Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Non-test SpaceX rocket will explode in 2017, excluding explosions during controlled descent or landing of reusable stages ( 55% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Donald Trump is still President of the United States at the end of 2017 UTC ( 85% confidence; 30 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-01-29; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will not watch another episode of Billions until 2018 ( 99% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-03-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Before 2018 I will put Persona 5 on my short list of favorite single-player games ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-06; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Conditional on using computers by the end of the 2017, I will still be using org-mode to organize the stuff I need to do ( 82% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-12; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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Before 2018, Bret Weinstein will be banned (even temporarily) from Patreon for “hate speech” ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will be employed (excluding self-employment) at some point before 2018 ( 40% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-06-19; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-01.
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I will pass my L exam (again), and allow it to expire (again). ( 80% confidence )
Created by kallman on 2015-08-22; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by kallman on 2017-12-31.
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Princeton researchers: Facebook will lose 80% of its users by end of 2017 ( 15% confidence; 14 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2014-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Mati on 2017-12-31.
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I will complete my PhD by 2017-12-31. ( 63% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by btrettel on 2015-04-27; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by btrettel on 2017-12-31.
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EAUW has a meeting fall quarter 2017 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-01-27; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-12-31.
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I am still using PredictionBook in 12 months (at least 5 predictions in December 2017) ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-22; known on 2017-12-30; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: on Dec 31 my bmi will be 18.6 – 19.5 inclusive. ( 30% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: I will have a baby (or be pregnant). ( 3% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: I will have >100 new (resolved) predictions on PredictionBook. ( 70% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: I will post 0 blog posts ( 44% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: on Dec 31 I will still be living in boston ( 92% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: on Dec 31 I will consider myself more comfortable with R than python ( 12% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: I will still be a vegetarian or pescetarian at the end of the year ( 92% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: my eye issue will be noticeably worse. ( 52% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: my eye issue will be resolved. ( 20% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: on Dec 31 my bmi will be 19.6 – 20.5 inclusive. ( 50% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: on Dec 31 I will still be working at my current company. ( 77% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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2017 predictions: I will use work time tracking through Dec 31. ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2016-12-31; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2017-12-31.
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Bitcoin will end the year above $400. ( 84% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by timmartin on 2017-12-31.
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Ether (ETH) will be worth at least 0.2BTC by the end of 2017. ( 35% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by shm on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by sebnow on 2017-12-31.
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No major terrorist attack (> 100 victims) in the U.S. by the end of 2017 ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by blobfish on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-31.
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Trump silences twitter users from talking about climate change ( 17% confidence; 5 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-01-25; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-31.
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60 Bluechip Cryptocurrencies with individual market caps of over $100million would have existed by this point ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Nve on 2017-06-07; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Nve on 2017-12-31.
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Raqqa will remain under the control of ISIL. ( 58% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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Venezuela defaults on its debt ( 51% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-08-26; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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AMZN is under 1000 per share through 2017 ( 75% confidence )
Created by hensen on 2016-11-18; known on 2017-12-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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No terrorist attack causes >400 deaths in the less developed world in 2017 (HDI < 0.8). ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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China's Real GDP Growth between 2015-1017 will be below the United State's. ( 12% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2015-03-24; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-29.
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Wade will have more than 3 alcoholic drinks on the 27th. ( 45% confidence )
Created by Hindenburg on 2017-12-23; known on 2017-12-28; judged wrong by Hindenburg on 2017-12-28.
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US real GDP growth rate for 2017 will be under 2.2% ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-20; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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c0rw1n “there are >= 10k universities in the US” ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by c0rw11 on 2017-12-14; known on 2017-12-14; judged right by bendini on 2018-02-15.
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UK will default on its debt. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Bharatnet is the world’s largest rural broadband connectivity project. 600 million rural citizens of Bharat will be linked across 250 000 Gram Panchayats(village) through optical fibre. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-15; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Land a robot on the Moon by 2017 for the Google Lunar X prize —Rahul Narayan, CEO of Team Indus, Bharat ( 59% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-18; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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France will default on its debt. ( 14% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-06; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Finland will be the first nation to introduce nationwide basic income by December 2017. ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-07; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Universal Secondary Education by 2017 for Bharat.Gross Enrolment Ratio, which is at 78.51% will be at least 97%. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-09-10; known on 2017-12-27; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Bharat real gdp growth rate at 8 % in 2017 ( 93% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-07; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Bharat will pass the UK on the IMF's ranking of world's biggest economies. Bharat will be the 5th biggest economy at GDP current prices in the world in 2017. ( 54% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-05-13; known on 2017-12-27; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-27.
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Pineapple Fund donation to (another, not including SENS) widely-recognized EA charity by 1/1/19 ( 66% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ccokeefe on 2017-12-21; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by ccokeefe on 2017-12-27.
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Lula ou Dilma será preso / presa por conta da Lava-Jato ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by guisamora on 2017-03-24; known on 2017-12-27; judged wrong by guisamora on 2017-12-27.
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Bitcoin at 10,000,000$/BTC (or equivalent in VEF or other currency) on any market where trading occurs. ( 6% confidence; 16 wagers; 31 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-06-10; known on 2019-12-31; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-19.
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Cmydd gsvv gbsdo k lvyqzycd drkd bopoboxmoc wkdobskv lbyeqrd ez sx wi zycd lopybo dro oxn yp dro iokb ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by bendini on 2017-11-06; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by bendini on 2017-12-27.
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My friend will be pregnant before Christmas 2017 ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-12-25; judged right by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-12-26.