PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

At end of March break, my school will be on full masking. ( 55% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-29; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-29.

Russian stock market is open on Monday, March 28 2022 ( 59% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-03-29; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-29.

we will sit at the same table in the bryn mawr room. ( 85% confidence )

Created by Wineormilk on 2022-03-22; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by Wineormilk on 2022-03-29.

No Blue state to be in the top 5 for per a capita deaths from Covid by January 1, 2023. ( 54% confidence; 13 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-12; known on 2023-01-02; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-28.

Any movie will win 6 or more Oscars at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony. ( 18% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-21; known on 2022-03-28; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-28.

Any movie will win 6 or more Oscars at the 94th Academy Awards ceremony. ( 18% confidence )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-21; known on 2022-03-28; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-28.

I will lose my virginity before I turn 23 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by lazydope on 2022-03-25.

New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 21% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.

Russian stock market is open on Monday, March 21 2022 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-03-22; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-21.

DATE > SEX: I will have sex with Karla ( 55% confidence )

Created by pancakemouse on 2022-03-20; known on 2022-03-21; judged right by pancakemouse on 2022-03-21.

I can revise predictions on this site ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Oscar142857 on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-03-19; judged right by Oscar142857 on 2022-03-18.

RSA-1024 will be factored by 2021-12-31. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RSA_Factoring_Challenge ( 11% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by evand on 2021-03-04; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-03-16.

Cease fire this week holds for > 24 hours ( 16% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Ben on 2022-02-28; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-03-16.

At least one fatality related to truck protests in Canada by March 15. ( 61% confidence )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-10; known on 2022-03-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-16.

The closing price of a barrel of crude oil will be $115 or more on March 15, 2022 ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-16.

My paper will not get a flat rejection ( 57% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-12-05; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by sty.silver on 2022-03-15.

3:4 people will quit crew before the spring trip ( 80% confidence )

Created by larrison23 on 2021-10-17; known on 2022-03-15; judged right by larrison23 on 2022-03-15.

3:4 people will apply to be board members in EA ( 80% confidence; 5 comments )

Created by larrison23 on 2021-10-17; known on 2021-12-10; judged right by larrison23 on 2022-03-15.

3.4:3.8 GPA at the end of the semester ( 80% confidence )

Created by larrison23 on 2021-10-17; known on 2021-12-24; judged right by larrison23 on 2022-03-15.

there will not be a UK covid lockdown within the next 5 months ( 55% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by gurgus on 2021-09-13; known on 2022-02-13; judged right by stepan on 2022-03-13.

Russia won't be disconnected from global internet as of Mar 11, 2022 ( 98% confidence; 4 wagers )

Created by denisp on 2022-03-10; known on 2022-03-12; judged right by denisp on 2022-03-12.

I will pray at least five times on Wednesday, March 9, with each of the five prayers spaced at least 30 minutes apart ( 95% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-03-10; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-12.

I will go to bed by 11pm EST on Wednesday, March 9 ( 95% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-03-10; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-12.

[I will be back home] on or before March 3, 2022 ( 1% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.

[I will be back home] never (won't make it back home) ( 0% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.

[I will be back home] after March 31, 2022 ( 8% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.

[I will be back home] between March 18, 2022 and March 31, 2022 (inclusive) ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged wrong by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.

[I will be back home] between March 4, 2022 and March 17, 2022 (inclusive) ( 65% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by Issa Rice on 2022-02-27; known on 2025-01-01; judged right by Issa Rice on 2022-03-10.

Lee Jae-myung will win the 2022 presidential election of Republic of Korea. ( 70% confidence )

Created by ysc on 2022-03-05; known on 2022-03-10; judged wrong by ysc on 2022-03-09.

I will pray at least five times on Tuesday, March 8, with each of the five prayers spaced at least 30 minutes apart ( 95% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-09; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-09.

I will go to bed by 11pm EST on Tuesday, March 8 ( 95% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-09; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-09.

I will complete at least six Pomodori on Tuesday, March 8 by 10pm EST on non-EA tasks ( 80% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-10; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-09.

I will exercise for at least 30 min by 9pm EST on Tuesday, March 8 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-08; known on 2022-03-09; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-03-09.

(The Hurt Locker) The young guy will die. ( 60% confidence )

Created by rlourie on 2022-03-06; known on 2022-03-06; judged wrong by rlourie on 2022-03-06.

World – Russian-Ukrainian war has collateral damage to a third party outside the borders of the current participants, or another participant outside CSTO becomes part of the war, before deadline. ( 29% confidence; 6 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-03-06.

Russia has conquered Kyiv before deadline ( 13% confidence; 14 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-27; known on 2022-03-04; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-04.

EA – 80k jobs board bot is finished by Mar 1 ( 61% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-02.

Russia stops delivering gas to Germany before deadline ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-27; known on 2022-03-02; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-02.

Stripe has an IPO before 3/1/22 ( 67% confidence )

Created by finback on 2020-09-24; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by finback on 2022-03-02.

Personal, Productivity – I maintain an uninterrupted Duolingo streak (with no streak freezes used) from the 15th to the 28th of February 2022 inclusive. ( 85% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-03-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-03-01.

Politics, UK – Boris Johnson resigns before March 2022 ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-03-01.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in pairs will be:] Tarasova / Morozov ( 5% confidence )

Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-19; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-28.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in pairs will be:] Boikova / Kozlovskii ( 10% confidence )

Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-19; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-28.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in pairs will be:] Mishina / Galliamov ( 70% confidence )

Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-19; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-28.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in pairs will be:] Sui / Han ( 15% confidence )

Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-19; judged right by huera on 2022-02-28.

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2022-02-28; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2022-02-28.

Ich werde mich am Freitag betrinken ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jeedo on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-02-26; judged wrong by Jeedo on 2022-02-27.

Fiction, Glowfic – Albe from “A dath ilani EMT in queen abrogail's court” is really Queen Abrogail in disguise. ( 72% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-06-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-26.

I will get back to G by 9pm EST on Friday, February 25 ( 75% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-26.

I will complete at least eight Pomodori on Thursday, February 24 by 10pm EST on non-EA tasks, at least two of which are completed by 1pm EST ( 75% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.

Statistics

Judged Predictions