-2030 period than the purported $300bn USD (as reported by Time via Bloomberg, october 24, 2019) that would need to be invested to limit the worst of the effects. ( 77% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by kallman on 2020-01-02; known on 2031-01-01.

Cascadia megathrust earthquake (of magnitude 8+) to hit Seattle before 2030 ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2031-01-01.

US will ally with Iran by 2030 – Alex Lightman ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-29; known on 2031-01-01.

There will be a Second US civil war before 2031 ( 2% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2031-01-02.

4% of my 2031 savings (including rental property value) will be greater than my 2031 expenses ( 65% confidence )

Created by trishume on 2016-04-07; known on 2031-01-16.

At 30, I will have never been married. ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by ejh3141 on 2020-02-20; known on 2031-02-04.

I will be awesome in 20 years. ( 49% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by zwsaz1 on 2011-03-22; known on 2031-03-22.

Either mean, median or mode truck drivers in either globally or US will make <= .027 BTC/hr or equivalent ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-04-26; known on 2031-04-26.

Will there be at least another 3 episodes of the Hello Internet podcast? The Podcast had a rather irregular schedule, but there hasn't been another episode since the 28th February 2020. ( 42% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Morpheus on 2021-05-14; known on 2031-05-15.

If I were to learn a new undergraduate level math subject, I'd choose to employ an AI system over a paid tutor (from Sam Altman's interview with Ezra Klein: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/11/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-sam-altman.html). ( 25% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.

I prefer speaking an AI system to a human for medical advice (from Sam Altman's interview with Ezra Klein: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/11/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-sam-altman.html). ( 30% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.

I would prefer speaking to an AI system over a human for legal advice (from Sam Altman's interview with Ezra Klein: https://www.nytimes.com/2021/06/11/podcasts/transcript-ezra-klein-interviews-sam-altman.html). ( 35% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-06-27; known on 2031-06-27.

The appearance of complex numbers in quantum mechanics has something to do with information propagating backwards through time regarding constraints on which possible world(s) may obtain. This is related to getting bits of Chaitin's omega by observing app ( 1% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by Will Newsome on 2011-09-24; known on 2031-09-24.

S identifies as vegetarian by 15 ( 38% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by penten on 2016-10-31; known on 2031-10-31.

The cure for cancer will be released to the world. ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by amandopando805 on 2021-11-06; known on 2031-11-06.

I will successfully commit suicide in the next 10 years ( 1% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Tuxedage on 2021-11-02; known on 2031-11-16.

Caffeine will not be the primary stimulant (measured by daily users) ( 19% confidence; 8 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-12-13; known on 2031-12-13.

In 20 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2031-12-28.

Chocolate a rare luxury by 2032. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-25; known on 2032-01-01.

By 2032, it will be generally accepted among neuroscientists that the brain substantially relies on non-quantum substrate-dependent computations. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sty.silver on 2022-02-26; known on 2032-01-01.

Over the next 20 years loop quantum gravity will dominate the efforts to reconcile Relativity with Quantum Mechanics. ( 50% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-11-29; known on 2032-01-01.

No human will visit the moon from 2012 to 2032 ( 52% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-08-27; known on 2032-01-01.

In 2032, solar power will be at least 150% of the second highest energy source of us consumption (in kwh). ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-07-28; known on 2032-01-01.

Russia will not have established moon bases by 2032 ( 70% confidence; 19 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-25; known on 2032-01-01.

“HIV will be curable — either through better anti retroviral drugs or through gene therapy” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 45% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

“Newspapers as we know them today will either not exist, or no longer print ink on paper” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 71% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

“Half of Facebook, Google, Apple, Microsoft, Hewlett-Packard, Nokia, Sony and IBM will no longer exist” —Charles Stross ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

“gigabit wireless connection speeds will be the norm outside the home or office” by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

Genetically-modified-crop-caused famine by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

“Moore's Law will have played out by 2032” —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

Cultured mammalian meat commercially available by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 68% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

All freshwater fisheries fed on processed jellyfish by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

“the trend towards urbanization continues” 2012-2032 —Charles Stross ( 85% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

Average global age higher in 2032 than 2012 —Charles Stross ( 80% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

“Cars will probably mostly be plug-in hybrids” in 2032 —Charles Stross ( 68% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.