PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

I will show up to ethics class on time on Thursday, February 24 (and arrive by 3:30pm EST) ( 90% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.

I will go to bed by 11pm EST on Thursday, February 24 ( 90% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.

I will pray at least five times on Thursday, February 24, with each of the five prayers spaced at least 30 minutes apart ( 90% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-25.

I will complete at least eight Pomodori on Thursday, February 24 by 9pm EST on non-EA tasks, at least two of which are completed by 12pm EST ( 80% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-24; known on 2022-02-25; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.

Russia will invade Kyiv before June 2022 ( 18% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-09; known on 2022-06-16; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-24.

russia will invade ukraine before may 2022 ( 32% confidence; 2 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by issobel on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-05-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.

New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 21% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.

Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.

Russian troops amassed on border invade Ukraine ( 61% confidence; 23 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-01-26; known on 2022-12-31; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.

New lettered variant of covid announced by February 20th, 2022. ( 21% confidence; 20 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-16; known on 2022-03-05; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.

I will pray at least five times on Wednesday, February 23 (EST) ( 100% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-23; known on 2022-02-24; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.

I will exercise for at least 30 min in the CRC by 9pm EST on Wednesday, February 23 ( 85% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-23; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.

I will do two legit Pomodori by 2pm EST on Wednesday, February 23 ( 95% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-23; known on 2022-02-24; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-24.

I will pray at least five times on Tuesday, February 22 ( 100% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-23.

I will finish at least eight legit Pomodori working on my NLP project on Tuesday, February 22 by 9pm EST, at least two of which are completed by 1pm EST ( 88% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-23.

I will respond to ᒉᐦᔅᐦᑎᓐ by 8pm EST on February 22, 2022 ( 90% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-23.

[ Geopolitics , Military ] Russia attacks Ukraine even further within 100 (one hundred) days ( 75% confidence; 10 wagers; 8 comments )

Created by two2thehead on 2022-02-10; known on 2022-05-21; judged right by two2thehead on 2022-02-22.

No board member will facilitate the EA @ GT lunch on Tuesday, February 22 ( 60% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-23; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-22.

Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.

Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 88% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-22.

Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.

People will need a 2nd vaccine booster shot within 4 months of receiving their first booster shot. #secondbooster #vaccineboosters ( 73% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by julietierney14 on 2021-12-28; known on 2022-01-28; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-22.

Tech – Manifold Markets implements editing resolve time of markets before 21th Feb 2022 05:00 UTC ( 19% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-02-21; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-22.

Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.

Ich werde bei Tilman an der BA schreiben ( 40% confidence )

Created by Jeedo on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-02-21; judged wrong by Jeedo on 2022-02-21.

Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.

Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.

Russia to invade Ukraine by midnight EST, Feb 25. ( 59% confidence; 8 wagers; 9 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-19; known on 2022-02-26; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-24.

COVID, UK – Queen Elizabeth II is publicly confirmed to have COVID before 2022-02-20 05:00 UTC ( 6% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-02-20; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-20.

“Anti-fat drugs are available” in 2018 ( 47% confidence; 4 wagers; 10 comments )

Created by gwern on 2010-10-18; known on 2019-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-19.

Politics, UK – Sadiq Khan recives over 60% of the votes in the final round of the London Mayoral election. ( 45% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2021-03-07; known on 2021-05-07; judged wrong by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.

Tech – Manifold Markets implements a public API allowing retrieving predictions by the 1st of July 2022 ( 55% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-07-01; judged right by jbeshir on 2022-02-18.

Fiction – The webcomic Order of the Stick updates between now and 2022-02-20 08:00 UTC ( 35% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by jbeshir on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-02-20; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-18.

The steelers will win the superbowl ( 24% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Nate13195 on 2021-11-10; known on 2022-02-15; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-02-18.

I will spend at least two Pomodori on ML interview prep before 1pm on Thursday, February 17 ( 100% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-17; known on 2022-02-18; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-18.

http://www.longbets.org/601 will be a broken link in 11 years —Jeremy Keith ( 13% confidence; 9 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-02-19; known on 2022-02-18; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-02-18.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in men's singles will be:] Yuzuru Hanyu ( 60% confidence )

Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-10; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-18.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in men's singles will be:] Nathan Chen ( 38% confidence )

Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-10; judged right by huera on 2022-02-18.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in men's singles will be:] Mikhail Kolyada ( 0% confidence )

Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-10; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-18.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Kamila Valieva ( 97% confidence )

Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-17; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-18.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Anna Shcherbakova ( 1% confidence )

Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-17; judged right by huera on 2022-02-18.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Alexandra Trusova ( 2% confidence )

Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-17; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-18.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Kaori Sakamoto ( 0% confidence )

Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-17; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-18.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winner in women's singles will be:] Loena Hendrickx ( 0% confidence )

Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-17; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-18.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in ice dance will be:] Papadakis / Cizeron ( 93% confidence )

Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-14; judged right by huera on 2022-02-18.

[At the 2022 Winter Olympics the winners in ice dance will be:] Sinitsina / Katsalapov ( 5% confidence )

Created by huera on 2022-01-01; known on 2022-02-14; judged wrong by huera on 2022-02-18.

The next German president (Bundespräsident) is female (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_German_presidential_election) ( 46% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by M on 2021-11-30; known on 2022-02-17; judged wrong by M on 2022-02-17.

I will spend at least two Pomodori on ML interview prep before 1pm on Wednesday, February 16, and at least 10 Pomodori in total by 10pm ( 85% confidence; 1 comment )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-16; known on 2022-05-17; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-02-17.

I will continue to drink at least 1 cup of coffee daily on most weekdays through the end of this calendar year ( 80% confidence )

Created by Radish on 2020-08-12; known on 2021-01-02; judged right by Radish on 2022-02-16.

I will spend at least five hours on ML interview prep on Tuesday, February 15 by 11pm EST ( 85% confidence )

Created by michaelchen on 2022-02-15; known on 2022-02-16; judged right by michaelchen on 2022-02-16.

Statistics

Judged Predictions