Statistics
Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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I will get a covid vaccine in by September 2021 ( 70% confidence )
Created by htaussig on 2021-02-04; known on 2021-11-01; judged right by htaussig on 2021-11-08.
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Portugal's Covid Vaccination – I (a healthy 27 year old who didn't yet get the 1st dose) will get my 2nd dose during 2022 ( 43% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by LouisLC on 2021-05-02; known on 2022-04-01; judged wrong by LouisLC on 2021-11-03.
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I will be accepted into a top 10 Economics PHD program in the following decade. ( 20% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by Tuxedage on 2013-05-08; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Tuxedage on 2021-11-02.
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By 2021-11-01 will the US FDA approve a COVID-19 vaccine for children aged 5-11? ( 79% confidence )
Created by ihavenoahidea on 2021-09-20; known on 2021-11-01; judged right by ihavenoahidea on 2021-11-01.
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Kamala Harris will be president on Nov. 1, 2021. ( 11% confidence; 17 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by ren on 2020-11-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by PlacidPlatypus on 2021-11-01.
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Holographic television will be widely available by 2021. ( 55% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2011-11-02; known on 2021-11-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-11-01.
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Dune movie is released in October ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-11-01; judged right by stepan on 2021-11-01.
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SETI@Home gets compromised by state-sponsored actor as means of getting access to its users computers ( 86% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-09; known on 2021-10-07; judged wrong by Toadface on 2021-10-31.
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bitcoin is no longer around, but zcash is ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-29; known on 2021-10-28; judged wrong by Toadface on 2021-10-31.
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The number of daily cases in NSW will peak during September at between 500 and 2,000 ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by sjy on 2021-09-07; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by sjy on 2021-10-31.
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In two weeks, Victoria sees a continual reduction in daily COVID case numbers ( 40% confidence )
Created by sjy on 2021-08-31; known on 2021-09-14; judged wrong by sjy on 2021-10-31.
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[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 2.5M ( 61% confidence; 11 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2021-10-30.
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The US Census Bureau will find that San Francisco has a population of over 860,000 ( 95% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by finback on 2020-08-27; known on 2021-03-31; judged right by finback on 2021-10-29.
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TRỊNH ĐĂNG DỤ / VDUH^2100080572 u trực tràng cao T2N0Mx ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-16; known on 2021-09-30; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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NGUYỄN KIM BẢO / VDUH^2100079612 Hình ảnh tổn thương xẹp thân đốt sống L2 lan vào cuống sống và cung sau tạo khối xâm lấn xung quanh như mô tả, chưa loại trừ u mô bào X, đề nghị phối hợp sinh thiết. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26.
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VŨ HÀ MY / VDUH^2100080889 Hình ảnh khối lớn tiểu khung giàu mạch theo dõi u buồng trứng. Ít dịch tự do ổ bụng. ( 50% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-15; known on 2021-09-29; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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TẠ THỊ THỦY / VDUH^2100080860 Hình ảnh u gan phải tính chất không điển hình (Đề nghị phối hợp thêm xét nghiệm). Khối vùng hạ vị ranh giới rõ – TD u mạc treo. U xơ thành sau tử cung. TẠ THỊ THỦY / VDUH^2100080860 ( 30% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-15; known on 2021-09-29; judged right by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-10-26.
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NGÔ QUANG VINH / VDUH^2100080255 u màng não Meckel xoang hang trái ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-16; known on 2021-09-30; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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ngô quang vinh 51 UMN? ( 70% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-27; known on 2021-10-04; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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8:12 Head of the Charles 1v placement ( 80% confidence )
Created by larrison23 on 2021-10-17; known on 2021-10-24; judged right by larrison23 on 2021-10-24.
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econstudentlog.wordpress.com or its successor will cease to be updated ( 56% confidence; 3 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-10-23; known on 2021-10-23; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-10-23.
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SEC filings from Tesla motors still lists Lucid Motors/Atieva/whatever they change their name to as a competitor ( 61% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-20; known on 2021-10-20; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-10-20.
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Armin Laschet becomes the next chancellor of Germany after Angela Merkel ( 55% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2021-10-20.
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COVID, UK – Seven day average of cases exceeds 40,000 before deadline. ( 31% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-28; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2021-10-17.
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Politics, US – The US government considers itself to be meeting the troop withdrawal requirements of the 'US-Afghanistan Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan' at the start of 2021-10-01. ( 76% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-04-18; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2021-10-17.
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Fewer than 75 people participate in Protect the People's Haiti H-2A program in 2016 ( 50% confidence; 2 comments )
Created by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2021-10-17; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by OpenPhilUnofficial on 2021-10-17.
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Minecraft to be more popular in 2020 than 2015 ( 37% confidence; 5 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2021-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.
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Harvard endowment in 2020 to exceed that of 2015 ( 61% confidence; 7 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2021-01-16; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.
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Sean Penn will end up killed in gang-related violence. ( 13% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-01-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.
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Harvard University will have in-person classes for Spring 2021 ( 47% confidence; 8 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-07-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.
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Will Columbia University resume in-person classes for Fall 2020? ( 36% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-06-05; known on 2020-09-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.
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Burning Man 2021 will happen (some time this fall at least 10k people will simultaneously be in Black Rock Desert) ( 29% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by lithp on 2021-03-22; known on 2021-10-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-05.
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Master Chief from Halo is the final smash character ( 20% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-10-05; known on 2021-10-05; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-10-05.
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Sora from Kingdom Hearts is the final smash character ( 33% confidence )
Created by gallerdude on 2021-10-05; known on 2021-10-05; judged right by gallerdude on 2021-10-05.
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Sans from Undertale is a Smash Ultimate DLC character ( 12% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by gallerdude on 2018-12-10; known on 2020-02-01; judged wrong by gallerdude on 2021-10-05.
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Germany's Green party gets the most seats in Bundestag 2021 ( 28% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-05-01; known on 2021-10-01; judged wrong by M on 2021-10-01.
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SPX reaches 4000 by the end of 2021 ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-03-10; known on 2021-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-01.
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[I will go to Italy] Before August 31 ( 40% confidence )
Created by vlad.proex on 2021-05-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by vlad.proex on 2021-10-01.
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[I will go to Italy] Before December 31 ( 80% confidence )
Created by vlad.proex on 2021-05-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by vlad.proex on 2021-10-01.
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Created by gmcculley on 2020-09-03; known on 2021-03-01; judged right by gmcculley on 2021-09-30.
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Mediastinal mass with multiple hyperdense cortical brain lesions. Hpe of mediastinal mass. Lymphoma? TB? ( 50% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-08-25; judged right by Akram1 on 2021-09-30.
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Hpe inguinal node biopsy. Rn 1044418. Reactive node? ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-09-24; judged right by Akram1 on 2021-09-30.
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Hpe inguinal node biopsy. Rn 1044418. Reactive node? ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-09-24; judged right by Akram1 on 2021-09-30.
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Hpe inguinal node biopsy. Rn 1044418. Reactive node? ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Akram1 on 2021-08-19; known on 2021-09-24; judged right by Akram1 on 2021-09-30.
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I am within 10 miles of Cambridge on Monday, Sep 27. ( 70% confidence )
Created by giljuand on 2021-09-19; known on 2021-09-28; judged right by giljuand on 2021-09-28.
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TRỊNH VĂN TUYÊN / VDUH^2100079710 Hình ảnh u trung thất sau bên phải ngang mức T2-T3 như mô tả nghĩ tới schwannoma. ( 50% confidence )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged wrong by AgentOrange on 2022-05-23.
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NGUYỄN NGỌC TƯỜNG VY 11 Hình ảnh u vùng trên yên, theo dõi u sọ hầu, gây giãn não thất. ( 80% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-09-22; judged wrong by Clouduknguyen_95 on 2021-09-27.