There will not be a pandemic by Christmas 2021 (in at least half of all countries on a political map, according to their governments) ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by wizzwizz4 on 2021-01-11; known on 2021-12-27; judged wrong by kallman on 2022-01-01.

I will remain below 67kg at end 2021. Follow on from prediction that I will be under 67kg by end February 2021. Currently 68.6kg. ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-01-01.

I will complete studying “A first course in general relativity” in 2021. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-01-01.

Eric Weinstein said “I'm going to put out Geometric Unity in written form” (in 2021, new years resolution) here https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qRmbQP6ho4c&ab_channel=DrBrianKeating. I say it will not happen. ( 75% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by waveman on 2021-01-05; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by waveman on 2022-01-01.

Between August 1 and December 31 2021, the UK will experience a 24 hour period where over 1,000 Covid related deaths are recorded ( 54% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by gurgus on 2021-07-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by gurgus on 2022-01-01.

Google Plus will continue to be actively supported by Google through 2021, with growth in active users. ( 32% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Paul.David.Carr on 2016-04-29; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Paul.David.Carr on 2022-01-01.

The real identity of Nakamoto Satoshi will be publicly known by 2022 ( 34% confidence; 35 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2013-04-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by M on 2022-01-01.

I publish >=1 paper on (A | Bio)rXiv in 2021. ( 60% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

China attacks Taiwan in 2021. ( 2% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $75k ( 5% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

[Bitcoin price on January 1st, 2022 >] $100k ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

[ETH price on January 1st, 2022 >] $5k ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

≥1 additional major tech company (FAANG, Twitter, Airbnb, Uber, Lyft, DoorDash, Square, and others ≥~5,000 employees at my discretion) with a Bay Area HQ announces in 2021 move of HQ to either Los Angeles (actual move can happen after 2021). ( 40% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

First Tesla Cybertruck delivered to customer in 2021. ( 22% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

Another company besides Waymo's self-driving car service open to the public (anywhere) in 2021. ( 10% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

Waymo self-driving car service open to the public in a city outside of Arizona in 2021. ( 20% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

Language model released that uses 10x the # of parameters used by by GPT-3 in 2021. ( 40% confidence )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

Proof that P≠NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 1% confidence; 12 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

Another baby born from an embryo publicly declared to have been modified with CRISPR (or another gene editing complex). ( 4% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-01.

Kobe Bryant will own a professional sports team outside the US within the next 12 years (till 2024) ( 31% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by RandomThinker on 2012-03-07; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-01.

Proof that P=NP (confirmed by Scott Aaronson) in 2021. ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by sty.silver on 2022-01-01.

'Fully reusable, single-stage-to-orbit spacecraft' in 2021 ( 31% confidence; 6 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-01-01.

CPUs switch from silicon to carbon nanotubes by 2022 ( 33% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-01-01.

North Korea will invade South Korea by January 1st, 2022 ( 5% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by playablecharacter on 2018-01-19; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by playablecharacter on 2022-01-01.

New Glenn rocket to fly putting a payload into orbit by end of 2021. ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.

First SLS to fly by end of 2021. ( 31% confidence; 18 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-06-09; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.

New Glenn to launch by end of 2021. ( 48% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-08-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.

ULA's Vulcan rocket to fly by end of 2021. ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-12-18; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.

New Glenn to fly at least once in 2021 ( 6% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.

Israel and Egypt at war by 2022 ( 21% confidence; 15 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2011-09-16; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.

'I predict that the chance that a major episode of violence will break out in the next decade—a conflict with 100,000 deaths in a year, or a million deaths overall—is 9.7 percent' —Steven Pinker ( 51% confidence; 12 wagers; 14 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-11-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.

>=10 IEDs used on US highways in 2021 ( 15% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-11-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.

My WAM for sem 1 2021 will be 90+ ( 30% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by iterate-again on 2021-01-16; known on 2021-06-15; judged wrong by iterate-again on 2022-01-01.

Jeffrey Epstein was murdered and there is good evidence (e.g. footage or accepted confession or arrest warrant or conviction) that this was the case, before 2022 ( 3% confidence; 13 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2019-08-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-01.

Before 2022 UTC, any type of thermonuclear device will be detonated inside or within 6 km of Israel, Israeli-occupied territories, or West Bank, killing >= 1000 people in the first 24 hours ( 3% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2011-09-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-01.

By 2021, we will have seen a spate of articles (say more than 5) discussing law enforcement's concern that self-driving cars have reduced their ability to apprehend criminals, and municipalities' concern that their revenue has dropped. ( 53% confidence; 6 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by coyotespike on 2016-01-07; known on 2021-12-16; judged wrong by Medea on 2021-12-31.

[No new polio cases in the semester ending] 31 December 2021 ( 33% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2017-12-23; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.