PredictionBook: Judged Predictions

Confidence	50%	60%	70%	80%	90%	100%	Total
Accuracy	50%	59%	67%	77%	88%	92%
Sample Size	11812	16505	16980	17616	31357	8046	102316

[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 5M ( 13% confidence; 11 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.

[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 10M ( 5% confidence; 9 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.

[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 20M ( 0% confidence; 9 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.

[The covid death toll during 2021 will be more than] 40M ( 0% confidence; 8 wagers )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-11-10; known on 2022-01-15; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.

[Regardless of who is president] Confidence in democracy will continue dropping (as measured by FOA and Pew). ( 76% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by Ragnarok_Reverted on 2020-08-30; known on 2020-12-31; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.

[The Economist predicts:] House prices fall across rich English-speaking countries ( 34% confidence; 2 wagers; 3 comments )

Created by Bruno Parga on 2020-01-02; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by Bruno Parga on 2021-12-31.

New Shepard to fly with people in 2021 ( 46% confidence; 5 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-01-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-29.

There will be crossover of athletes from the paralympics to the Olympics in the 2020 games. ( 27% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by Ben Doherty on 2011-05-20; known on 2020-01-16; judged wrong by Ben Doherty on 2021-12-29.

In 10 years, mainland China's TI Corruption Perceptions Index will be lower (better) than the USA. ( 14% confidence; 4 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-28; known on 2021-12-28; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-29.

Out of the 4 or 5 people who cheated in the exam, no-one will confess ( 20% confidence; 2 comments )

Created by sty.silver on 2021-12-22; known on 2021-12-27; judged right by sty.silver on 2021-12-28.

1 person helicopter drones will not be used for commercial public passenger use ( 85% confidence; 8 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by kjaques on 2016-12-15; known on 2021-12-25; judged right by kjaques on 2021-12-25.

In 10 years I will think Reddit/LW-style reputational/karma systems will be a bad thing (compared to non-karma systems like OB). ( 20% confidence; 11 wagers; 6 comments )

Created by gwern on 2011-12-24; known on 2021-12-24; judged wrong by gwern on 2021-12-24.

I will be unemployed during the entirety of 2021 ( 75% confidence )

Created by lazydope on 2021-03-30; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by lazydope on 2021-12-24.

I will sign up for cryonics before 2020. ( 33% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Jayson Virissimo on 2012-02-06; known on 2020-01-01; judged wrong by Jayson Virissimo on 2021-12-20.

This semester, I will have the time to talk object programming in the introduction to Python class. ( 70% confidence )

Created by Tot on 2021-10-13; known on 2021-12-20; judged wrong by Tot on 2021-12-20.

EA Global London will be cancelled, rescheduled, or moved online again. ( 40% confidence )

Created by D0TheMath on 2021-01-19; known on 2021-11-02; judged wrong by D0TheMath on 2021-12-17.

I go to grad school next year ( 67% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2021-03-16; judged right by fandangos on 2021-12-16.

My bachelor thesis will be done in time – even if they make some accomodations for me ( 83% confidence; 5 wagers )

Created by fandangos on 2020-07-24; known on 2020-08-15; judged right by fandangos on 2021-12-16.

World currences will become truly “credit-based” by 2021. Smartcards with biometric IDs will be the forefront of a new era in currency marketing. ( 40% confidence; 4 wagers; 4 comments )

Created by Harbinger1 on 2011-11-17; known on 2021-12-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2021-12-16.

Jens and I will call tomorrow ( 80% confidence )

Created by Andref2015 on 2021-12-11; known on 2021-12-13; judged right by Andref2015 on 2021-12-14.

20:25 points will separate the top 2 drivers in the formula one championship ( 80% confidence )

Created by larrison23 on 2021-10-17; known on 2021-12-12; judged wrong by larrison23 on 2021-12-12.

DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Macarena/Viviana ( 20% confidence )

Created by pancakemouse on 2021-12-08; known on 2021-12-09; judged right by pancakemouse on 2021-12-12.

DATE -> SEX: I will sleep with Macarena/Viviana ( 20% confidence )

Created by pancakemouse on 2021-12-08; known on 2021-12-09; judged right by pancakemouse on 2021-12-12.

[Next Coalition in Germany:] Other ( 1% confidence )

Created by amadeu on 2021-10-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2021-12-06.

[Next Coalition in Germany:] SPD+CDU/CSU ( 15% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2021-10-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2021-12-06.

[Next Coalition in Germany:] CDU/CSU+Greens+FDP ( 13% confidence; 2 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2021-10-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2021-12-06.

[Next Coalition in Germany:] SPD+Greens+FDP ( 73% confidence; 3 wagers )

Created by amadeu on 2021-10-01; known on 2022-01-01; judged right by amadeu on 2021-12-06.

Chuck Yeager to become a centenarian ( 15% confidence )

Created by InquilineKea on 2015-07-13; known on 2024-01-01; judged wrong by Leo on 2021-12-03.

I will complete and publish the scout mindset review by 2021-12-01 ( 10% confidence )

Created by blin on 2021-11-07; known on 2021-12-01; judged wrong by blin on 2021-12-02.

USA Goaltimate Mixed Nationals will happen in November 2021 ( 70% confidence )

Created by Liface on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-11-30; judged right by Liface on 2021-11-30.

Skip will run a goaltimate league in the San Francisco Bay Area in Fall 2021 ( 60% confidence )

Created by Liface on 2021-01-03; known on 2021-12-21; judged right by Liface on 2021-11-30.

Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.

Kim Jong Un confirmed dead or vegetative state by end of June 2020 ( 23% confidence; 19 wagers; 2 comments )

Created by batemancapital on 2020-04-26; known on 2020-06-30; judged unknown by PseudonymousUser on 2021-10-13.

I will write a (unpublished) blog post about the insights I got from https://www.conradbastable.com/essays/the-full-stack-of-society-can-you-make-a-whole-society-wealthier-full-version and from Bret Devereaux's writing sometime in the next week. ( 60% confidence )

Created by SamBuckman on 2021-11-15; known on 2021-11-22; judged wrong by SamBuckman on 2021-11-23.

AlphaStar reaches GM league at some point during the research period ( 75% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )

Created by Michael Dickens on 2019-07-11; known on 2019-10-11; judged right by Michael Dickens on 2021-11-22.

[IFComp 2021] <4 of the top 10 scoring games are in my personal top 10 ( 80% confidence )