Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
-
Facebook will match at least $2,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 86% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
-
Facebook will match at least $4,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 84% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
-
Facebook will match at least $8,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 81% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
-
Facebook will match at least $16,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 80% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
-
Facebook will match at least $32,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 74% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
-
Facebook will match at least $125,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 26% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
-
Facebook will match at least $250,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 7% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
-
Facebook will match at least $500,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
-
Facebook will match at least $1,000,000 in donations toward EA non-profits on #GivingTuesday ( 0% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
-
On GivingTuesday 2017, Facebook/Gates Foundation will increase their $2 million in matching funds after it runs out. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-27; known on 2018-11-29; judged wrong by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-05.
-
et shows mind change ( 18% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
-
a thinks astro legit ( 4% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
-
print m ( 19% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
-
print a ( 68% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
-
print n ( 30% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
-
print lu ( 9% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
-
print j/a 2 ( 7% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
-
print j/a ( 76% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
-
print la ( 93% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
-
party j ( 12% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
-
party c ( 68% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
-
party A ( 64% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
-
party l ( 91% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
-
get mail from pa ( 57% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged right by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
-
et gives example of changing mind ( 18% confidence )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05; known on 2017-12-05; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
-
C will get together with L by next new year. ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ZeitPolizei on 2015-07-20; known on 2016-01-01; judged wrong by ZeitPolizei on 2017-12-05.
-
The answer is “semantics” ( 70% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-12-04; known on 2017-12-04; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-12-04.
-
Amazon Web Services will introduce an m4 (or later generation “m” type instance) with more RAM and cores than its current biggest m4 machine, m4.16xlarge, before January 1, 2018. ( 50% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-01-02; judged right by Vipul Naik on 2017-12-02.
-
More than 1,000 US troops deployed in North Korea by December 2017 ( 9% confidence; 20 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-05-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
-
Trump approval rating above 40% (according to 538 all-polls) ( 14% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ioannes on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
-
Trump approval rating below 38% (according to 538 all-polls) ( 41% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-10-02; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by jamesrom on 2018-10-22.
-
No areas of the US Drought Monitor – California map (http://www.californiadrought.org/drought/current-conditions/) are colored “Extreme Drought” by December 1 2017 ( 20% confidence )
Created by ioannes on 2017-02-13; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
-
Kendrick's HUMBLE. youtube video has >1 billion views by December 1, 2017 ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by ioannes on 2017-04-14; known on 2017-12-01; judged wrong by ioannes on 2017-12-01.
-
Facebook will match 100% of my donations made between the hours of 8:00 AM EST and 8:10 AM EST on #GivingTuesday ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers; 13 comments )
Created by WilliamKiely on 2017-11-24; known on 2018-11-29; judged right by WilliamKiely on 2017-12-01.
-
Trump's Gallup approval be 39% or higher for August 1 – 3 (2017) ( 16% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by leo_gri on 2017-08-02; known on 2017-08-04; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-30.
-
Angela Merkel bleibt bis zur nächsten regulären Bundestagswahl 2017 im Amt ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Shevek on 2016-02-05; known on 2017-11-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-30.
-
Bharat's ranking in the World Bank's Ease of Doing Business report would be at least 105, up from 130 in 2016. ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2015-10-28; known on 2017-11-30; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-30.
-
There are mechanics in Las Vegas for electric cars ( 99% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30.
-
CarMax extended warranty doesn’t cover battery for electric cars ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30.
-
CarMax doesn’t negotiate is a better price ( 90% confidence )
Created by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30; known on 2017-12-01; judged right by Adam Zerner on 2017-11-30.
-
Bitcoin will reach USD 10k before 31/12/2017 ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Leohmarruda on 2017-11-23; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by Athrithalix on 2017-11-29.
-
North Korea will launch (or attempt to launch) a ballistic missile (any range) between 24th Sept 2017 and before the end of 2017 ( 72% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by two2thehead on 2017-09-24; known on 2018-01-05; judged right by two2thehead on 2017-11-29.
-
Bitcoin: trades above 10k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 38% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-29.
-
Japan to obtain >30% of its power from nuclear in 2016. ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by simplicio on 2013-01-18; known on 2017-02-01; judged wrong by kuudes on 2017-11-26.
-
Politics, Lebanon – Saad Hariri returns to Lebanon by the end of 2017-11-25. ( 45% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2017-11-11; known on 2017-11-26; judged right by kuudes on 2017-11-26.
-
Bitcoin: trades above 9k USD at GDAX at some point before the end of the year. ( 38% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by lavalamp on 2017-10-20; known on 2017-12-31; judged right by lavalamp on 2017-11-26.
-
Justin Bieber's “Sorry” will reach 3 billion views on YouTube before Psy's “Gangnam Style” will. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Vipul Naik on 2016-11-13; known on 2018-06-30; judged wrong by Vipul Naik on 2017-11-26.
-
Kahneman (or whoever controls his email) will give an actual response to the question I sent him via an email ( 50% confidence )
Created by crabman on 2017-11-25; known on 2017-12-26; judged right by crabman on 2017-11-25.
-
Salted__²ð~½)©çï>Û£ÆB˜¢ª©9ÝmàIŒ~gþ®ëÎÌakðÄä×h…Ho&rÕ4¤@^K@N›æJË >2gà,ai<ùå, ǬèÞ†ŸVÖß ç1ûǶ£7Ó›TiQÐèàc}^¬=8“Dò.u2 ( 59% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Stillvallight on 2016-11-20; known on 2017-11-20; judged wrong by AP107138 on 2017-11-25.
-
[Crisis in Zimbabwe] Generals back down; Mugabe is freed and goes back to de facto ruling the country. ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-16; known on 2017-12-17; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2017-11-24.