Upcoming Predictions
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Created by sobet on 2022-05-08; known on 2026-05-08.
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3eba1fee3af900bb58ce7e70d8962193b9775e8293cb5a29d91bd73ee814796e - ( 78% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by sobet on 2022-05-21; known on 2026-05-08.
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In the wake of more internet censorship, an auction site that runs on tokens you can only buy with cryptocurrency will open, and become popular enough that even I learn about it. ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by kallman on 2021-05-17; known on 2026-05-15.
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I in 3 years ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2023-07-01; known on 2026-05-22.
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By mid-2026, Iraq will have a lower 'Political Rights and Civic Voice' rating from Freedom House than it does now. ( 63% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-29; known on 2026-06-01.
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Frcr 2026 ( 60% confidence )
Created by kandeel on 2023-06-16; known on 2026-06-16.
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Matt Gaetz (Matthew Louis Gaetz II) (born 7 May 1982) gets arrested within five (5) years ( 99% confidence )
Created by two2thehead on 2021-06-18; known on 2026-06-18.
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Personal – In 5 years I will go back to school for a grad program ( 50% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2026-06-28.
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The first “worldwide classroom” will be setup on the Internet and will revolutionize learning potentials by double the rate of college bound graduates by 2026. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-06-30.
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Treasury to instruct the Fed to revalue U.S. gold deposits at $8,000/oz or more before 3Q26 ( 35% confidence )
Created by jacobgreenleaf on 2023-10-23; known on 2026-07-01.
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By this time in 2026, there will be a consensus among neuroscientists (>50%) that quantum mechanics plays a non-trivial role in understanding consciousness. ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by RoryS on 2016-07-18; known on 2026-07-18.
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Pastor Kenneth Glasgow’s pastor network will play an influential role in the upcoming legislative sessions (for some definition of “influential” that Open Philanthropy Project is comfortable with in retrospect) ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-08-01.
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https://www.smbc-comics.com/comic/2006-08-13 is hilarious ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by wizzwizz4 on 2020-08-10; known on 2026-08-13.
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Java va a desaparecer o perder el mercado, segun Diego de makerlab. ( 70% confidence )
Created by jhairguz.t@gmail.com on 2018-09-23; known on 2026-09-23.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Brighter Green a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2026-10-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Brighter Green a major success ( 5% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2026-10-01.
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Brexit will cause hundreds of thousands of deaths from mass starvation in the UK —Charlie Stross ( 2% confidence; 19 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by gwern on 2016-10-07; known on 2026-10-07.
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CERN Faster than light neutrinos will be confirmed. and there will be new unified theories expanding Einstein's general relativity theory with a limit on some other measure rather than speed of light. ( 16% confidence; 12 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by anandjeyahar on 2011-10-09; known on 2026-10-09; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2013-08-31.
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Socrates1024's Dockerfile scripts still work 10 years from now ( 31% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-18; known on 2026-10-18.
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The tech will exist and be relatively safe for media to be uploaded directly into the human brain by 2026. ( 14% confidence; 13 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by freyley on 2009-10-20; known on 2026-10-20; judged unknown by freyley on 2009-10-21.
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Timbuktu burned to the ground/leveled by group loyal to dalwa al islamyya ( 44% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-24; known on 2026-10-25.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-11-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to World Animal Protection a major success ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-11-01.
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China will enter a recession within the next 5 years ( 8% confidence )
Created by Tuxedage on 2021-11-02; known on 2026-11-16.
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More families in north america are single income, two partners, raising children than dual income with/without children/other arrangements ( 50% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2026-11-28.
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A Mars colony will be established in 2026. It will be an International establishment. ( 4% confidence; 20 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2026-11-30.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Green Monday a success ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2026-12-01.
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We will have a second child within 10 years ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-09; known on 2026-12-09.
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Climate research (global warming) will have a replication crisis ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by hedges on 2016-12-09; known on 2026-12-10.
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International Air Transport Association's (IATA) updated passenger growth forecast, predicts Bharat will displace Britain as the third-largest market by 2026. ( 100% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-02; known on 2026-12-25.
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Since 2001, the total number of low-income countries has nearly halved to 34, as 31 graduated to middle-income status. By 2026, another 31 will graduate, leaving only 3 countries in low income status. ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-15; known on 2026-12-25.
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Due to Bharat's industrialization prices will boom in an exact replay of what happened in 2001-11 commodity bull market driven by Zhongguo. Commodities prices, as measured by the Continuous Commodity Index (CCI), will rise at least 275% since the start ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2026-12-31.
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By 2026 we will be technically capable of fixing arbitrary single-gene disorders – sickle cell anaemia, Huntington's, cystic fibrosis, Tay-Sachs, muscular dystrophy… – in living humans, with close to zero risk of severe complications. ( 34% confidence; 18 wagers; 11 comments )
Created by jasticE on 2016-01-08; known on 2026-12-31.
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Serial killer found to be operating in Thunder Bay in 2017, causing at least 1 death in Thunder Bay in 2017 ( 49% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-05-26; known on 2026-12-31.
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US will have universal health care system by 2026 ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by amadeu on 2018-11-12; known on 2026-12-31.
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Wireless electricity is ubiquitous in 2026 ( 24% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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The United States of Africa is established by 2026 ( 3% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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Construction of the Sagrada Família is complete in 2026 ( 21% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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Contact with the Voyager probes is lost by 2026 ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2010-11-11; known on 2027-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a major success ( 34% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to Animal Welfare Standards Project a success ( 60% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-29; known on 2027-01-01.
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I will visit LessWrong once a year until 2027 ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-20; known on 2027-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a success ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-01-01.
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Bitcoin was designed by a group of mathematicians as a side project while working for the NSA. ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-31; known on 2027-01-01.
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I will use PredictionBook at least once a year until 2027 ( 33% confidence )
Created by wolfish_wrath on 2019-07-19; known on 2027-01-01.
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Open Philanthropy Project will consider its 2016 grant to support the work of Professor Deborah Cao a major success ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2017-08-30; known on 2027-01-01.
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rapamycin to be demonstrated to increase average lifespan in dogs by 2026 ( 70% confidence )
Created by InquilineKea on 2016-05-21; known on 2027-01-01.
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'The cost per watt of solar PV has dropped to below $1' by 2027 ( 53% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gwern on 2011-05-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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Fewer than 30% of the US Population self-identify as Christians. http://www.pewforum.org/2015/05/12/americas-changing-religious-landscape/ ( 19% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-26; known on 2027-01-01.
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SpaceX Starship to land on moon by end of 2026. ( 51% confidence; 6 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-04-16; known on 2027-01-01; judged unknown by Jayson Virissimo on 2021-05-04.