Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will spend at least four hours on February 12, 2021 (EST) on studying machine learning ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-12; known on 2022-02-13; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-15.
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COVID, UK – NHS recommends Vitamin D supplementation as a protective measure against coronavirus before deadline. ( 25% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2021-09-30; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-15.
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Finance, US – DTCC found guilty by any kind of court or regulator for misconduct relating to handling of “counterfeit” GameStop (GME) shares by deadline. ( 1% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-02-02; known on 2022-02-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-15.
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I will be divorced by the end of 2021. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-08; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-02-14.
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My paper will be accepted this time. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by fryolysis on 2022-01-03; known on 2022-02-15; judged wrong by fryolysis on 2022-02-13.
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World War 3 next year ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-07; known on 2022-02-06; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2022-02-13.
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Lil Nas X's debut album (not his EP) will peak at #1 on the Billboard 200 ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bendini on 2019-07-12; known on 2021-07-07; judged wrong by bendini on 2022-02-11.
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bitcoin worth 66k+ in a year ( 43% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-08; known on 2022-02-08; judged wrong by pdf on 2022-02-11.
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DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Valeria ( 50% confidence )
Created by pancakemouse on 2022-02-07; known on 2022-02-08; judged wrong by pancakemouse on 2022-02-08.
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In Weir's Artemis, ZAFO is a ebbz grzcrengher fhcrepbaqhpgbe. ( 65% confidence )
Created by Leo on 2022-02-07; known on 2022-02-21; judged wrong by Leo on 2022-02-07.
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[I will get married in] 2022 ( 78% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02; judged right by Leo on 2022-02-07.
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[I will get married in] 2021 ( 7% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Leo on 2021-08-12; known on 2024-01-02; judged wrong by Leo on 2022-02-07.
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DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Macarena ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by pancakemouse on 2022-02-05; known on 2022-02-06; judged wrong by pancakemouse on 2022-02-06.
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Apple stock prices will go over 170 after annual report is released ( 70% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by he666 on 2022-01-21; known on 2022-01-28; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-06.
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DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Agustina ( 60% confidence )
Created by pancakemouse on 2021-12-18; known on 2021-12-19; judged right by pancakemouse on 2022-02-05.
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[This semester I will fail] 2 courses ( 50% confidence )
Created by fryolysis on 2021-12-29; known on 2022-02-01; judged wrong by fryolysis on 2022-02-04.
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[This semester I will fail] no course ( 10% confidence )
Created by fryolysis on 2021-12-29; known on 2022-02-01; judged wrong by fryolysis on 2022-02-04.
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[This semester I will fail] 1 course ( 40% confidence )
Created by fryolysis on 2021-12-29; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by fryolysis on 2022-02-04.
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Rafael Nadal will win the Australian Open 2022. ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by chemotaxis101 on 2022-01-19; known on 2022-01-30; judged right by chemotaxis101 on 2022-02-04.
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Ich werde drei von fünf Tagen diese Woche vor dem Mensen in der Bib sein ( 80% confidence )
Created by Jeedo on 2022-01-30; known on 2022-02-06; judged right by Jeedo on 2022-02-03.
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I will exercise and study ML for at least 30 minutes on February 2 by 9pm EST ( 100% confidence )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-02; known on 2022-02-03; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-03.
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At least 120 people will apply for Effective Altruism @ GT's Spring 2022 seminar programs ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-02-05; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-12-05.
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At least 120 people will apply for Effective Altruism @ GT's Spring 2022 seminar programs ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-02-05; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-12-05.
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In-person learning at Emory will resume on January 31 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-02-02; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-02.
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Australia has 200,000 COVID cases a day by late January ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sjy on 2021-12-30; known on 2022-02-01; judged wrong by sjy on 2022-02-02.
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At least 120 people will apply for Effective Altruism @ GT's Spring 2022 seminar programs ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-02-05; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-12-05.
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Omicron will be the majority strain in the US by the end of January ( 95% confidence; 13 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-12-07; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-02-01.
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Average world temperature increases relative to 2020 as measured by NASA with Lowess smoothing (https://climate.nasa.gov/vital-signs/global-temperature/). ( 99% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by krazemon on 2022-02-01.
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Business, US – At close of trading on 2022-01-31, GameStop (GME) is worth less than 100 USD. ( 56% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-01-31; known on 2022-02-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-01.
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[REACH (or a likely successor) will be open by] EOY 2021 ( 60% confidence )
Created by enolan on 2020-05-16; known on 2021-07-01; judged wrong by enolan on 2022-01-31.
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No Trump family indictments in 2021 ( 35% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2022-01-30; judged right by D0TheMath on 2022-01-30.
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[Self] Tensing reveals my abs by December ( 8% confidence )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-12-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2022-01-30.
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Lund University, Sweden returns to physical classrooms by September ( 92% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by meedstrom on 2021-02-14; known on 2021-09-01; judged wrong by meedstrom on 2022-01-30.
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New Zealand will open borders to vaccinated travelers by December 2021 ( 20% confidence )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-12-16; judged wrong by enochthechronocom on 2022-01-28.
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At least 60 people will apply for Effective Altruism @ GT's Spring 2022 seminar programs ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-02-05; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-01-24.
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I do not think Belinda will secure funding from Tanya ( 65% confidence )
Created by rlourie on 2022-01-24; known on 2022-01-24; judged wrong by God on 2022-05-01.
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I will have a higher average happiness score then last week ( 70% confidence )
Created by Jeedo on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-01-23; judged wrong by Jeedo on 2022-01-23.
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Blue Origin's New Shepard to carry humans past Karman line (100km altitude) by April 15, 2022 ( 41% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-10-13; known on 2022-04-15; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-21.
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Western Australia allows quarantine-free travel from New South Wales in accordance with the Safe Transition Plan from 5 February 2022 ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by sjy on 2021-12-30; known on 2022-02-06; judged wrong by sjy on 2022-01-20.
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Blue Monday Festival (https://bluemondayfestival.com/) will be postponed ( 50% confidence )
Created by LouisLC on 2021-12-27; known on 2022-01-20; judged right by LouisLC on 2022-01-20.
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At least 1 of the 9 people in I&M who are attending Hereticon will test positive for COVID before Jan 23. ( 70% confidence )
Created by andymatuschak on 2022-01-09; known on 2022-01-23; judged right by andymatuschak on 2022-01-19.
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I predict that I will not get an interview with HSS within 40 days ( 70% confidence )
Created by waldo2525 on 2021-11-22; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by waldo2525 on 2022-01-19.
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germany announces lockdown for everyone before the 15 of January 2022 ( 23% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by chemotaxis101 on 2022-01-18.
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euro and us dollar will form a new currency within 10 years (both will be supplanted by a common currency shared by the USA and some current Euro members) ( 32% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by siscoking on 2012-01-04; known on 2022-01-16; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-17.
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At least one Effective Altruism @ GT board member will get COVID-19 during the Spring 2022 semester ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-05-15; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-01-16.
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I visit California in December. ( 85% confidence )
Created by giljuand on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-01-16; judged wrong by giljuand on 2022-01-16.
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Georgia Tech wins its basketball game against UNC on Saturday, January 15 ( 27% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-01-16; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-01-16.
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RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-03-16.
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RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-03-16.
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Top price performance (in G3D Mark / $) of GPU ≥60 on January 14, 2022 (as assessed by this Metaculus question: https://www.metaculus.com/questions/6194/top-price-performance-in-g3d-mark—of-gpu/). ( 74% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-15.