Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] SPD (social democratic party) ( 12% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged right by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] Die Linke (socialist party) ( 3% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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Wind will produce 7% or more of consumed US power by 2022. Linked to my believe the US will have no transcontinental transmission strategy by then. ( 54% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by atomicspaceman on 2017-02-08; known on 2022-03-05; judged right by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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5% of US energy production will be from solar sources by 2022. ( 57% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by atomicspaceman on 2017-02-08; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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Borders of Mali modified in the next ten years ( 37% confidence; 6 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Leo on 2012-03-26; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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eth at 5k+ in a year ( 13% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by htaussig on 2021-04-19; known on 2022-04-19; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-20.
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Someone other than me makes a prediction in the next week ( 76% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-19; known on 2022-04-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-04-19.
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Tapetum-Lucidum does not make any more metapredictions, after this one, until 2023 ( 27% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-17; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-19.
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Éric Zemmour ne se présentera pas ou n'atteindra pas 5% au premier tour des élections présidentielles de 2022. ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-20; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by Tot on 2022-04-18.
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I'll be in the process of buying a flat by the end of June 2022. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-13; known on 2022-07-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-04-18.
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Jean-Luc Mélenchon fera un meilleur score aux élections présidentielles de 2022 qu'à celles de 2017. ( 10% confidence )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-21; known on 2022-05-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-04-18.
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WHO adds a new COVID-19 “variant of concern” by April 16th, 2022 ( 28% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Bruno on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-04-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-18.
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Éric Zemmour obtiendra un score supérieur à celui de Marine le Pen au premier tour des élections présidentielles de 2022. ( 45% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2022-02-14; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by 0uGiL on 2022-04-17.
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Bharat will be ranked 2nd in the world by 2020 for steel production. ( 88% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-01-29; known on 2020-12-25; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-12.
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1 person helicopter drones in commercial use ( 68% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-12.
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MDMA-mediated psychotherapy receives FDA approval in the next five years. ( 11% confidence; 7 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by NathanMcKnight on 2016-02-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-12.
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someone markets a robotic 'teddy fuxpin' terry ruxpin clone. ( 73% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-08-18; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-12.
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The 7-day moving average of Covid deaths (as tracked by the New York Times) will be less than 1000 people on April 4, 2022. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by adanvers on 2022-03-31; known on 2022-04-04; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-10.
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Quelle est la probabilité d'avoir Le Pen devançant Macron au premier tour? ( 37% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by mathieu on 2022-04-10; known on 2022-04-10; judged wrong by mathieu on 2022-04-10.
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Quelle est la probabilité d'avoir un second tour Macron Le Pen? ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by mathieu on 2022-04-10; known on 2022-04-10; judged right by mathieu on 2022-04-10.
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A magical/mystic/ancient/god character will make an appearance. (Dr. Strange/Blade/Morbius/Eternals/Loki/etc.) ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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This site would benefit from having a hashtag functionality for predictions, allowing for easy searching and being able to look up prediction accuracy for specific hashtags. ( 90% confidence; 4 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-14; known on 2019-02-14; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-08.
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GPT-3 or comparably advanced AI will be used to generate in-game AI behavior, gameplay logic, and/or story/plot content in a AAA game. ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by topherhunt on 2020-12-12; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-08.
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There won't be a significant automobile virus sighting ( 13% confidence )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-10-10; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-08.
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'Water crisis in southwest USA' in 2021 ( 44% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by gwern on 2010-10-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-08.
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i think accountant will change their mind ( 52% confidence; 4 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by Sesq on 2017-03-24; known on 2022-03-24; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-08.
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2 hours of One Minute Thought — schedule, podcast apps etc (repurpose Radio Browser Feed) ( 80% confidence )
Created by mbu on 2022-04-06; known on 2022-04-07; judged right by mbu on 2022-04-07.
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Marijuana will be rescheduled to a Schedule II drug by 2020 ( 40% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-11; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-07.
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I will have a job before 250 applications ( 66% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by waldo2525 on 2021-11-15; known on 2022-11-15; judged wrong by waldo2525 on 2022-04-06.
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EA – EAGxBoston 2022 takes place the first weekend of April 2022 ( 90% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-04-05; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-04-05.
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'Morbius' will gross $50 million or more on opening weekend in the USA ( 40% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-04-08; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-04.
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I will still be using Prediction Book in 4 year's time. ( 58% confidence; 3 comments )
Created by Athrithalix on 2018-03-29; known on 2022-03-29; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-03.
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Russia negotiates a peace deal with Zelenskyy government by March 30, 2022 and abides by it for at least one year ( 22% confidence; 12 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-25; known on 2023-03-30; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-03.
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I will have put online an experiment by next weekend. ( 60% confidence )
Created by Ygg on 2022-03-27; known on 2022-04-01; judged wrong by Ygg on 2022-04-03.
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Odessa will not be invaded by Russia by April 3rd ( 93% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Ygg on 2022-03-27; known on 2022-04-03; judged right by Ygg on 2022-04-03.
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Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Kyiv as of April 2, 2022 ( 27% confidence; 16 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.
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Russian-Ukrainian War – Will Russia control Lviv as of 2nd April, 2022? ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-03-06; known on 2022-04-03; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-04-03.
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Biden to announce a No Fly Zone while in Europe. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-21; known on 2024-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-05-14.
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Biden to announce a No Fly Zone while in Europe. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-21; known on 2024-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-05-14.
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Russia is disallowed from competing in the FIFA World Cup Qatar 2022 by start of April. ( 58% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-26; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-04-02.
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I'll have an income of 4000+/month before March of 2022, ( 53% confidence )
Created by okayspm on 2021-10-05; known on 2022-04-01; judged right by okayspm on 2022-04-02.
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I will be in bed before midnight each night this week ( 30% confidence )
Created by Ben on 2022-02-28; known on 2022-03-04; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-01.
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China knew origins of Covid-19 before the rest of the world and did not disclose that information ( 45% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05; judged right by God on 2022-04-01.
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I will exercise for at least 30 min by 9pm EST on Wednesday, March 9 ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-03-10; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-01.
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I will have sex with Greta ( 47% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Jeedo on 2022-01-30; known on 2022-03-31; judged wrong by ActuallyGreta on 2022-04-01.
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Covid-19 escaped from a lab ( 30% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05; judged right by randpaul2024 on 2022-04-01.
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Covid-19 was intentionally released from a lab ( 10% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05; judged right by randpaul2024 on 2022-04-01.
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By 2021, there is a company with >$100M net profit whose core product critically depends on blockchain. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers; 5 comments )
Created by Michael Dickens on 2018-12-01; known on 2021-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-01.
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French government announces lockdown for unvaccinated before end of January (for non-essential shops) ( 36% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-04; known on 2022-01-31; judged wrong by Andref2015 on 2022-03-31.
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Alien/Time travelling human presence revealed on 27th of March 2022 ( 0% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by OisinMoran on 2017-10-19; known on 2022-03-27; judged wrong by OisinMoran on 2022-03-29.