Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will lose 5 lbs by the end of September (updated: wrote kg, but meant lbs…oops) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-07-25; known on 2017-10-01; judged wrong by michelle.rintjema@bellroy.com on 2017-12-26.
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Clear biomarkers will be detected in the atmosphere of more than one “Super Earth” exoplanet by Christmas, 2017. ( 18% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-11; known on 2017-12-26; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-12-26.
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US economy will be in recession by 2017. ( 41% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-12; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-25.
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eros.vision will have < 100000 monthly active users at december 23-rd ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by crabman on 2017-07-13; known on 2017-12-23; judged right by crabman on 2017-12-23.
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At least one person will die before 2018 from injuries produced during a VR experience, and this will be publicly known. ( 63% confidence; 11 wagers; 12 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2016-05-17; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-23.
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Created by Verres on 2017-12-21; known on 2017-12-23; judged right by Verres on 2017-12-22.
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Rey was a child trained at Luke's Jedi Academy. ( 18% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Rey is a reincarnated Anakin Skywalker ( 2% confidence; 9 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Rey is a child of Luke Skywalker ( 45% confidence; 10 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Rey is a Kenobi ( 10% confidence; 7 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2016-01-01; known on 2018-06-02; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2017-12-21.
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Our car will need to be taken to the garage for a repair at least once in the next 12 months ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-12-21; judged wrong by penten on 2017-12-21.
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I will have a new phone in 12 months (current MI3W) ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by penten on 2016-12-21; known on 2017-12-21; judged right by penten on 2017-12-21.
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At least one year 2016-2019, GiveWell weakens its recommendation of AMF and cites population ethics concerns as a major reason. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-09-22; known on 2019-12-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-12-21.
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By 2018 I will have deadlifted 5 plates (495lb). ( 20% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-02; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2017-12-21.
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My baby will be crawling by the end of 2017. ( 90% confidence )
Created by taryneast on 2017-12-18; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by taryneast on 2017-12-19.
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My baby will be crawling by his first birthday ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2017-12-18; known on 2018-03-31; judged right by taryneast on 2017-12-19.
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Bitcoin will be worth $1500 us by December 2017. ( 81% confidence; 14 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by nortil on 2017-04-10; known on 2017-12-15; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-19.
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My baby will be crawling within the month ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by taryneast on 2017-11-18; known on 2017-12-18; judged wrong by taryneast on 2017-12-18.
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Within the three week period starting after three months after a public launch of LessWrong 2.0, the EA Forum will still have more unique new non-spam posts than LessWrong 2.0, not counting cross-posts that are originally posted somewhere else first. ( 71% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-08-16; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by peter_hurford on 2017-12-16.
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Iraqi government will liberate Mosul, their most important stronghold from Islamic State. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-12-29; known on 2017-12-16; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-16.
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“Disney will buy Magic Leap by the end of 2017 for upwards of $25 billion.” ( 19% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Ben Doherty on 2016-06-30; known on 2017-12-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2017-12-16.
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On January 1st, 2018, my GoodReads profile will say I read at least 100 books in 2017 (https://www.goodreads.com/author/show/3093249.Pablo_Stafforini). ( 76% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Pablo on 2017-06-15; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Pablo on 2017-12-15.
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c has a crafts group ( 18% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-19; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-14.
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c0rw1n “there are >= 10k universities in the US” ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by c0rw11 on 2017-12-14; known on 2017-12-14; judged right by bendini on 2018-02-15.
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c0rw1n “there are >= 10k universities in the US” ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by c0rw11 on 2017-12-14; known on 2017-12-14; judged right by bendini on 2018-02-15.
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c0rw1n “there are >= 10k universities in the US” ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by c0rw11 on 2017-12-14; known on 2017-12-14; judged right by bendini on 2018-02-15.
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c0rw1n “there are >= 10k universities in the US” ( 49% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by c0rw11 on 2017-12-14; known on 2017-12-14; judged right by bendini on 2018-02-15.
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I will get to Gold Division in League of Legends before the end of season 5. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2015-04-15; known on 2015-11-30; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-12-13.
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Politics, US – Roy Moore steps down prior to the special election to fill Jeff Sessions' former senate seat. ( 9% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2017-12-13; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-12-13.
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Roy Stewart Moore drops out of the Alabama senate race ( 23% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-11-13; known on 2018-01-05; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-12-13.
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The United States Senate Alabama election will be won by Roy Moore ( 53% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-12-04; known on 2017-12-25; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2017-12-13.
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Roy Moore to win senate special election ( 65% confidence; 10 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2017-11-27; known on 2017-12-15; judged wrong by objclone on 2017-12-13.
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[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Something other than a Mugabe restoration, an army-supported takeover, or unrest/civil war ( 10% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2017-12-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-12.
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[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Mr and Mrs Mugabe and/or other factions dispute power with the generals; violence erupts, no single clear de facto leadership in the country ( 22% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2017-12-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-12.
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[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Coup succeeds; Mugabe either remains de jure president but under house arrest, or agrees to gracefully leave. Generals install a new de facto ruler ─ probably but not necessarily Mnangagwa ( 57% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2017-12-17; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-12.
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BTC price lower on Dec 11 00:00 than on Dec 9 00:00 PST. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2017-12-09; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by Michael Dickens on 2017-12-12.
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Politics, US – Mike Flynn is indicted before the end of 2017. ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by RobertLumley on 2017-12-11.
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eBay, Inc. will spin off, sell, or shut down another one of its business units before 2023. ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2015-09-26; known on 2023-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2017-12-11.
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As of January 1, 2018, there will be at least five songs with over a billion streams each on Spotify. ( 62% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-04-22; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-12-11.
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s is running an old youtube-dl ( 73% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-08-31; known on 2017-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-09-01.
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There will be at least one planeswalker in the upcoming MTG set Unstable ( 99% confidence )
Created by peter_hurford on 2017-08-25; known on 2017-12-08; judged right by peter_hurford on 2017-12-08.
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BTC Will fall below 12k before dec 8th ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-12-06; known on 2017-12-08; judged wrong by leftblank on 2017-12-08.
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Reliance Jio 4G data plans will not cost more than 100 INR/GB in 2017. ( 80% confidence )
Created by volis on 2016-09-01; known on 2017-07-16; judged right by volis on 2017-12-08.
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Les Miles will be named head coach of the Tennessee Volunteers ( 75% confidence )
Created by RobertLumley on 2017-12-04; known on 2018-01-01; judged wrong by RobertLumley on 2017-12-07.
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There will be more DUI crashes (injury and non-injury) in Austin, TX for the Labor Day 2016 period than the same period in 2015. ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by unexpectedEOF on 2016-08-29; known on 2017-01-01; judged right by unexpectedEOF on 2017-12-07.
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The 2017 TIME Person of the Year will be related to #MeToo, Harvey Weinstein, and/or the broader anti-sexual harassment movement. ( 45% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-26; known on 2017-12-07; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-12-06.
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La at least 2 prints ( 91% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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print m ( 19% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $64,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
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Facebook will match at least $1,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.