Statistics
| Confidence | 50% | 60% | 70% | 80% | 90% | 100% | Total |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Accuracy | 50% | 59% | 67% | 77% | 88% | 92% | |
| Sample Size | 11812 | 16505 | 16980 | 17616 | 31357 | 8046 | 102316 |
Judged Predictions
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[AWS] re:invent 2020 will announce the next iteration of DeepRacer – head to head combat robot competitions (think battle bots) ( 41% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by bly on 2019-12-03; known on 2020-12-16; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-18.
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Madison Cawthorn reelected ( 60% confidence )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-05; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-18.
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Roe v. Wade and related precedents (e.g. Casey) effectively overturned by December 31, 2025. ( 42% confidence; 7 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2018-06-29; known on 2026-01-01; judged right by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-18.
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Yeezy x Rick and Morty sneaker collaboration in the next 3 years ( 30% confidence; 4 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by prophetofprofit on 2019-05-17; known on 2022-05-17; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-17.
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Airplane mask mandate in the US to be legally in force for at least one day between now and May 15th. ( 43% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-04-19; known on 2022-05-16; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-16.
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At least one fatality, Kent-state style(though not necessarily at a university), where national guard kills protester in US ( 26% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by themusicgod1 on 2016-07-31; known on 2021-01-01; judged wrong by aarongertler on 2022-05-16.
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All Georgia Tech students will be asked to go home before the end of the semester ( 6% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by michaelchen on 2022-01-13; known on 2022-05-15; judged wrong by michaelchen on 2022-05-15.
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A paper on total difference labeling of infinite graphs will be published with me as a coauthor by May 15, 2022 ( 65% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2021-05-18; known on 2022-05-15; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-15.
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Biden to announce a No Fly Zone while in Europe. ( 5% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-21; known on 2024-04-01; judged wrong by Baeboo on 2022-05-14.
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A magical/mystic/ancient/god character will make an appearance. (Dr. Strange/Blade/Morbius/Eternals/Loki/etc.) ( 65% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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A non-Moon Knight Marvel character will make a cameo ( 100% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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A Marvel character from another TV series will make a cameo. ( 65% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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A MAIN character from a Marvel movie will make a cameo. ( 10% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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A supporting character from a Marvel movie will make a cameo. ( 50% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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A previously seen character will make a cameo ( 60% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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A new character from an upcoming show/movie will make a cameo ( 30% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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Blade will make a cameo ( 2% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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She-hulk will make a cameo ( 2% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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A Daredevil-verse character will make a cameo ( 4% confidence )
Created by gebeverungen on 2022-04-09; known on 2022-05-04; judged wrong by gebeverungen on 2022-05-06.
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I will cross the 15,000 copies-sold mark for Mind Management, Not Time Management by the end of May 2022 ( 70% confidence )
Created by kadavy on 2022-03-15; known on 2022-06-01; judged right by kadavy on 2022-05-05.
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Tesla RoboTaxi project will fail / be discontinued by 2 May 2022 ( 15% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by separo on 2019-05-19; known on 2022-05-02; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-03.
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Shurtleff v. Boston to be decided against Boston with at least six justices in the majority or concurring opinions. ( 74% confidence; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-01-19; known on 2022-08-01; judged right by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-02.
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Russian sovereign debt default by May 1, 2022 ( 47% confidence; 7 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-03-09; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by PseudonymousUser on 2022-05-02.
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Neutrino communication will be used commercially for high-frequency trading within 10 years. ( 9% confidence; 16 wagers; 9 comments )
Created by gwern on 2012-05-01; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by gwern on 2022-05-01.
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Ukraine to surrender to Russia by May 1st. ( 6% confidence; 9 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by JoshuaZ on 2022-03-18; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by JoshuaZ on 2022-05-01.
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I do not think Belinda will secure funding from Tanya ( 65% confidence )
Created by rlourie on 2022-01-24; known on 2022-01-24; judged wrong by God on 2022-05-01.
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Lab-grown meat on sale at 20 times the price of animal-grown meat or cheaper. ( 59% confidence; 16 wagers; 4 comments )
Created by penten on 2016-12-01; known on 2021-12-01; judged wrong by God on 2022-05-01.
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Sometime within calendar year 2022, Ooga leaves Ashley's embrace for long enough to log onto predictionbook and judge their only prediction. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by rlourie on 2023-01-09.
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I will graduate College ( 100% confidence )
Created by SRA311CK on 2021-04-04; known on 2022-01-16; judged right by Goddess on 2022-04-30.
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roommate has covid ( 25% confidence )
Created by technillogue on 2022-01-03; known on 2022-01-17; judged wrong by Goddess on 2022-04-30.
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Personal – it will take me less than 2 months to find a job ( 85% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2021-11-15; judged wrong by Goddess on 2022-04-30.
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Personal – My new job will be in the technology sector ( 45% confidence )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2021-11-15; judged right by Goddess on 2022-04-30.
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A guest character (not from a Blizzard universe) to be released in Heroes of the Storm within 5 years, conditional on the game still up by that time. ( 7% confidence )
Created by timujin on 2017-03-29; known on 2022-03-29; judged wrong by rlourie on 2022-04-28.
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Nothing ( 100% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2021-08-02; known on 2021-08-02; judged right by God on 2022-04-27.
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Biden’s approval will fall by 1%. ( 82% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-21; known on 2021-09-20; judged right by God on 2022-04-27.
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I will find my niche within EA ( 5% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by raypsyd@optonline.net on 2021-08-29; known on 2022-01-03; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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I will be alive on my 33rd birthday. ( 49% confidence; 3 wagers; 7 comments )
Created by ZLM on 2014-02-11; known on 2022-01-30; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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I will get into a debate with a close friend about having kids and fighting climate change ( 21% confidence; 4 wagers )
Created by _galvo_ on 2022-01-17; known on 2022-02-27; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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liz will die of covid by feb 27 ( 42% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by issobel on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-02-27; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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The wuhan wet market did not facilitate the spread of Covid-19 ( 25% confidence; 3 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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Joe Biden's renewed interest in the Lab Leak theory was entirely politically motivated. ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers; 1 comment )
Created by EricClampton on 2021-06-28; known on 2022-03-05; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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alex will cry within the next three weeks ( 37% confidence; 2 wagers )
Created by issobel on 2022-02-21; known on 2022-03-07; judged wrong by God on 2022-04-27.
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Sometime within calendar year 2022, Ooga leaves Ashley's embrace for long enough to log onto predictionbook and judge their only prediction. ( 12% confidence; 3 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by PseudonymousUser on 2022-04-07; known on 2023-01-01; judged wrong by rlourie on 2023-01-09.
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Marine le Pen will win the French presidential election in 2022. ( 15% confidence; 9 wagers )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2022-05-01; judged wrong by edrevo on 2022-04-25.
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Macron will be elected president in 2022 ( 79% confidence; 10 wagers; 3 comments )
Created by mathieu on 2022-04-06; known on 2022-04-25; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-04-25.
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Emmanuel Macron will win the French presidential elections in 2022. ( 70% confidence; 15 wagers; 2 comments )
Created by Tot on 2021-09-06; known on 2022-05-01; judged right by Baeboo on 2022-04-25.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] none of these parties ( 1% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] FDP (liberal party) ( 2% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] AfD (nationalist party) ( 2% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.
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[After this years election the German chancellor will be from] CDU or CSU (conservative party) ( 40% confidence )
Created by Konsti on 2021-04-02; known on 2022-03-01; judged wrong by amadeu on 2022-04-21.