Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[This person will at some point be de jure president of Zimbabwe:] Emmerson Mnangagwa ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-24.
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Taylor Swift's Look What You Made Me Do will reach 1 billion views on YouTube in fewer days than Adele's Hello. ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-09-08; known on 2018-02-02; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-24.
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Despacito will reach 4 billion YouTube video views on or before January 1, 2018, and will be the fastest song to have ever reached 4 billion views at the time it reaches that milestone. ( 88% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2017-07-30; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-23.
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Re: Peace Prize. Erdogan will not be so honoured. ( 64% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by technicalities on 2017-11-21.
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Merkel will win the Nobel Peace Prize, with Abdullah II of Jordan and others. ( 56% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by technicalities on 2017-01-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged wrong by technicalities on 2017-11-21.
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“At least one Asian movie will exceed $400 mn in worldwide box office gross before the end of the decade.” —blogospheroid ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-08-24; known on 2020-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-21.
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I will have dropped piano by this date ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by crabman on 2017-10-11; known on 2017-11-11; judged wrong by crabman on 2017-11-20.
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Less than 300 people will die of Ebola within the fifty United States by January 1, 2018 —Bryan Caplan ( 88% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by qznc on 2014-10-21; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by bendini on 2017-11-20.
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The year end ATP number one for 2017 will be Roger Federer or Rafael Nadal ( 100% confidence )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-19; judged right by gurgus on 2017-11-20.
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Rafael Nadal will be the year end number one in 2017 ( 66% confidence )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-19; judged right by gurgus on 2017-11-20.
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Bitcoin: trades above 8k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 62% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-19.
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Banco Central do Brasil (BACEN) – Brasil's 2016 real economic growth rate will be -2.99%. ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-30; known on 2017-01-30; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16.
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Kim Jong Un is Supreme Leader of the Democratic People's Republic of Korea on November 15, 2017 ( 92% confidence; 22 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-27; known on 2017-11-16; judged right by PlacidPlatypus on 2017-11-16.
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Assuming the postal vote happens, the majority of the Australian public who vote will vote against gay marriage in the upcoming postal vote ( 41% confidence; 8 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gurgus on 2017-08-09; known on 2017-11-26; judged wrong by sjy on 2017-11-14.
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Ray shot Neal Gamby (Vice Principals Season 2) ( 42% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.
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Russell was involved in the Gamby shooting (not exclusive with Ray shooting) ( 20% confidence )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.
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A stereo thief shot Gamby ( 29% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.
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brown shot gamby ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by elephantower on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-12; judged wrong by elephantower on 2017-11-13.
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I will keep to my self-imposed rules on T for six months, without cheating, bending the rules, or making any exceptions under any circumstances. ( 88% confidence )
Created by pkfalu92 on 2017-05-01; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by pkfalu92 on 2017-11-11.
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I will read >15 books in 2017 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-01-01; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by splorridge on 2017-11-11.
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Trump comments about Eminem's rap about him within thirty days ( 42% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-10-11; known on 2017-11-10; judged wrong by two2thehead on 2017-11-10.
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Open Phil's evaluation of MIRI in 2018 will be more optimistic than it was in 2016 at the time of its grant writeup. ( 53% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2016-10-29; known on 2018-12-31; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2017-11-09.
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President Trump jailed ( 1% confidence; 23 wagers; 10 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-09; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2017-11-09.
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Personal, Business Interactions – Openreach engineer actually shows up at my property on 2017-11-09 between 8AM and 1PM per booking. ( 36% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-08; known on 2017-11-09; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-09.
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I am banned from Predictionbook ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-02.
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President Trump Dead/Impeached ( 7% confidence; 21 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-09; known on 2017-11-08; judged wrong by Tenobrus on 2017-11-09.
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[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] Both the 1x and 2x chains survive. ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-31; known on 2018-03-16; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-11-08.
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[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] The 1x/core/legacy fork is the sole surviving chain, and core does not double the block size. ( 43% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-31; known on 2018-03-16; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-08.
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[Outcome of the segwit2x fork in Nov 2017: ] The 2x fork is the sole surviving chain, or core doubles the block size. ( 17% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-31; known on 2018-03-16; judged wrong by lavalamp on 2017-11-08.
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I am banned from Predictionbook ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-02.
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I will be able to do a muscle up by end of October ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.
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I will be able to do a one armed pull up by the end of October ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.
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I will be able to pull up 50% of my body weight by the end of October ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by splorridge on 2017-03-10; known on 2017-10-31; judged wrong by splorridge on 2017-11-07.
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I am banned from Predictionbook ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 8 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-05-23; known on 2021-05-22; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2018-01-02.
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Business, US – Chariot's operating permit for the SF area is restored by the end of November 2017 ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-21; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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Business, US – Chariot's operating permit for the SF area is restored by the end of 2017-11-03 ( 40% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-21; known on 2017-11-04; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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Politics, EU – Carles Puigdemont arrested by police, or turns self in to police, before the end of 2017-11-19. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-11-20; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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Politics, EU – Carles Puigdemont arrested by police, or turns self in to police, before the end of 2017-11-05. ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-11-06; judged right by jbeshir on 2017-11-06.
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Bharat will Have 500 Million Internet Users By 2017 —Internet and Mobile Association of India (IAMAI) and KPMG ( 73% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-11-19; known on 2016-12-31; judged wrong by danielfilan on 2017-11-05.
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I will change once I go east (I fucking better!) ( 52% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2017-11-03; judged right by playablecharacter on 2017-11-03.
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I leave east coast disappointed, sad, filled with regret, not worth it, etc ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by playablecharacter on 2017-05-24; known on 2017-11-03; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2017-11-03.
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SpaceX will delay the initial launch of the Falcon Heavy past the end of November ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-10-03; known on 2017-11-30; judged right by Athrithalix on 2017-11-02.
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Bitcoin: trades above 7k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 67% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-02.
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Steve Bannon leaves the Trump Administration in 2017. ( 31% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-14; known on 2018-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-30.
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Donald Trump will not ride in the Queen's carriage during a visit to the UK in October 2017. ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2017-04-15; known on 2017-10-30; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2017-10-30.
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AFD will get >10% of votes in Germany's federal elections. ( 87% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by lukas11 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30.
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AFD will get <30% of votes in Germany's federal elections. ( 89% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by lukas11 on 2017-01-12; known on 2017-10-23; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Jared Kushner with a crime. ( 10% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge Michael Flynn with a crime. ( 10% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.
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Politics, US – Sealed charges brought by Mueller's investigation and approved before 2017-10-29 charge President Trump with a crime. ( 11% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-10-29; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2017-10-30.