Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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Created by krazemon on 2021-02-23; known on 2022-01-14; judged wrong by krazemon on 2022-01-15.
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[Relativo a las elecciones del 10N,] se formará gobierno y durará al menos dos años ( 40% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sortega on 2019-11-12; known on 2020-05-12; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-14.
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M's PCR comes back positive ( 25% confidence )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2022-01-09; known on 2022-01-13; judged wrong by EloiseRosen on 2022-01-09.
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My employer's planned January return to the office is pushed back again. ( 78% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by EloiseRosen on 2021-09-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by EloiseRosen on 2022-01-06.
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Covid 19 will be eradicated ( 80% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Mwalimu71 on 2021-02-16; known on 2021-02-23; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
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Jair Bolsonaro sofre impeachment antes do final de 2021 ( 45% confidence )
Created by rapinoinfeliz on 2020-07-22; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
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Congress will formally disestablish the reservations described in McGirt v. Oklahoma by the end of 2021 ( 41% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Deepak on 2020-07-09; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
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“within 5 years of leaving office, the Obamas will have a net worth of more than $50 million.” —Dennis Mangan ( 65% confidence; 12 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2011-07-21; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Bruno Parga on 2022-01-05.
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I will meditate at least 180 hours total in 2021. ( 70% confidence )
Created by korakos on 2020-11-29; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by korakos on 2022-01-04.
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New South Wales has 25,000 COVID cases a day by late January ( 77% confidence; 3 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by sjy on 2021-12-30; known on 2022-02-01; judged right by kronicd on 2022-01-04.
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Trump will be removed from office before his term is complete. ( 29% confidence; 10 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by sdd167 on 2017-03-09; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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Palantir stock price will reach $50 at some point before April 1. ( 28% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by srconstantin on 2021-02-08; known on 2021-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-01-04.
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Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.
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Utah public lands lawsuit reaches US Supreme Court ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-09-04; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-04.
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Will NYC's snowfall in 2020-2021 be below average? ( 58% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by InquilineKea on 2020-12-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-04.
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Community – Scott Alexander mentions the self-referential Metaculus question asking if he mentions that question. ( 61% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-09-12; known on 2021-10-02; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-01-04.
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The AMC stock will go through a short squeeze, where the stock will reach at least US$ 100/ea, but it could potentially reach more than US$ 500/ea. ( 70% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by alfredbaudisch on 2021-08-09; known on 2022-01-04; judged wrong by alfredbaudisch on 2022-01-04.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] Bündnis '90 die Grünen (green party) ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by atzeje on 2022-01-04.
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Olaf Scholz will be Chancellor of Germany on 2022-01-01. ( 83% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by atzeje on 2021-09-11; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by atzeje on 2022-01-04.
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1-5-10-15 income tax passes in the US ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-03.
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0% corporate tax in US ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-02-17; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-03.
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Rupert Murdoch will still lead Fox News after his 90th birthday ( 74% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-15; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by stepan on 2022-01-03.
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Airplanes are becoming less safe in the 2010's than they were in the 2000's in the U.S. ( 36% confidence; 7 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by RandomThinker on 2013-07-06; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-03.
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A stronger stimulant than caffeine will be widely legally available in the UK by 2022, and be used and sold in a similar way ( 39% confidence; 3 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by Michael Stevens on 2012-04-06; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-03.
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I will have a new job by the end of the year, or will have change the project I am working on significantly ( 60% confidence )
Created by Jeedo on 2021-08-29; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Jeedo on 2022-01-02.
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We will have three sessions of the ILFC Seminar by the end of 2021. ( 85% confidence )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-09; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-01-02.
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I will have submitted the syntax-semantics interface paper by the end of 2021 ( 80% confidence )
Created by Tot on 2021-11-03; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by Tot on 2022-01-02.
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I will be divorced by the end of 2021. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-08; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Tot on 2022-02-14.
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Housing crash (average price down at least 30%) in Ontario, Canada by the end of the year. ( 20% confidence )
Created by ianc on 2021-05-09; known on 2022-01-02; judged wrong by ianc on 2022-01-02.
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Italy will default on its debt by 2022. ( 45% confidence; 5 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Raahul_Kumar on 2016-02-16; known on 2022-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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I will move to Glasgow this year ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by ayegill on 2020-10-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by ayegill on 2022-01-02.
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Sometime this year, the South African and Brazilian strains – or other new strains with similar dynamics – will be a majority of coronavirus cases in the US ( 60% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2022-01-02; judged right by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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Diablo IV is released in 2021 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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Avatar 2 is released in December 2021 ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by qznc on 2019-12-29; known on 2021-12-25; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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Having survived CoViD-19 makes you immune for at least a year ( 62% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2020-04-18; known on 2021-11-03; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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sometime in 2021, the FDA grants a pharmaceutical company general approval for coronavirus vaccines which can adapt to changing virus strains without going through the entire FDA approval process again ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by qznc on 2021-02-21; known on 2022-01-02; judged wrong by qznc on 2022-01-02.
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Microsoft buys Cloudflare ( 25% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2017-04-24; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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Blue Origin's New Glenn to enter commercial service by the end of 2021. ( 7% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by Athrithalix on 2017-11-14; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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By 1/1/2022 GE stock will be at $15 or more a share. ( 17% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by bogusia_k on 2018-11-12; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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>1 million american refugees have entered canadian borders ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-12-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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One of the cyberwarfare viruses (Stuxnet, Flame, ??) will spill out and hit civilian US computers in a widespread way before 2022. ( 45% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by RandomThinker on 2012-05-30; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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Data-centers get carbon taxed by the end of 2021 ( 56% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by predoindk on 2019-08-25; known on 2021-12-31; judged right by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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Australia will open its borders to travellers from Canada, without an exemption or quarantine requirement, at some point in 2021 ( 10% confidence; 5 wagers )
Created by sjy on 2021-01-01; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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Starship reaches space by December 31 this year ( 13% confidence; 3 wagers )
Created by enochthechronocom on 2021-09-08; known on 2021-12-31; judged wrong by stepan on 2022-01-02.
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Kamala Harris to be US President by the end of 2021. ( 6% confidence; 12 wagers; 6 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2020-11-08; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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Tech – In 2021, will Blizzard announce new content for StarCraft as a response to advances in AI? ( 11% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-05-30; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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COVID, UK – UK exceeds a seven-day average of 100 deaths per day again (after this prediction) before the end of 2021. ( 83% confidence; 6 wagers )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-07-11; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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Personal – I scan all documents in my intray to be scanned by deadline. ( 80% confidence )
Created by jbeshir on 2021-10-17; known on 2021-10-18; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-01-02.
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I meet my reading goals for the next two days, as recorded in my notebook. ( 85% confidence )
Created by jakebeardsley on 2021-12-17; known on 2021-12-19; judged wrong by jakebeardsley on 2022-01-01.
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I will be a member of a cryonics organisation before 2022. ( 80% confidence )
Created by Mati on 2014-02-14; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by Mati on 2022-01-01.