Humans will land on the moon between 2028 and 2033. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by pranomostro on 2018-09-25; known on 2034-01-01.

“In the next 20 years driverless cars will be a reality, there won't be any cab drivers.” Russ Roberts ( 64% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2014-07-11; known on 2034-01-01.

By January 1, 2034, at least 5 superconducting lines to be active parts of one of the major American electric grids. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2034-01-01.

There will be superintelligence by 2033. — Nick Bostrom ( 28% confidence; 7 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by Pablo on 2012-10-06; known on 2034-01-01.

There will be driverless taxis available for use by the public in at least one US city in 2033. ( 82% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by qap on 2013-10-13; known on 2034-01-01.

By May 2034, the fraction of Catholic masses that are in Latin (as opposed to the vernacular) will be the same as or higher than it is now in 2014. ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-05-05; known on 2034-05-01.

Caplan will win his bet with Nye on Indian fertility ( 63% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2012-08-30; known on 2034-06-01.

In 2033, more than 5% of deaths in China will be the result of state-mandated involuntary euthanasia. ( 1% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Omid on 2013-08-22; known on 2034-06-01.

I will have taken over at least one country by 2035. ( 0% confidence; 13 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by Anubhav on 2012-02-13; known on 2035-01-01.

At least 45% of electric power worldwide will be due to solar power by 2035. ( 18% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-05-03; known on 2035-01-01.

Ralph Nader will hit age 100 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2035-01-01.

A general factoring algorithm better than the number field sieve by 2035 ( 65% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2035-01-01.

Magic to return on a large scale (like in Shadowrun) by January 1, 2035. ( 0% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-12; known on 2035-01-01.

Switzerland to decommission all nuclear reactor by 2035. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2011-09-25; known on 2035-01-01.

“There will be a Chernobyl National Park by 2035.” ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.

Flying cars will become the dominant form of transportation in at least one major world city by 2035. ( 8% confidence; 31 wagers; 12 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2035-01-01.

The solar cell efficiency record will be at 60% by January 1st, 2035. ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Mati on 2014-12-06; known on 2035-01-01.

The Greek military or goverment will not sign any document of surrender, pay reparations or lose any territory as a result of military action within the next two decades. ( 86% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by Madplatypus on 2015-07-12; known on 2035-01-01.

At least one substantial improvement on the finite group isomorphism problem will occur before 2035. ( 95% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2014-12-19; known on 2035-01-01.

AIDS vaccine by 2035 —Tachi Yamada ( 57% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

By 2035, the Voynich Manuscript will be determined to be written in an archaic form of a language or dialect currently spoken in Italy. ( 23% confidence; 9 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-24; known on 2035-01-01.

By 2035 there will be at least one confirmed person who has lived to 140. ( 4% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-10-15; known on 2035-01-01.

By January 1, 2035 superconductor with critical temperature at least 200 K at 1 atmosphere of pressure will be discovered. ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2015-08-27; known on 2035-01-01.

“In 2035, there is thus a good prospect that Britain will be the most populous (our birth rate will be one the highest in Europe), dynamic and richest European country…” —Will Hutton ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

>50% of all electrical power worldwide will be a result of nuclear energy by 2035 ( 37% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jesselevine on 2015-05-04; known on 2035-01-01.

OpenAI will announce that it's hit its 100X returns cap for an investor (or investor round). ( 0% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2019-05-22; known on 2035-01-01.

Facebook will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 21% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.

US helium production will crash to near-zero in 25 years. —Robert Richardson ( 51% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-20; known on 2035-01-01.

E-books won't displace paper ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by livshitsrussia on 2018-04-26; known on 2035-01-01.

[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2025 ( 0% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.

Determining if a knot is unknotted will be shown to be unconditionally in NP intersect co-NP by 2035. ( 58% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-04-17; known on 2035-01-01.

[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2030 ( 8% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.

[Conditional on Elon Musk not becoming impaired cognitively, at least one person will depart for Mars with the intent/expectation of not returning, by ] January 1, 2035 ( 23% confidence; 8 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by WilliamKiely on 2020-01-23; known on 2035-01-01.

Issa will get a PhD ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2018-05-12; known on 2035-01-01.

Coal burning will amount for less than 5% of the energy consumed in Germany by the year 2035 ( 25% confidence )

Created by omni on 2021-07-23; known on 2035-01-01.

Second Falklands War before 2035 ( 21% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2012-02-07; known on 2035-01-01.

Professional sports still banning many performance-enhancing drugs. —Mike Lee ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

Live commercial sports broadcasts in holograms by 2035. —Mike Lee ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

'In 25 years, I bet there'll be many products we'll be allowed to buy but not see advertised – the things the government will decide we shouldn't be consuming because of their impact on healthcare costs or the environment but that they can't muster the po ( 40% confidence; 6 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-01-03; known on 2035-01-01.

“One or more space agencies will send a manned mission to Mars by 2035.” ( 35% confidence; 23 wagers; 7 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-02; known on 2035-01-01.

We will not have a Singularity or intelligence explosion of the sort predicted by Yudkowsky in 'The Hanson-Yudkowsky AI-Foom Debate – LessWrong' by 2035 ( 72% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by johnmichaelbridge on 2022-06-22; known on 2035-01-01.

“By the year 2035 non-invasive devices will allow us to interface with the internet (including accessing information in a similar sense to recalling memories) using electro-stimulus from neuron signals.” ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gwern on 2010-08-01; known on 2035-01-01.

LinkedIn will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 7% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.

By 2035, the general consensus will be that the US federal government orchestrated the 9/11 attacks. ( 13% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-02; known on 2035-01-01.

Google+ will be the most popular social network (by montly unique visitors) at the end of 2034. ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Mati on 2014-04-28; known on 2035-01-01.

Mathematician Shinichi Mochizuki's proof on the ABC Conjecture will be verified to be valid by 2035. ( 22% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-11; known on 2035-01-01.

Greater than 25% of US utility companies that exist as of 2015 will file for bankruptcy by 2035 ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by btrettel on 2015-08-16; known on 2035-01-01.

“there is a 100% chance you will see a private corporation go to war with a small country, and win, within twenty years.” – Scott Adams ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by rebellionkid on 2015-01-13; known on 2035-01-13.

At least one Apollo astronaut will see man land on Mars ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2035-01-16.