Automated driving infrastructure in First World; majority of new cars large/completely automated. —Charles Stross ( 62% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

Pilot net-energy fusion plant online by 2032 —Charles Stross ( 49% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

“oil will still be available and planes will still be burning it.” —Charles Stross ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

Climate change denial completely discredited – “about as respectable as Lysenkoism is today” —Charles Stross ( 55% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

Charles Stross will survive to 2032 ( 71% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

Total Chinese rice production to be less in 2032 than in 2012 ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-01-14; known on 2032-01-01.

By 2030, small nuclear power plants (around 60MW) were “popping up” around the USA. ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-03; known on 2032-01-01.

US bicycle mode share will be over 1% in the 2030 Census ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-07-19; known on 2032-01-01.

Commercially sold driverless/self-driving cars in at least one OECD country by January 1 2032. ( 92% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-04-28; known on 2032-01-01.

Robin Hanson: In 2032, less than 50% of cars on the road will completely autonomous. (to be assessed by asking an unbiased expert if the answer is not obvious) ( 54% confidence; 20 wagers; 11 comments )

Created by Porejide on 2012-02-18; known on 2032-02-17.

Rothfuss's The Doors of Stone (bk3) will end with the recounting of Kvothe's life up to opening the inn, with no further adventures. ( 19% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-05; known on 2032-02-18.

I will be using Bash in 20 years ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.

I will be using Firefox in 20 years ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.

I will be using Emacs in 20 years ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.

I will be using Linux in 20 years ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2012-06-28; known on 2032-06-28.

A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2032 to accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare. ( 3% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by SmoothPorcupine on 2015-10-18; known on 2032-07-16.

A predictive intelligence will emerge in the year 2031 to publicly accuse me of engaging in prediction-based warfare. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by SmoothPorcupine on 2015-10-18; known on 2032-07-16.

Within 20 years the old river control structure will be intentionally disbanded by the US government or its successor and not replaced in any way, allowing the Mississippi to change course. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-08-29; known on 2032-08-29.

Within 20 years the old river control structure will be destroyed, or fail* for reasons other than intentional decommissioning by the us government or its replacement. *The structure will be considered failed if for a month an average of 50% or greater la ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by beo_shaffer on 2012-08-29; known on 2032-08-29.

At least one of Sasha and Malia Obama will say they have or had an eating disorder. ( 29% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by NancyLebovitz on 2012-09-04; known on 2032-09-04.

No Honduras R.E.D. will have >$100M GDP within 20 years. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by gwern on 2012-09-24; known on 2032-09-24.

Aaron Simmons will be elected President of the United States of America. ( 17% confidence; 6 wagers )

Created by Messias on 2013-08-01; known on 2032-11-02.

Kanye West elected President by 2032 — Scott Adams ( 0% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by HonoreDB on 2015-09-23; known on 2032-11-10.

The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be <50 years old at his inauguration. ( 22% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.

The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be 50-60 years old at his inauguration. ( 44% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.

The winner of the 2032 US presidential election will be >60 years old at his inauguration. ( 40% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2013-01-11; known on 2032-11-10.

An open atheist will be elected US President within 20 years. ( 8% confidence; 17 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-14; known on 2032-11-10.

Bharat's Department of Atomic Energy (DAE) target:63000 MWe by the year 2032. ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-06; known on 2032-12-31.

A neuron-level computational model of a specific human brain will be implemented successfully within 20 years (2032). ( 51% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Aticper on 2012-10-24; known on 2032-12-31.

No GOP-candidate President elected by the Electoral College before 2033 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-17; known on 2033-01-01.

'Islands in the Net' style skin-browning agent made possible through PCR ( 53% confidence )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-31; known on 2033-01-01.

South Africa will be a smoking ruin similar to Zimbabwe by 2033. Specifically, the price of gold in Rand will have risen at least 20-fold (current price 12,857.80 rand / oz) , and unemployment will be at least 40% currently 23%. ( 32% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2013-12-06; known on 2033-01-01.

The Roman Catholic Church ordains female priests before 2033. ( 18% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2033-01-01.

Native Americans kidnap and torture at least 400 US citizens over 2017-2032 ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2033-01-01.

Unmanned aerial mapping will revolutionize archaeology (as evidenced by number of published papers) within the next 20 years. ( 69% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2012-08-01; known on 2033-01-01.

At least one of the Gemini astronauts will become a centenarian ( 40% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2033-01-01.

At least one state will ban contraceptives before 2032. ( 21% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2022-07-26; known on 2033-01-01.

“By March 25, 2033, there will be successful whole brain emulation.” ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-03-25; known on 2033-03-25.

“Over the next two decades scholarly research will show that the treatment effect of homeschooling is either neutral or positive relative to government-operated schools” – Art Carden ( 67% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-06-24; known on 2033-04-01.

Russia to lose at least one submarine at sea due to combat or accident by May 1, 2033. ( 51% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2023-04-27; known on 2033-05-01.

As of when this prediction was made, the US government routinely saves a recording of a majority of domestic phone calls and emails, as per www.overcomingbias.com/2013/05/us-record-all-calls.html. ( 45% confidence; 8 wagers; 17 comments )

Created by ygert on 2013-05-08; known on 2033-05-08.

I will within 20 years have a view of Less Wrong and its associated community as having ran into essentially the same failings that the Objectivists ran into. ( 22% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2013-07-09; known on 2033-07-09.

A manned flyby of Venus will happen in the next 20 years ( 6% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by anotherfate on 2013-07-25; known on 2033-07-25.

My directness in communication will increase proportional to the amount of life expereinces that I have. I will also be less tolerant towards people trying to be dishonest for the sake of being polite. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Prownie on 2023-08-24; known on 2033-08-24.

Human extinction caused by AI before my 40th birthday. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-02-28; known on 2033-10-10.

Edward Snowden will be U.S. President before 2034 ( 0% confidence; 27 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-12-10; known on 2034-01-01.

Jill Stein will be President of the United States any time before 2034 ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-08-21; known on 2034-01-01.

A simulated human mind with super intelligence will not happen before 2034 ( 92% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by qznc on 2020-05-25; known on 2034-01-01.

“In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers.” Russ Roberts ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-07-11; known on 2034-01-01.